Not today.

I believe they do.....

....tomorrow. :)

If Sunday does turn out "interesting" then meteo deserve some credit as for the last few days their automated forecasts on the BBC having been showing sleet for down here.

One to preserve perhaps?

😉

With Tally's oft repeated comments about chopping and changing in mind, here are the cluster options for Saturday (T+72 to T+96): just to show how tiny changes can have a huge impact in a particular location.

Six variations on a theme at such short range.

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/streaming/20210127-1340/0b/ps2png-worker-commands-8b495bd5d-jg4l4-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-K2q5OU.png

Six shades of grey?

The trend through the first third of February hasn't really changed much recently. If anything the signal for higher pressure has strengthened and I think it is something the Met flagged up in their written forecast. 

In the shorter term 6z ICON EU suggests another snow event in parts of the south on Saturday.

There are, of course, 50 ensemble members.....

😉

Yes, I noticed that: the 06z ICON has put a little more energy into the frontal trough on Saturday and taken a little more out of Sunday's.

None of us are getting any younger; stamina levels and all that 

East London snow shield working wonders again 🤮

I only see three but I’m told it’s an age thing 😂

3 hrs later looks good for you, but massive uncertainty around the whole thing. 

The northernmost extent showing as close to the same place as last weekend's snow, before slipping away southwards again.

IE, just spitting distance to the south of MBY

It is an unusual winter season.

I have never known such uncertainty both at short and long range almost each week - both from the models and the forecasters

Mid range looks quite clear....cool to mild next week and then..............

The successive SSWs create a higher degree of atmospheric chaos which code and humans alike cannot decipher.

Mind you, keeps us interested 

Upgrades on the 12s so far , UKMO looks to keep the marginal slider fun going out to day 6, and GFS going for an easterly again by day 8.

Yes i agree that would be a useful tool. It's possible using the archived runs but very time consuming to do it manually. A way to show how the models have trended over the last few days for a given date would be great.

The GFS 12z para is stunning in FI. 850s of -12 getting in the East of Scotland at 204z:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=1&runpara=1

GEM also a beautiful run. Ends up like this.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gem&var=2&run=12&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

Odds on a easterly shortening this evening.