Not today.

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I believe they do.....

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....tomorrow. :)

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If Sunday does turn out "interesting" then meteo deserve some credit as for the last few days their automated forecasts on the BBC having been showing sleet for down here.

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One to preserve perhaps?

😉

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With Tally's oft repeated comments about chopping and changing in mind, here are the cluster options for Saturday (T+72 to T+96): just to show how tiny changes can have a huge impact in a particular location.

Six variations on a theme at such short range.

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/streaming/20210127-1340/0b/ps2png-worker-commands-8b495bd5d-jg4l4-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-K2q5OU.png

 

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Six shades of grey?

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The trend through the first third of February hasn't really changed much recently. If anything the signal for higher pressure has strengthened and I think it is something the Met flagged up in their written forecast. 

 

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In the shorter term 6z ICON EU suggests another snow event in parts of the south on Saturday.

 

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There are, of course, 50 ensemble members.....

😉

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Yes, I noticed that: the 06z ICON has put a little more energy into the frontal trough on Saturday and taken a little more out of Sunday's.

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None of us are getting any younger; stamina levels and all that 

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East London snow shield working wonders again 🤮

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I only see three but I’m told it’s an age thing 😂

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3 hrs later looks good for you, but massive uncertainty around the whole thing. 

 

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The northernmost extent showing as close to the same place as last weekend's snow, before slipping away southwards again.

IE, just spitting distance to the south of MBY

 

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It is an unusual winter season.

I have never known such uncertainty both at short and long range almost each week - both from the models and the forecasters

Mid range looks quite clear....cool to mild next week and then..............

The successive SSWs create a higher degree of atmospheric chaos which code and humans alike cannot decipher.

Mind you, keeps us interested 

As I just posted in the media thread... from 13C tomorrow to possible snow at the weekend. GFSP looks good for Saturday, but the forecasts talk about Sunday instead.

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Upgrades on the 12s so far , UKMO looks to keep the marginal slider fun going out to day 6, and GFS going for an easterly again by day 8.

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https://twitter.com/peacockreports/status/1354464729931116553?s=21 

This is brilliant. You can see how the forecast has changed for Sunday in the last 4-6 runs.

It’s shows how the influence of the Atlantic has waned as the forecast time gets closer.

@ Brian. Idea for a new tool able to choose a timeframe and then loop it over the same time frame for the last 6 runs.

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Yes i agree that would be a useful tool. It's possible using the archived runs but very time consuming to do it manually. A way to show how the models have trended over the last few days for a given date would be great.

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The GFS 12z para is stunning in FI. 850s of -12 getting in the East of Scotland at 204z:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=1&runpara=1

 

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GEM also a beautiful run. Ends up like this.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gem&var=2&run=12&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

 

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Odds on a easterly shortening this evening. 

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