There's encouraging agreement between GFS Op and Para and GEM for a north-easterly setting in around about 5th February.

Hope so and tired of seeing impatient mild blips interfering so hope it now removed and from end of Jan to early Feb stay cold all the time.  Seem Gem was the leading models and now others follow suit so hope ECM will follow it so it will be nailed on.  The mild weather can wait until our winter is over  in early March then get in for warm dry Spring.

Will it be in range of the ECM?

Ooops! Apologies, just noticed ECM goes out to t240. 😳

Here we go again Saint!... Cusp buddies

Can today be the night? Maybe tonight is the day?

There’s a pattern where the 00Zs are progressive then the 06 and 12Zs more blocked.

I’m looking for a 00Z set that keeps the Scandy high theme - that would be a decent pointer IMO

😊😂

Should show as today is 27th so it near Feb now when the easterly will start from the opening days.

Seem my area again in good spot for the snow at the weekend, a right move to live here only downside missing the warm 25-35C days in Epsom as it hard to get it in here that high for long period of times.

GFSP loses the plot a bit later on in the run. 

However, the GEFS mean looks pretty good at 300 hours, plenty of heights to the north.

Following on from the "doughnut" jet over the North Pole the other day, the GFS and GFS(P) not only continue to show this, but both inflate a >1060hPa high near or over the Pole. That's certainly raised an eyebrow, as it's exceptionally rare to get that high a pressure up there!

(GFS)

(GFS(P))

You have to think that if we do get a high that's that high high up in the Arctic then the odds of an easterly must surely improve...

And Easterly to deliver true deep cold of -2 to -5C day time maxes I required for.

P11 might be just what the doctor ordered. Might even breach the Kent snow shield.

I worry that a High centred more or less over the North Pole might be too far away to give us an easterly. I'd have thought it made low pressure at say 65N quite likely, which isn't what we want.

Gsp a thing of beauty interesting ecm extended has had this support for a while in the second week of Feb tomorrow’s

 extended ecm  run will be interesting 

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-anomaly-mslp?base_time=202101250000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202102150000

ECM has a big snow event M4 north upto Manchester across to Norwich 5cm to 15cm widely . Only 72h

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=72&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

Is there no end to this easterly influence? The ECM seems to be on board for this scenario too. 

Hopefully adjusts south ever so slightly.

London does ok about  5cm ish obviously long way to go but good to see.

ECM has another big snow event at 144 this one further north from about Midlands north.

Bet it doesn't breach the Hampshire one though. The southern flank of the  Hampshire snow shield is one of the best in Europe I'd wager.. it's northern being close to 50 miles inland and nearer to that poxy M4 corridor is  little weak though.

Surely surely we have to tap into some of this Scandinavian action at some point....surely ? 

Look at that heat building over the Mediterranean. I'd say we southernmost southerners have more chance of tapping into that then sub -10C 850's from Scandinavia 

Well a full house of easterlies but just look at the temp gradient. +15c in Sardinia-15c in Denmark 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

12z ENS - I see there is STILL a lot of scatter: