Bloody hell ...........here we go again 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Bloody hell ...........here we go again 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

My experience of snowy breakdowns is very poor and best avoided. Typically in the South East we have sub-zero temperatures, cloud thickening, winds picking up to make it feel very raw. This is followed by 30 minutes of light sleet/wet snow/freezing rain, which is in turn followed by a critical rise in temperature and 6 hours of cold to mild heavy rain ....

Originally Posted by: GezM 

They're extremely hit & miss - and for here at least, most/all in the past couple of decades at least have been as disappointing as you describe, although I've got memories of a few of snowy breakdowns in the 80's and 90's.

I therefore view the GFS forecast with scepticism, more in hope than expectation. As someone whose snowfalls this spell have been pitifully small (with little prospect of that changing in the current set-up), a snowy breakdown and seeing snow pile up for 24-36 hours before the rain moves in (all per GFS) is better than a continuation of cold and predominantly dry. I appreciate those who've fared better for snow won't agree.

The worst letdown was on NYE 2000 (into 2001). Thick snow on the ground already from a few nights previous, heavily frozen. An active front coming in from the west. BBC forecasting several hours of heavy snow starting around 8-9pm as the front hits the cold air (and you always hope they're underestimating the cold block). I could almost see the headlines of thousands of NYE revellers having to spend the night in clubs and bars as snow chaos reigned. Here, it snowed for about 5 mins, another 10 or so mins of sleet, then the heavy rain set about washing away the standing snow. 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Of course, the outcome that would suit both those in the western half of the UK AND keep the SE'ers happy, is the GFS 6z 

This has Saturday's push from the west bringing snow to the western half, then fizzling, followed by the second push on Monday doing similar. The southern half of the front is showing as les snowy and more rainy, so it's a bit cruel on those in the SE and S Wales, but N Wales, W Midlands, NW England, west half of Scotland and NI could have it good. That second front then fizzled on the Tuesday, with the block reasserting itself. The SE/E never warm up.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Assume you mean SW and S Wales!!

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

Of course, the outcome that would suit both those in the western half of the UK AND keep the SE'ers happy, is the GFS 6z 

This has Saturday's push from the west bringing snow to the western half, then fizzling, followed by the second push on Monday doing similar. The southern half of the front is showing as les snowy and more rainy, so it's a bit cruel on those in the SE and S Wales, but N Wales, W Midlands, NW England, west half of Scotland and NI could have it good. That second front then fizzled on the Tuesday, with the block reasserting itself. The SE/E never warm up.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Both GFS op and parallel run seem to want to bring in a spell of snow up here off the North Sea on this run on Friday. The Met Office forecasts says "cold with a few snow showers". Time will tell.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Theres a yellow warning for you Doc for Thurs & Fri

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 

Of course, the outcome that would suit both those in the western half of the UK AND keep the SE'ers happy, is the GFS 6z 

This has Saturday's push from the west bringing snow to the western half, then fizzling, followed by the second push on Monday doing similar. The southern half of the front is showing as les snowy and more rainy, so it's a bit cruel on those in the SE and S Wales, but N Wales, W Midlands, NW England, west half of Scotland and NI could have it good. That second front then fizzled on the Tuesday, with the block reasserting itself. The SE/E never warm up.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

They're extremely hit & miss - and for here at least, most/all in the past couple of decades at least have been as disappointing as you describe, although I've got memories of a few of snowy breakdowns in the 80's and 90's.

I therefore view the GFS forecast with scepticism, more in hope than expectation. As someone whose snowfalls this spell have been pitifully small (with little prospect of that changing in the current set-up), a snowy breakdown and seeing snow pile up for 24-36 hours before the rain moves in (all per GFS) is better than a continuation of cold and predominantly dry. I appreciate those who've fared better for snow won't agree.

The worst letdown was on NYE 2000 (into 2001). Thick snow on the ground already from a few nights previous, heavily frozen. An active front coming in from the west. BBC forecasting several hours of heavy snow starting around 8-9pm as the front hits the cold air (and you always hope they're underestimating the cold block). I could almost see the headlines of thousands of NYE revellers having to spend the night in clubs and bars as snow chaos reigned. Here, it snowed for about 5 mins, another 10 or so mins of sleet, then the heavy rain set about washing away the standing snow. 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow