Nice to see -12C so widespread by 240 on the ECM - like GFS, it delivers a textbook easterly blast.

And yes, that supports snow even right on the coast in Aberdeen!

https://www.wxcharts.com/?panel=default&model=ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf&region=uk&chart=overview,850temp,wind10mkph,snowdepth&run=00&step=240&plottype=10&lat=51.500&lon=-0.250&skewtstep=0

(ECM precip chart for 240).

 

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being in Essex that was obviously for me! 😂 

Aberdeen could do ok from that setup fingers crossed for 3cm!

Overall very good output this morning an easterly looks almost certain now . Any detail impossible but significant snow somewhere likely.  NE England sweet spot at the moment. 

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Whilst GEM, which has been a lead on this for a while, goes shortwave mad I’m remaining cautious. My rule of cross-model agreement with the big 3 at 120 is a way off yet, and although GEM is not one of the ‘big 3’, I’ll need to see it come back into line by Monday before committing.
Some incredible charts though - GFS op and ECM would bring serious disruption.

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Yes, it looks decent enough elsewhere, with decent cross model consistency between the ECM and GFS runs even at quite long range.

Wake me up when a northerly or SWly comes. A possibility of snow if the coldest of the easterly options, over. 200hr, away materialise doesn’t fill me with much excitement currently. 
I would go as far as to say I would prefer the GEM option.

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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/gem/run/gens-0-1-384.png

To keep Doc happy ☺

LOL thanks. 

(Just ignore me by the way, I’m just sick of what seems like a never-ending easterly influence. Perhaps the North Sea will freeze in a few months )

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BBC being very optimistic last night about the prospects of a very cold easterly, backed up  by http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 though perhaps less emphasis on the 'very'.

GFS is rather 'toe-in-the-water' with the trend to S-ly tracking lows continuing (Sat 30th, Mon 1st, Fri 5th, with the strongest on Mon 8th) but none really connect with any really cold feed, then it gives up, Thu 11th bringing SW-lies.

GEFS in the S temp stays average to Fri 5th and then takes a noticeable dip (many runs 10C below norm) to Tue 9th followed by a quick flip of the majority to very mild in most runs. Dryis in the cold spell, damp at other times. Scotland is cold and dry at first (to Tue 2nd) but then as above.

ECM broadly matches GFS  - I'm less excited by it than other people posting here.

 

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  There's many a slip between cup and lip, and with so many things requiring to slot into place with perfect synchronisation to deliver a snowy frigid easterly/ north easterly here, I remain deeply sceptical.  I am a firm adherent to the cross model agreement at 120 rule,  or even as little as t72.  So, for me, its a case of waiting before showing even a scintilla of expectation.  I'm not even that moved by the charts on offer as they are somewhat convoluted and waaaay out in FI  #deep caution#

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I'd say 2 years ago was a textbook easterly, the ECM is more of an end of the line easterly, Western areas wouldn't see PPN from the East on this run.

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I think the caution in here this morning is wise and expected.

If we can get to Monday, with upgrades over the weekend, with good CMA I’ll be happy.

Still, even then as we well know, the route to an easterly is always fraught with danger.

If this time next week, we are in the same boat as today, I’ll be throwing the towel in on this winter.

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To sum things up, between now and the 10th of February the GEFS t850hPa mean is only above -5°C for about 12 hours. That’s when the precipitation (rain) is modelled.

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I am less concerned about the arrival of the easterly - although your caution is wise, but there are increasing signals that it might be a fairly short-lived affair - 2 days duration...but of course at this range it is still all to play for and there are still big swings day to day. The average is useful, and delivers 2 days of serious cold, but not the sustained sub -5 that this averaged melange was showing yesterday. Marvellous model watching though and great to have a bit of excitement to look forward to in these drear times of lock-down. 

Did you see the snow-ballers fined? What do you all think - outside and harmless fun - or reckless activity in close proximity? Being a child at heart - I lean towards the harmless fun, but I guess it depends how close they got to each other. Having said that, I am not sure I would have joined in....

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Fear is turning the world crazy.

 

I am cautiously optimistic regarding the models, still all to play for.

I'd say 3 years but time does fly and if you're not counting the last 12 months I wouldn't blame you. 

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Oh some people never learn 🤣 you could be right but we're still talking a week away so I wouldnt be counting any chickens yet.  We have seen cross model agreement (which we don't have today) go wrong at less than 5 days out.

One more cold spell I can go with but then mild please !

Can see Kent doing very well out of this, reminds me of the February 84 set up where the arc of snow showers kept feeding over from Northern Germany for 3 days.

Mostly an accumulate at night ,slow thaw by day affair but the final afternoon brought a very prolonged heavy snow shower which delivered 6 inches.

After the winters of 78 79  81/82  there was a short spell of mildness in UK winters, but this spell was the beginning of the great mid 80s  clusters of very cold winters.

I wonder if this is the start of a new cluster????

 

 

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I’d forgotten about that red warning. What happened with that, was it a fail everywhere? I seem to remember Wales got a decent dump didn’t it?

 

My enthusiasm is tempered this morning by the variability between runs and also the prospect of everything heading too far west and letting mild air in.

The GEFS look good though for 4-5 days of cold before a significant uptick at the end. Oh and now 91% snow chance for the weekend on the London ens.

 

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Strong signal for a cold incursion but for it to be quite short lived. It lasts a bit longer in the north. To me it suggests a breakdown from the southwest being the favoured option. 

 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/gefs-tables.aspx?run=00&fv=tmp850&loc=Edinburgh&lat=56&lon=-3.5&p=&cty=

 

 

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Whoa ! They've gone belly up at T72/96 never mind this time range. Never forget Dec 2012.

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Actually it looks like the signal has weakened since yesterday's 06z update which is still available here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/gefs-tables.aspx?run=06&fv=tmp850&loc=London&lat=51.5&lon=0&p=&cty=

I suspect what has changed is the number of runs going down to or below -10 has increased but there are fewer in the -4C and below cluster. To me things still look quite uncertain. I'd not be surprised to see things u turning because the weather in the UK is for turning. 

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crude way of doing it 850’s there could be a static high with cold pooling as well - not looked at wind direction??

In contrast the signal here in the medium to longer term is stronger than it has ever been with a 00z GEFS t850hPa mean value of -9°C on the 7th of February. A remarkably low mean value at that range.

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  1985 was pretty good too for the SE especially Kent 

De Bilts getting there but not there yet.
EC OP also on the cold side of the envelope so more reasons for caution.
https://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagse/?r=midden&type=eps_pluim 

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