It’s an option and in isolation possible.

I much prefer the GFSP route this morning - clean transition 

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Not sure GFS is poor shows a potential sliding low into cold continental air could result in a decent snowfall somewhere with prolonged cold after it’s sunk into Europe. Anyway won’t happen like it’s shown!

If you look at the NH view on the GFS op at 288 - almost a true cross-polar flow - you’d be forgiven for thinking it’s about to unleash the hounds from hell.
GFSP not too shabby either 🙂

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GFS06z op looks like a collapser and is in keeping with an increased number of the GEFS00z perts that I mentioned earlier.

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Yes, disappointing in the longer term too 

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Am I missing something

GFS 6z Op is cold and potentially very snow in FI unless I've got a weird cached version.

Spins a big LP through during initial easterly and rebuilds with massive blocking after that.

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The key difference between the GFS 6z op and parallel at 192, is the shortwave in the op located to the north of Norway. It prevents a clean build of pressure over Northern Scandi and displaces high pressure further West to sit just South of Iceland:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=6&time=192&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

This allows the Azores high to ridge and hang around long enough to scupper any chance of a Scandi high.

The para has a clean pressure build to the NE at 192.

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Yes, that really would be the one for the S.E so we can safely assume it won't happen !

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GFS is possibly the best run I have seen in a long time - decent chances for snow throughout and with the slider 200 miles further west could be very newsworthy indeed

I will be really interested to see how supported the 6z GFS is in the ensembles!

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Surely you're not suggesting this could be one of the more extreme options? 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_366_2.png 

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I know. Some puzzling comments above. Maybe reverse psychoolgy time of year !

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Well I just wonder

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You forget, when it looks likely that a cold spell will happen, then everybody starts looking for the perfect cold spell, with beautifully orientated Scandi highs, perfectly placed med lows, and if this doesn't happen, then it just isn't good enough.

Look at one of the largest snowfalls of 1979, it came from a tiny finger of high pressure.

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How can you call this set up poor?

There is so much northern blocking and no Atlantic LP system trying to rush in or Azores HP and this low to our east is moving south westwards and could bring snow in from the east: - It is in FI range and will see where this sits amongst it ENS members but look's perfect doesn't it? - Just 300z away.

 

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A NE / E flow is well supported up to 204 would say 90% showing this direction varying levels of cold. Where they all go from there who knows but support growing. If anyone tells their friends they are responsible for it going wrong

It's not poor its just 300hrs away. I think he is referring to the fact that the initial Easterly is scuppered by the Azors ridging in and killing the cold flow  and then we are relying on a reload to get to the position you have screen shot above.

To be honest it's an Easterly, so we're going to get a few wobbles right up yo the wire (if it happens)

Quite well actually. Below average from the 4th Feb and then mean drops to -7C and stays thereabouts but rises to -5C at the end. Not only that there is a supportive cluster around the Op run at a degree or so lower.

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and away from deep FI where charts seldom ever verify here is the GFS 6z up to 144 hours.

An unsettled and mild picture with rain at times. The cold air never really gets away from Scotland where snow will continue to feature over higher ground away from coasts.

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Temperatures fall from T+168 and T850 mean is -7C at 240 hrs. Not what you'd call nailed on for sure but more promising than anything else this winter for the S.E snow starved corner!.

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Well todays runs have woke me up a bit...the GFS 06z is about as cold as it gets for the uk. Long way away but the ensembles support is encouraging. 

We live right on the coast and very rarely get snow, in fact the snow we had last Sunday was the heaviest since 2013 and that only amounted to a cm! The children were moaning about it, but the benefits of living within walking distance of the Gower beaches and coastline is ample compensation. 

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Pert 10 please

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-40℃ in Tyumen, Russia ❄️

Credit: (ig) sidoorovam pic.twitter.com/rPHz6PMYV2

— Nature is Amazing ❤️ (@amazing_nature0) January 28, 2021

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Kent in 2 weeks time 😂