Quite some run this GFS  6z taking us to the promised land. Wow!

 

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Cold wins in the end on the 06z Op. In fact if that happened mid February would be spectacular! But it is just the OP. The thing I like when you get extreme runs like this the inevitable attenuation nearer the time is still often good enough. Hopefully ensemble mean continues to reinforce this.  Will be squeaky time from here on in though.

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only one week away till the start of that evolution though 

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Any evolution starts now Fairweather .
Decent easterly on most runs today including the NASA just out .

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Might be an extreme on the ENS but not necessarily an outlier, we could be on the verge of an historic Feb

Yes, absolutely for that particular evolution but the broad pattern of high pressure from the north and some form of colder influence from the east seems to be pretty well established and it would take a change for that not to come to fruition in some form.

It would be remarkable if it was in the manner shown in the 06z GFS op, and as you say it is one op run at over a week away. For that reason it is of interest value and entertainment, but little more. I'm curious to see if the GFS 06z ensemble mean will reach -10ºC (t850hPa) here around the 5-7th of February. To me that would be a very strong signal at that range. (One that could of course be eroded over time).

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Is there a jet stream forecast available on The Weather Outlook, and if so how do I access it?

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Does anyone think that the models have now (finally) picked up on that SSW on 4th/5th January and the other on 16th January and the two reversals? - it is a 2-3 week time lag to have an effect and this time frame sounds about right? - We saw the same with BFTE which occurred from 24th February until 3rd March 2018 following the SSW of 7th/8th February 2018? The time frame or would you say this isn't related to the SSW we had? - Clearly the slack easterly we had earlier this month wasn't SSW related - but do you think this is?
Back to models the Op looks like it could be an outlier but wouldn't discount it and would be keen to see where this Operational run sits with it's ENS members - if this came off we could be looking at the coldest spell of February weather since that of 2018 and it's occurring much earlier too on top of the bonus that Scandinavia and eastern Europe including western Russia is much colder.

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If the pattern of the winter continues, the appearance of such a scenario will wax and wane until the time is at hand, when it will deliver a cm or two to a limited chunk of the country, with a lucky few seeing maybe 10cm, but all the snow will be gone within a few days.

This winter is hugely frustrating - lovely eye-candy charts that ultimately bring a meagre gruel of a wintry spell for that vast majority

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This is complicated so no easy answer. Are the current projections (not happened yet) SSW related? Yes IMO, because the disruption to the PV had already happened and what we see now is changed in wave propagation and amplification in the N Pacific ‘utilising’ the displaced PV to encourage much higher blocking. You can get it without an SSW of course, but I think it’s helped.

Will it be a three day wonder or something more prolonged and even historic - time will tell, but there’s a chance of the latter.

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Normally I would agree with your gloominess, but given the consistency of the signals in the ensembles I am a little more optimistic this time round, although you may very well end up being right.

This is the 06z GFS mean in exactly one week's time: 

 Although, as with politics, a week can be a long time in model watching.

 

Edit: An encouraging update from a local/northern perspective is that the ensemble -10ºC runs count has now reached 21 on the short ensembles (up to 192hr) so definitely getting closer. I will check the full set when they are out.

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Looks to me the run of ‘this’ decade.

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Holy grail stuff from the 06z op at t300+. But again the initial Easterly moderating and shortening for the South and only just makes it.

I hope we don't end up forever chasing reloads in the t240+ range.

As ever I look forward to seeing where this op sits amongst its ensemble peers.

P5 on the GEFS is quite something

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Control heading same direction cold in 8/9 days

It's the temperature gradient from north to south Europe that really stands out. Surely a recipe for some mega blizzards on the dividing line across Germany and Poland etc?

 

The GFSP is an exercise in frustration this morning, with the Atlantic just doing enough to keep the cold a short way to our east.

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Here's an early lunch for cold weather fans. GFS 06z from 141 to 384 hours. The animation shows 850hPa temperatures across Europe. (Rumours that it is a mild outlier in the ensemble are likely to prove unfounded 😂) Charts here https://t.co/qCFLbeqUDW pic.twitter.com/QqB3mLIDcU

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) January 29, 2021

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Are you sure your browser's not cached? http://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/run/gfseuw-1-204.png?6 (This is as far out as has been published at time of writing)

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Really can't complain at this one for a Day 8 GEFS mean.

 

 

PS yes I was referring to the 0Z parallel run. The 6Z looks better thus far.

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GFSP looks fine to me!

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GEFS in isolation at 204hrs
The OP certainly on the colder side but there’s plenty supporting it - and some that go way positive still for balance.
This is going to run for a few more days and I’d love to see GEM back in the frame (my new go to model)

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Actually on the short ensembles the op run is part of the milder cluster until day 7. Several colder options there.

 

By 264 hours the GEFS mean is about 2C colder across most of England than the 0Z at 276 hours. In fact the -6C line is in almost the exact same place as the -4C line on the last run.

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GEM is very good for precipitation type in the shortish term. Quite underrated!

 

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Can I be picky and ask for a correction 100 miles south 😁

If there is one thing I am scared of at the moment is corrections further south :P

 

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