It’s an option and in isolation possible.

I much prefer the GFSP route this morning - clean transition 

GFS06z op looks like a collapser and is in keeping with an increased number of the GEFS00z perts that I mentioned earlier.

Yes, disappointing in the longer term too 

Am I missing something

GFS 6z Op is cold and potentially very snow in FI unless I've got a weird cached version.

Spins a big LP through during initial easterly and rebuilds with massive blocking after that.

Yes, that really would be the one for the S.E so we can safely assume it won't happen !

Surely you're not suggesting this could be one of the more extreme options? 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_366_2.png 

I know. Some puzzling comments above. Maybe reverse psychoolgy time of year !

Well I just wonder

You forget, when it looks likely that a cold spell will happen, then everybody starts looking for the perfect cold spell, with beautifully orientated Scandi highs, perfectly placed med lows, and if this doesn't happen, then it just isn't good enough.

Look at one of the largest snowfalls of 1979, it came from a tiny finger of high pressure.

How can you call this set up poor?

There is so much northern blocking and no Atlantic LP system trying to rush in or Azores HP and this low to our east is moving south westwards and could bring snow in from the east: - It is in FI range and will see where this sits amongst it ENS members but look's perfect doesn't it? - Just 300z away.

It's not poor its just 300hrs away. I think he is referring to the fact that the initial Easterly is scuppered by the Azors ridging in and killing the cold flow  and then we are relying on a reload to get to the position you have screen shot above.

To be honest it's an Easterly, so we're going to get a few wobbles right up yo the wire (if it happens)

Quite well actually. Below average from the 4th Feb and then mean drops to -7C and stays thereabouts but rises to -5C at the end. Not only that there is a supportive cluster around the Op run at a degree or so lower.

and away from deep FI where charts seldom ever verify here is the GFS 6z up to 144 hours.

An unsettled and mild picture with rain at times. The cold air never really gets away from Scotland where snow will continue to feature over higher ground away from coasts.

Temperatures fall from T+168 and T850 mean is -7C at 240 hrs. Not what you'd call nailed on for sure but more promising than anything else this winter for the S.E snow starved corner!.

Well todays runs have woke me up a bit...the GFS 06z is about as cold as it gets for the uk. Long way away but the ensembles support is encouraging. 

We live right on the coast and very rarely get snow, in fact the snow we had last Sunday was the heaviest since 2013 and that only amounted to a cm! The children were moaning about it, but the benefits of living within walking distance of the Gower beaches and coastline is ample compensation. 

Pert 10 please

-40℃ in Tyumen, Russia ❄️

Credit: (ig) sidoorovam pic.twitter.com/rPHz6PMYV2

— Nature is Amazing ❤️ (@amazing_nature0) January 28, 2021

Kent in 2 weeks time 😂