I have found so many of his messages so tiresome I have switched him off always seems to look for the negative.

A very cold chart from JMA at the surface in FI 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=192&mode=1&nh=1 

Loving the ECMs robust fight its displaying with its op. Only concerning factor for me is the fact that for the last couple of runs, it's been the coldest option for me based on the Meteogram for this location.

I find a look at the clusters to be more useful because you can see the representative synoptic patterns.

ECM has just as much chance materialsing as the GEM. ECM if i am correct got this spell correct as well? I know the GEM did well in the build up but ECM stays cold at the surface

GFS is still cold

Milder looking like it may appear mid month but potentially only back to the late february average. 

Not bothered really , as I have said , dry moisture free weather won't do anything this time around ( it seems ) , get a big snowy breakdown pleaseeeee

Good snow event always wins. The snow photo archive doesn’t remember how cold it was, it only shows how deep it was 😜

The point is that it'll all be gone within 24-36 hours. A total waste of snow. Ideally want it staying around for weeks, but a week at the minimum.

I do love people whining about lying snow. 

It is rare to keep good snow lying for long periods. Utopia I suppose . However not sure this spell will do that. May need to be a 24 one hit wonder? 

December was good for me, 5 days of 5-8cm

ICON setting up a major battle on Saturday

The block holding firm to the east - pressure over Kent has increased from 1030mb to 1035mb over the previous 18 hours

http://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2021020812/iconeu-2-120-1.png?08-16

Heavy rain coming in to the SW

http://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2021020812/iconeu-42-120-1.png?08-16

Dew points are -12C to -15C in the NE of France and +10C on the Brest Peninsula

http://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2021020812/iconeu-18-120-1.png?08-16

How far east will that precipitation get before it stalls? The charts suggest the dew points rise above zero ahead of the rain hence why it is not showing as snow anywhere at T120. That may change if it pushes a little further east after T120 into colder air?

Interesting. Is ICON alone on this?

I would say DP look cold enough Midlands Northwards , depends how the front impacts the values

Looks extreme in the huge differences

Surely though with strong mild southerlies over a mild sea won't the mild air get well inland and literally blow the cold away, bring rain to many very quickly and scupper any return to cold for a fair while too?? 

Yes you really want a nice southeasterly flow off a cold continent skimming across the front of the incoming rain and turning it to snow... allowing a period of 12 hours or so of snow before the front stalls with the rain-snow boundary just along the beach. Then slowly and inexorably the cold air pushes back westwards, the snow becomes lighter and eventually stops. Then the clouds clear just before dark and the temperatures plunge to the minus teens....

Sorry where were we?

The stronger the wind, the less time the air will spend over the sea. The English Channel isn't that wide, and the air over northern France should still be cold. So though there would probably be rain on the coast, hopefully there would be snow not too far inland. But a south-easterly would be better than a straight southerly.

Looking at the ICON snow lying charts at T+96 and T+120 as shown on Wetterzentrale, it looks as though between those two times there would be widespread snowfall apart from in the SW. 

And FWIW, the automated Met Office forecast for here for Saturday is snow with a maximum of 3C.

The isobars are aligned almost exactly north-south in the ICON charts which would likely allow milder air in fairly quickly. 

On the other hand, the WRF model at the same time stamp has more of a SE flow and colder DPs as a result

http://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm-eur/runs/2021020818/nmm-2-120-0.png?08-21

http://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm-eur/runs/2021020818/nmm-18-120-0.png?08-21

Not going to happen with this spell Martin , even a frost won't show as it's too dry . I love a freezing Easterly with snow on the ground best way of keeping the longevity , it's rare we miss out so best look West for a breakdown and snow 

Ecm extended range latest 8th Feb Run

8th -15th Feb

High pressure between Scadi and Iceland

Low pressure trying to undercut from the N/W

Shallow low pressure Belarus

Likely outcome cold ese feed probably a limited attack from the S/west

How much energy gets under the block looks open to question

15 -22 Feb

Intense high pressure Scadi

Low pressure mid A

Looks like a Scadi victory cold continues cold s/e feed

Little energy appears to be getting under the block

22- 1 st March

Intense area of high pressure between Scadi and east Scotland

Slow East Feed BI

Very quiet Atlantic No attack in sight

1-8th March

High pressure continues just west off Scotland

Again looks very quiet with probable sharp frost and fog continues.

Cold maybe very cold February likely for BI if Ecm extended is to be believed

Much of Devon and Cornwall snow-covered on the GFS by T+144, with the precipitation band creeping slowly eastwards as the -5 850mb isotherm pushes slowly westwards and reaches the tip of Cornwall. If it was to play out like that, it could be a classic West Country blizzard.