I'm liking GEM's take on the Saturday snow event gives my area a few Cms. Ecm is similar not quite as good.

 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=60&mode=2&carte=2

 

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I share all the concerns this morning but that is a very, very good mean. 

Of course the EPS could be completely wrong but for a mean chart that is a very clear signal. 

I like the way the focus of cold is an eastern Scotland as it means there’s the chance of a proper easterly (rather than one with HP over the UK with an easterly through the channel). 

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=378&mode=1&carte=1

After our easterly cold it will dive to East Med after having a very warm spell prior to that and Cyprus just very close to -10C near the coast with -8C over the island giving possible heavy snow in Nicosia over night since 4th Feb 1950 at -10C uppers and 45cm.  I know is far away in FI but if you are living there you have higher chance of getting it than the UK for FI charts to come off.  

The ECM mean on 0z at 240 hours is very, very encouraging. It's not something you would see very often, with anomalous heights to our north and an Easterly wind with 850s close to or below -5c.
This sort of mean is something that does generate interest in me, because it suggests a higher than normal level of agreement.
Couple that with the other big 3 all looking largely similar means there is a lot more hope of a significant cold spell brewing.
And no, my account hasn't been hacked, this really is me! 🤣

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Decent looking charts, the chase is on and interest levels high. If you can’t enjoy chasing then might as well just look out the window every morning. Decent easterly please

A metric I use when tracking easterlies (been rare recently) is the De Bilts. For a location in Holland but a good signal for impending easterlies.
https://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagse/?r=midden&type=eps_pluim
The dps have dipped which is good but 2m Ts not quite in the cold easterly range at the moment. You need to be seeing at least -5s in De Bilt (a la the extended control) to pretty much guarantee convective snow here.

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Meanwhile for this weekend the trusty iPhone app (which picked out last Sunday’s snow over a week ahead, albeit after quite a few false alarms earlier in winter!) has now got 100% chance of snow on Saturday and 60% on Sunday, with the temperature down to 3C both days now.

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Slight backtrack in cold uppers around the 6th otherwise trend is the same ...for it to turn colder from 4th or 5th but there appears to be more scatter than in the 18z ens. But good to see some sub -10c uppers.

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Have you ever thought of moving 10 or 20 miles inland? It would probably make a huge difference. (And the same question goes to our Folkestone and Solent correspondents.)

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ECM clusters on 7th Feb consist of 3 groups all showing eaterlies

 https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/cluster_plot_legA?base_time=202101280000&cluster=264_360&parameter=1000

Martin

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No need. I just get in the car and drive for 5 minutes to get my snow kicks. 

Believe it or not I've experienced 4 snow events here at this balmy SE coast location (not massive, just a cm or two) just a few minutes away from my back yard this winter.

4th December, 8th January, 16th January and 25th January. 

With potentially more again this weekend for a time before it turns milder again.

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Whilst my esteemed friend Michael carefully considers his response, I’ll briefly give you my position. I’m as aware as anyone living in this locale of the sometimes dramatic differences in winter  in only a few miles, but I confess the draw of the ocean will always win over the odd elevation related snowfall. If I couldn’t walk down to the sea, especially in the Covid era, I’d probably go mad.

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True but around the 6th a lot of the spread is at the cold end of the scale.

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Considering what people were getting excited about before it is! The reason is the GFS ensemble mean has shown a colder trend for two consecutive runs now and the mean is somewhat more valid anyway as there is a more distinct cluster. It is the most significant cold trend in the mid term for a while. I agree though, you wouldn't call it as decisive.

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Many times actually 🙂 But the house prices go up significantly the further north in Hampshire you go. Plus these days with having kids, the disruption in relocating is undesirable. Sometimes (not often) we get it lucky - The memorable 02/12/2010 snowfall deposited far more on the coastal areas than it did further inland.

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That does surprise me, I'm not expecting anything other than cold rain down here. later next week is when our turn may come

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^^^^ 

Very much this (what Neil said) and the proximity to amenities work etc. far outweighs any hobby like snow-chasing, which I can normally do when it doesn't come to me. Or at least when we're not in a pandemic with travel restrictions.

I'm afraid, I'm just going to have to stick to the moaning until winter arrives.  It would be no fun if it were straightforward, although even my tolerance of cold grey nothingness is running out.

Anyway back to the models. Cold grey nothingness sums it up. 

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GFS says rain down here

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GFS has my favourite weather event rain to snow as the cold undercuts. Looks like a decent run for a cold spell

GFS op poor and shows how it can go wrong

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Our old foe the Azores high looks like spoiling the party on the 6z:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=6&time=222&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

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typical. we always find a way to grab defeat 

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Indeed, I can identify with that completely...Having lived in Chi for nearly 20 years, I quickly worked out that the chances of snow here are very limited.. but we have a great climate here [apart from lack snow] and proximity to Chi Harbour and the south downs...[where the chances of snow increases from minimal to slight I've been fortunate too, to have some winter walking Alpine breaks in Austria/Germany and Switzerland that more than compensates for the lack of snow here.. and the prospect of longer days, spring bulbs that are just getting close to bursting out... and cherry blossom...and my increasing age... so definitely no plans to move to a snowier area, much as I still love the white stuff!

GFS op sinks the Scandi high but there may be a second bite on the way.

Parallel looks similar to its previous run but everything a bit further south.

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