The ECM is a lesson against mild ramping.

The WRF has a completely different trough development to the GFS at the surface.

However because the domain edges have the GFS solution 'baked in' we don't know what effect this has on the height rises.

ECM has colder air getting back into the east.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwf.aspx

ECMP runs a little later and is out to 120 at the time of posting.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwfp.aspx?run=12&charthour=120&chartname=mslp500&chartregion=na&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM

Indeed. I have been guilty this week.

Feeling somewhat chastised. 

Cats and pigeons?

I think whatever the 6Z says tommorow will be what happens.

That trough development is absolutely crucial, and the changes needed are so tiny that any kind of unexpected development would throw the whole thing off.

So I expect a major flip on the 6z one way or another.

I would say the breakdown to milder conditions is pretty clear towards the second part of the weekend with cross model agreement of much milder conditions for at least a week. Average to a little above temperatures in most places for several days then possibly a bit cooler. There is of course room for a change but if that change doesn’t come then a transition to spring is more likely than a continuation of winter.

AROME has a much deeper trough than the low res 12Z models.

And on its back side a much larger height rise.

All the ensembles that have the cold solution together with the GFSpara6Z from yesterday have deep troughs that force a stronger more westerly height rise.

It could be as simple as this.

Low res models underestimate strength of trough. Trough is actually deeper and pushes low heights further south. Heights behind rise more sharply. This causes a pressure rise further west over the UK and keeps the tilt more negitive.

Well the Met are going for another easterly with snow late February.  So would expect to see it in the output soon.

You may be onto something, but you probably are not.

We will see..

There’s not enough evidence for me to think anything other than a milder period from the weekend

Think some may be over analysing trying to find the outcome that maybe isn’t there?

Stranger things have happened but I don’t see the Atlantic not pushing enough to change the pattern 

A quick zip through the ECM 12z clusters and the most likely outcome is for high pressure to begin to reassert its influence to the east from Tuesday/Wednesday. Before that there's some support for the air flow to continue to have a continental flavour for the most eastern side but a strong preference for a more south-westerly flow.

But what is absent is any transition to a mobile flow.

ECM very much a cold outlier this evening.  A mild spell looks likely  now at least for a time.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/ecmwfens_display.php?x=312&y=142&run=12&type=0&runpara=0

I agree the output is not mobile and this is well supported. HP cells dominant N.Europe / C. Europe. ECM offers more retrogression northwards with strong WAA, that may lead to better positioning of a HP but I’d like to see other models do this. 

Now they were all showing at one point apart from the GEM, strong blocking to the North. That disappeared in the last 72 hours apart from the ecm which is showing it on some updates.

N. Europe will have a cold month and the western extent is looking milder

Thursday ecm extended 11th Feb ran a few moments  ago

15th -22nd Feb

Looks a draw

High pressure Sweden low pressure MA

Cold s/e feed Eastern districts milder southerly feed west uk

No to big west push

22nd - 1st March

Intense area High pressure between Scotland /Norway Shallow low Mid A

cold wins cold easterly winds for all

1st -  8th

High pressure moving slowly west and in total charge centred around approx 60N 15.5 West

lovely sunny days where fog clears but cold at night

No clear signal on remaining dated Run

This looked better for cold than the current op run.

That maintains a very strong Scandi block, would probably lead to cold. See what it shows tomorrow 

I tweaked the GFS download and scripts earlier today to get the charts out a little quicker. Tempting fate, but at times on the 12z run the TWO download was running marginally ahead of all the others I compared it against. One thing to be aware of is that the check to determine whether to shade a button green is currently only made every couple of minutes, so sometimes new charts 2 or 3 time steps ahead will be shown even if the button is grey.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx

I've only looked up until 24h on the 18Z.

So far it looks like an upgrade on the 12z.

Looks like an upgrade in terms of warmth.