Yes not just very mild but dry . In these Covid times the UK needs this as much as us weather nerds love our snow.

Significant warm up beginning to surface on the GEFS. With the blocking patterns around it still looks like an early taste of spring or last bit of winter are both more likely than a standard Atlantic flow. 

A warm up to something close to average here after the 15th but nothing that can be classed as mild. This is probably due to the fact that for here, at least, its likely we'll still be tugging in relatively continental air at times.

All the time that breeze is due south or slightly east of south we need to accept the risk that we could just as easily be thrown back into the freezer as that of an Atlantic return.

There are still a number of GEFS suggesting the cold could soon return.

Caution is the buzz word this morning for those expecting a swift warm up next week.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49909&model=gfs&var=5&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1

Agreed. Heat-hounds beware The Return of The Cold

Jetstream to Thu 18th running across the Atlantic quite strongly but running out of steam as it reaches the UK then a big loop developing around the UK with the flow (for the first time in a while) around the N of the UK.

GFS - as previous forecast, LP on Atlantic up against HP over Scandia with quite a strong mostly S-ly flow between (SE -ly tendency at first, SW-ly later i.e. around Wed 17th) then HP moves out of Europe and slowly moves W-wards over UK through to Fri 26th with a teaser N-ly on the following day. 

GEFS - see Brian's chart above. Similar in the N. The few cold outliers presumably because the S-ly flow could flip to SE rather than SW

ECM - The Hp stays over the near continent/Baltic and the S-ly flow is still in place Sun 21st

I anticipate a very mild ssw flow and then another blossom killer blast just as spring arrives! Cos that’s generally what happens!

It would certainly be much more settled than recently for many areas, which would be especially good news for areas that have been affected by flooding recently.

In terms of temperatures, a lot will depend upon where exactly the HP sits, should it develop as shown. From what I can see of the GFS 00z, it looks as though it may well be quite mild for a time mid-way through the run but then temperatures then dropping a bit as the high takes up residence over the UK with signs at the end of a possible retrogression northwards.

Looks like game over  , couldn't get snow in this cold set up , I think IMO that's it for the Winter IMBY 

Probably, but still enough uncertainty in the upstream pattern, GEM control run is still ok. Blocking to east is never going to be far away

Disappointing no doubt considering what the models were showing a few days ago

Can't see it , we have had some cold 850's , I doubt very much we will get a second bite , might get a fleeting blink and you miss it type scenario but any longevity I feel has gone.

Met Office using the word " MILD" more frequently now .

It's just scrabbling around for scraps, though, like rats in a bin.

At least both GFS and GEM have pulled back from a wet breakdown, both now showing at least some snow for the west as the front moves in. GFS less snowy, but a generally dry breakdown.

GEM, though, is a cracker for breakdown snow. I wouldn't say no to this happening:

Reminds of NYE 2000....

Biggest let-down in years.

ECMP again looks quite consistent with ECM, although it has more of a continental flow at 240.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwfp.aspx

I wonder if the Met will keep their warnings in place?

Since the warnings have come out, ony the ICON ad GDPS have given any hint of a wintry breadown... all other move on as if the cold isnt there..

.... and that for me is the issue... is the cold air just going to cave in and be displaced so easily? its something models always struggle with, and one that usually goes down to the wire...

So for me, the extra data the MET have will be very telling by their warnings adjustment today

Don't tell the people in Kent and Suffolk ! For me it has been the Beast with the Least. Last night did show what I could have won when the flow finally turned ESE for 2 hours and a few showers added a cm of snow. Highlight was a DP of -16C yesterday. Lowest temp was last night 3.9C (although tonight could beat it if we get a clear sky) . 850 hPa's start to go up for a couple of days now but not much and any precipitation might still be snow here but from Sunday it warms up for sure and if it is dry for a week or so I will be happy.

Update - unfortunatley its the downgrade we didnt want.. MET have already removed the weather warnings..

but then - theyve been about as accurate as Donald Trump recently

GEM looks quite springlike this morning.

Could we see a repeat of Feb 2019 with snow followed by 20C?

Not this chart as such, as the flow is still on the chillier side of south, but small adjustments with >10C 850mb temperatures could see some very nice temperatures before the month is out.

That would be wonderful

GFS 06z OP showing something similar at +228 - 16/17oC quite widely and 15oC for a few days after that. 

The 'biggest letdown in years' was referring to the NYE 2000/01 breakdown. But yes, this spell has been a flop here, too.

Oi! It's alright for you, with your mountains of snow. I've not had my fix yet - and, until I do, winter's not allowed to be over.