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Brian Gaze
09 February 2021 10:28:57


 


And just to back up my earlier thoughts, day 10 here:-


cor_day10_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png (800×800) (noaa.gov)


I'd be surprised when things filter through if GFS doesn't take a dip due to flipping in the run up to the cold spell but I guess it depends on whether it was just locally it got things wrong or globally. Generally though it had been performing very well (new and old). GEM verifying worse of the big 3 but not an enormous amount in it. 


 


Originally Posted by: Hippydave 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
idj20
09 February 2021 11:00:46


Collapses very quickly. perhaps not realistic. Lets see what the control does


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



But I'd bank it for the drier and milder look about it. Nothing worse than prolonged wet and windy weather after a cold spell. 

Folkestone Harbour. 
Jim-55
09 February 2021 11:01:02


 


 


A few days before this chilly snap started, Carol Kirkwood was playing down the chances of cold and snow for anywhere.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Yes she's just mentioned again that the cold looks likely to win, that was a couple of minutes ago.


 

Previously JimC. joined back then in 2009. Frome, N/E Somerset, 125mtrs asl.
forestedge
09 February 2021 11:01:25


Simon Lee on Twitter just now:
 
ECMWF Euro-Atlantic regimes confident in Scandi blocking dominating the rest of Feb after current NAO-.
GEFS North American regimes now suggesting Arctic High will continue to dominate for the rest of Feb.
CFS showing Z500 height anomalies consistent with the above. #Blocked
 
Just to add... cold weather is associated with blocking probably more than blocking is associated with cold weather.

Roger
Ashurst Bridge (New Forest)
9m ASL
https://www.newforestweather.co.uk 
Fargo
09 February 2021 11:23:24
We're right on the knife edge, GFS06z is keen on introducing milder Westerlies (not before a very large fall of snow somewhere in Western/Central areas) but cold will likely reassert itself, or perhaps even not leave Eastern areas.
North Herefordshire 180m asl
nsrobins
09 February 2021 11:24:50




Simon Lee on Twitter just now:
 
ECMWF Euro-Atlantic regimes confident in Scandi blocking dominating the rest of Feb after current NAO-.
GEFS North American regimes now suggesting Arctic High will continue to dominate for the rest of Feb.
CFS showing Z500 height anomalies consistent with the above. #Blocked
 
Just to add... cold weather is associated with blocking probably more than blocking is associated with cold weather.


Originally Posted by: forestedge 


Umm. GFS OP again on a mission to bring Spring but the control and several GEFS remain undecided. All the time there’s a doubt in the suite we have to be open to the possibility the block will prevail - despite what I was ranting on about earlier 😎

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
ballamar
09 February 2021 12:03:04
GFS control run looks uncertain quite early on with I can imagine conflicting signals in the output. Towards the end looks like a decent Scandi High but think all depends on what happens well before that timescale
Brian Gaze
09 February 2021 12:09:33

Problem all winter in much of the UK is it has been like being 30 not out on a flat track and well set. The next ball your middle stump is dislodged.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
doctormog
09 February 2021 12:10:25


Problem all winter in much of the UK is it has been like being 30 not out on a flat track and well set. The next ball your middle stump is dislodged.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I'm sure that should mean something. Anyone got a crictionary?

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Jim-55
09 February 2021 12:14:01


 


I'm sure that should mean something. Anyone got a crictionary?


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


I know what he means, but the "flat track" might be bowling you off "pitch" a bit. 

Previously JimC. joined back then in 2009. Frome, N/E Somerset, 125mtrs asl.
Rob K
09 February 2021 12:15:26


 


I'm sure that should mean something. Anyone got a crictionary?


Originally Posted by: doctormog 



 


Actually the 06Z short ensemble shows rather more members staying cold than the 00Z, but still looks fairly solid for a warm up.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
CField
09 February 2021 12:25:25


Problem all winter in much of the UK is it has been like being 30 not out on a flat track and well set. The next ball your middle stump is dislodged.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Post of the winter...PS delivered by Joel Garner lol

Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Brian Gaze
09 February 2021 12:31:51


Post of the winter...PS delivered by Joel Garner lol


Originally Posted by: CField 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Rob K
09 February 2021 12:37:05

Long GEFS. The uncertainty continues, less sure of a return to mild than the 0Z was for London:



 


Balance of probability is still for a warm up from Sunday into Monday but lots of options still on the table from a rise to the teens to a return to the freezer.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Robertski
09 February 2021 12:41:23


Long GEFS. The uncertainty continues, less sure of a return to mild than the 0Z was for London:



 


Balance of probability is still for a warm up from Sunday into Monday but lots of options still on the table from a rise to the teens to a return to the freezer.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


Watch the models flip back, the cold spell as it is, may end early next week for most, but it does look as though the jet is just too fragmented and high pressure will dominate again soon after. It maybe that it never warms up at all in the North East. This is fascinating to watch as it has been, all winter.

Gandalf The White
09 February 2021 13:17:21


 


I'm sure that should mean something. Anyone got a crictionary?


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


LOL


Think of it in skiing terms: you're coming down the slope over beautiful soft snow when a crevasse opens up in front of you....

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


doctormog
09 February 2021 13:18:55


 


LOL


Think of it in skiing terms: you're coming down the slope over beautiful soft snow when a crevasse opens up in front of you....


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Yes, I get that analogy. 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
The Beast from the East
09 February 2021 13:20:33

The best of the GEFS. A slight upgrade on the 00z set. so lets see if we can continue the progress tonight


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Heavy Weather 2013
09 February 2021 13:22:08


The best of the GEFS. A slight upgrade on the 00z set. so lets see if we can continue the progress tonight



Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Whats the point. It will just end up rubbish. 

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Ally Pally Snowman
09 February 2021 13:24:26


 


Whats the point. It will just end up rubbish. 


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


 


Exactly,  we now need -15c 850s for it not to thaw now it would seem. 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
09 February 2021 13:25:43

WRF fairly consistent on its 6Z run with rain pushing across the south on Saturday, preceded by snow for some and becoming freezing rain away from the far south/southwest


https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm-eur/runs/2021020906/nmm-42-108-0.png?09-13


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Quantum
09 February 2021 13:29:15

By midnight on Sunday according to GFS initialized WRF.


Over the eastern coast air is sourced from South Germany (v cold)


Over central and central NW areas air is sourced from Switzerland and S france (cold)


For the far SW and N Ireland air is sourced from the med near Italy (mild)


For most of Ireland the air is sourced from the south of the N atlantic (v mild)


Very complicated!


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Heavy Weather 2013
09 February 2021 13:30:54


 


 


Exactly,  we now need -15c 850s for it not to thaw now it would seem. 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Agreed, it’s now clear that -10s are just not enough. Looks like from now on -15s are the best chance of decent cold and snow. Dreadful. Doubt we will ever see that value again in my lifetime

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
09 February 2021 13:31:21


The best of the GEFS. A slight upgrade on the 00z set. so lets see if we can continue the progress tonight



Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Yes P21 has it nailed


http://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2021020906/gens-21-0-216.png

Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Brian Gaze
09 February 2021 13:34:06


By midnight on Sunday according to GFS initialized WRF.


Over the eastern coast air is sourced from South Germany (v cold)


Over central and central NW areas air is sourced from Switzerland and S france (cold)


For the far SW and N Ireland air is sourced from the med near Italy (mild)


For most of Ireland the air is sourced from the south of the N atlantic (v mild)


Very complicated!


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I think a lot of people don't know that. Do you know if anyone is initialising it with other source data and making the output publicly available?

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

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