Old "Muck"Doc-cold :D

It was the first to pick this up, so has to be taken seriously. Sad, but could be onto something

Brian mentions a possible attack from the SW later in the run from GFS , I'm happy with that ...sort of , it can deliver big snowfall amounts and sometimes struggle , all a very long way off though and lots to look forward to but we need to get the cold here first .

 Good evening JB.

Oh Christ look who it is 😀😀😀

Ensembles firming up on a cold spell from 6th of February but also more support for it being a 3-4 day wonder. I'd take that at this stage if I eventually got some lying snow.

Old School synoptics deserve old school posters 😂

Hello stranger 😎

After a further 23mm in the last 24hrs looks like we are about to be hit by another clump of torrential rain this morning!

I think there is huge uncertainty still at the moment of just how cold it's going to get. I wouldn't be surprised if we see whole ensemble sets flip colder over the next couple of days. Maybe even flip milder if we are unlucky. 

Yes, the longer outlook on the above chart is actually milder than yesterday. So some caution still needed. But that could be due to a warming trend later in that period. 

Yes . I like the model this morning esp the ECM  but caution is needed. What annoys me is the fact that the closer we get to the more reliable time frame in the models the more the uncertainty continues when we should have more certainty and cross model ageeement we have the opposite. 😠 a bit frustrating really. Also the latter stages if the model look milder. 

The GFS 00Z Op run gives us southerners a Colorado like temperature flip on Feb 10th. 850Pa temps jump from -8C to +5C in 24 hours. That would be quite a day if it verified:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=2&run=0&time=288&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=12#mapref
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=2&run=0&time=312&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=12#mapref

Surely not a northerly? 

This is shaping up to be another cold run in FI by the look of things.

Yep a decent run by the looks of things 

Has the daily express run a story on “beast from the east “ and "snowmaggedan” yet, if so , it’s doomed 🤣🤣

There's always a bit of a risk in this type of setup - we need LP over the continent to help advect cold our way and to inject a bit more moisture/energy in to the mix but if this is a little too far North or orientated so it drags up too much milder air from southern Europe, things go a bit wrong for the far south.

Up to T210 the 6z op just about keeps the far south east in cold enough air that despite the warmer uppers it's snow not rain, whereas areas very slightly further North are under much colder uppers with no concerns. Post that point things look to warm IMBY though as the main cold pool moves through and we draw up slightly milder air. It'll be interesting to see where it goes from here.

Overall pattern though is good and the trend is good so far at least - get the pattern to T72 or so and then worry about how cold and any precip

The 06z is rolling out. It's like pulling hen's teeth trying to get that cold across the line in the South. This weekend doesn't look cold enough for snow South of Norfolk and the Midlands although more marginal muck is possible further south. The Easterly remains on a knife edge for the South in terms of depth of cold. We really need the high to sink and the low over France to do the same. In years gone by the low over France would be great as it would drag in cold continental air but it is perilously close to dragging up the hot air from Europe sourced from East Africa! 50 miles further North and that low could wreck it for the south. On the other hand it gives the potential for copious amounts of snow anywhere in the UK. It really is going to be a nail biter in a weeks time. 

Another variation on the theme from the 6z, with the +ve height anomaly heading from Greenland, day 11 on will be pretty outrageous.

Simultaneous post almost identical post to mine 9 secs apart! Same S.E perspective, IMBY but we have fared the worst this winter in every way!

I may believe this if wass at +12hr