And if it'd been right here, it'd have been something like 6 ice days in a row! In reality it's just been one ice day, although even that was by the barest minimum (-0.1C).

It's still at it too. The 12z has -3C as a high tomorrow and -2C as a high on Saturday (just before it ticks over to Sunday). I would expect 0 or 1 tomorrow and maybe 2 or 3 late on Saturday instead... but we'll see, we'll see!

I set up a GFS grib feed for a private weather company a good while ago. They asked me if I could just bump up raw data temperatures by either 1C or 2C because it "would be more accurate". I told them to get their IT guy to update it after download and processing because I didn't want it coming back to me if they subsequently had issues with data that had been adjusted in such a crude way. 

It bene 30 years now for not seeing very deep cold temperatures and still counting after this failed rubbish cold spell for nothing.  Glad to see warm charts for 20th Feb and hope to make a habit of occurring warmer spells in Spring to lead a hotter drier summer we need after a very wet cold winter.

GEM giving some realistic hope....hope to see more if this from the others

..Dont think the wait will be too long!

Yes, not too long to spring. 

A few more degrees on the 240hr chart would be good. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GEMOPUK12_240_38.png 

I think those posters looking wishfully for spring-like conditions my find their wishes thwarted a few days out.  There is lurking  menace in this Met Office 144 chart

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=144&carte=1021

Most other options are menace free though. I’m not convinced by any quick reload to anything notably wintry but I wouldn’t rule it out completely, especially if the ECM is supportive of the UKMO scenario at that time point.

It still isn't over yet.

The difference between keeping the cold and losing it is minute. And it comes down to how deep that shortwave is.

If its deep it lowers heights over Iberia and causes WAA further west and props up the high. If its shallow it causes a height rise further east and collapses it.

This is not about the intensity of the LP, the weaker surface lows actually seem to do a better job of lowering heights.

And what is the thing that low res models can't handle very well?

Shortwaves, much less ones that could possibly under go barotropic development over the med.

Compare. This is the GFSPara 6Z run from yesterday which had that epic cold shot.

This is today's GFS para12Z

Look at that shortwave. On yesterdays 6Z it was much deeper (higher up, not more intense at the surface) than today.

Do we really trust the low res models to handle its intensification well?

Yup, all models now moved away from the snowy breakdown scenario. The orientation of the block and approaching fronts by Saturday see to that.

Can't catch a break here the last few winters. 

The key moment is from 18-24h on the GFS

After that the trough is too far away to have any impact.

still a number of cold options on the GEFS. A blast of spring followed by another cold snap is possible

Its still possible to avoid mild entirely.

I think it becomes impossible at 18h when that trough development is sorted.

So if its mild on the 6Z tommorow then that's it.

Could go anywhere from here

I love your optimism, but that really would be the most remarkable flip in model history

More realistic is the block coming back after a mild period. Happened a lot in the 80s. I remember Ian MacAskill used to say a warm southerly could easily become a cold easterly

Hello

always looks better in NH view

Looks fairly dry in the all-important SE corner 😅