Just as well the op GFS isn't the be all and end all. The GEFS still shows a good chance of -10 being breached, indeed more likely than not in the short part of the ensembles (for London).

Solar heating - I'm pretty much the biggest proponent of that messing things up on this forum, but even I don't consider it a factor until we're in the last two weeks of February.

EDIT: The op actually has -9.9C as its low point, on the 8th. It pretty much gets there.

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Look, the fact your positive is a good sign. I think I got out of the wrong side of bed. FWIW, you didn’t really buy into the last easterly and you were right not to with how it planned out. You seem upbeat this morning, and that’s good enough for me.

I’ve looked through the suite and your right. There are some great runs from our perspective 

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Today's ensemble watch - the highest number so far. It's also worth mentioning that there are a couple of -14.something members, and the majority of members get down to -8 or -9, just not quite the magic -10. As far as GEFS is concerned, a cold snap, if not spell, is on the way.

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...and I thought you hated easterlies...

I do. This one, if (and it is a big if) it turns out the way the GFS and its ensemble data are showing, may be just on the right side of marginal but there are still quite a few cold rain options out there still. A true northerly would rarely bring such issues.

At the moment things look interesting (putting the ECM op runs aside which may not be a wise thing to do, even if its ensembles look fine).

On the subject of the ECM. Here is its op run take on day 10 this morning https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_240_2.png 

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The ECM doesn’t want to drop that low south. God it’s awful run.

The razor blades are going to be out I. Force this morning.

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Only if you pick one operational run of one model in isolation. Few would be naive enough to do that. Surely?

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Lets wait an hour or two and I suspect you’ll see the reaction.

I understand what your saying Michael, but successive runs from the ECM have been poor.

0z, 12z and 0z today. If ECM isn’t onboard it’s a big worry. 

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Poor as in terms of showing a totally different scenario in each successive op run? I agree. The consistency is garbage with the t850s in this op run at day ten being around 15 (yes 15°C) higher than the previous run. 

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What a mess this morning every option on the table . ECM is awful and very mild by day 10. Pick of the bunch is the GFS Para with gfs ,UKMO and GEM all somewhere in between. Impossible to make a call at the moment especially when the mighty ECM being so crap.

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I might agree if the ECM mean shows around +8°C at t850hPa here at day ten. Fancy a bet? 

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Very decent cold cluster around the 6th - 9th but still massive scatter. GEFS represents all model output this morning being all over the place with every February on offer from 1947 to 1779 (look it up).

 

 

 

 

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Hopefully it's more like -8c,  but we dont want our best models Op being such a constant dick do we .

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The thing is it cannot be considered to be the best performing op if its op runs show four different scenarios in four consecutive runs. Instantly that cuts its accuracy (in this instance) to a max of 25%.

Edit: I think I will stick with the mean.  https://stream.ecmwf.int/data/gorax-green-005/data/scratch/20210131-0730/a6/render-gorax-green-005-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-eiYRs2.png

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They've also been unsupported by the ensembles.

That continues this morning, incidentally, as the op is yet again "off on one" in the latter part of its run.

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The question I'd ask Darren is why? Why are the ECM ops constantly off on one. There must be a reason or background signal that is causing this. On the 0z we are looking at mid teens at least by day 10. That really would be the end, although for me, exceptional warmth will do just as nicely as a freeze.

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Indeed......Exeter's equivalent of putting polar bears on TWO's front page 

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Spot the difference...

The first chart is the ECM 00z op run, the second is the ensemble mean.

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Forget Day 10 as the output is all over the place, ECM really inconsistent etc.
However if you look at Saturday 00z, currently 144 hours away , apart from the UKMO the -5c 850hpa air is only just approaching my location on the GFS operational and GEM not yet at my location.
ECM not even close. In previous days the cold has been in by then on many models.
So far it looks to me like a blended solution in mid term in the cold air struggling south.

GFS ensemble (and ECM I hear) are consistent in bringing in the cold quicker.

Overall I wouldn't bet on an easterly outbreak as:
ECM operational consistently not interested, a warning sign in the past.
Any significant cold is +144 at best , far into FI.
Trend to blend on the operational which would further struggle to bring in the cold.

Ensembles give some hope.

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A couple of very upbeat posters this morning which is good to see.

The quietness in the MO discussion this morning is probably due to the fact that we have woken up to not see the charts we were expecting/ hoping to see following on from a near full house last night.

Lets face it...Its a mess.

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Actually it ended up being -6°C at that point (in fact for the entire run the mean stayed below -6 and indeed below -8°C for periods).

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This has to be concern, ECM leading the pack:

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz6.html 

Can anyone clarify whether this data follows operationals, or mean output ?

As a veteran of 50 years of weather watching and 20 years plus of internet model watching, today I will take my own advice, go out, get some fresh air as its not 3c and lashing with rain.  I will cast an eye over the 12zs,as I did this morning's runs, I will always start with the ensemble or mean charts and then look at the operatoinals.

Im not expecting any kind of certainty until Tuesday.  (On the basis that if anything snowy for lowlanders in the south materialises, it will manifest by Sunday 7th). Some very tasty charts available for cherry pickers and some horror shows for the manic depressive in you.

The future's uncertain, and the end is always near.

 

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I’m taking the approach of avoiding cherry picking anything this morning. That is the reason I am upbeat.

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Yes an OP hopefully for the bin , massive mild outlier down here as well.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/ecmwfens_display.php?x=314&y=142&run=0&type=0&runpara=0

 

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