That’s pretty much the way I see it, although double digits might be a stretch for most places.

We have that unfortunate breakdown pattern where the first push from LP dies as it hits the cold air and the block but changes the airmass sufficiently that the second push delivers rain for low ground in the southern half.

But the cold never looks to be pushed very far to our east and there have been repeated hints at a rebuild of high pressure somewhere to our east or north east.

I think that (and Docs quoted text) are a pretty fair assessment given where all the ops and ens suites are sat at. I guess GFS 00z Op is only a small tweak away from cold and if you squint at the ECM ens for my backyard there's suggestions of colder possibilities after the initial mild breakthrough but in general it seems the cold will be largely pushed back from the country for a while at least. 

Down here I suspect any breakdown will be of the profoundly boring variety - fronts dying and maybe a bit of sleety stuff before that turns to drizzle and then just mild. 

Those XC weather charts are a waste of time Darren 

Depends where you are 

To be taken with a pinch of salt , further North you are the better . I have found this winter that most computer models forecasting snow are pretty poor IMO - GFS for a few runs is looking at some sort of snowy finish ( to this cold spell )  it's just where and when that has to be decided 

Looks like milder weather from the south from about the 15th is favoured now. Ecm has WAA going right through the UK.  But this should re enforce the block in about 10 days. And could lead to another significant easterly late February. 

ECM day 10.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

GFS day 13

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=0&time=312&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

The WAA would help reinforce a block but where the block is reinforced to is not known. It may end up with a Central European block which would lead to a milder airflow for us or it could reinforce a block back over Scandi which would give the option you say 

Only in the sense that GFS is a waste of time - XC weather gives a useful summary of what the GFS is showing in your backyard without having to squint at dozens of charts.

Spot on. With the block remaining to the east you can't rule out a return of cold down the line.

In the meantime a long fetch southerly would be a reminder that we are heading towards Spring.

The weather remains very interesting which is always good in my book 

My experience of snowy breakdowns is very poor and best avoided. Typically in the South East we have sub-zero temperatures, cloud thickening, winds picking up to make it feel very raw. This is followed by 30 minutes of light sleet/wet snow/freezing rain, which is in turn followed by a critical rise in temperature and 6 hours of cold to mild heavy rain ....

full image:https://i.ibb.co/FmgTK6h/weekendairmass.png

Where the airmass is coming from over the weekend.

The mild atlantic airmass is making very slow progress. Its the development of the med airmass (yellow) that eventually scuppers us.

Takes bloody ages though.

Best breakdown this century was from the February 2018 spell, decent day of snow from that on the Friday and even more impressive considering it was March by then.

Indeed, snowy breakdowns are throughly miserable affairs.

Yes I have found XCweather was always good for providing a basic easy visual map on the weather or  which you can select  a particular location.  I like the way it shows the wind direction and speed using colours. as it crosses the UK for example as I say visually effective if you just want to glance  But there are some great apps out there these days .. I have started using the weather channel ( weather.com) which provides a lot of useful location data  (just enter your postcode) .and i like the 'real time' map. but iahve also tried netweather, weather underground and accuweather.  

Monday at 3pm:

Atlantic airmass has retreated west. The problem is the development of the yellow med airmass. This should also kill off any warm front by diluting the temperature gradient (sorry folks, no big breakdown event). Most of the UK is still in the cold airmass though.

GFSP produces quite a snow event in the west on Saturday before the front fizzles:

(snow charts come with usual health warnings)

Yep and even the op run maintains the block with a cool southeasterly flow, although the deep cold is way down in the Balkans.

Airmass next Tuesday:

Full image: https://i.ibb.co/DrvMgWD/nxttuesdayairmass.jpg

A restrengthening of the front with the red atlantic airmass finally making progress.

Development of a 4th 'W european' airmass from air travelling over the less cold part of France. German airmass still across E UK.

Keep in mind this is +153h now, well into FI and the dark blue line is still over the UK.

Control similar so far. Couldnt be more different to GEM and other output