Doesn’t look exceptionally wet to me, yes rainy, but the SW isn’t like the East, it rains more and many of its rivers can take about 3 times the rainfall of some areas without flooding.

But I also can’t see those 15-20c Spring like conditions that some people were predicting 3 days ago, to be honest the weather looks more like you would expect first half November, than late February in my opinion 

In like a Lion 

Please God no !!! 

BUT

The ENS do show a cooling trend into March 

That'd be a much better alignment than a 'chilly fart from the east'

Bonkers!!!

Here we go again. A cold shot in March can't be ruled out IMO.

I'm sure this kind of setup will have some support amongst the ens.

Some our best cold spells over recent years have occurred in March.

Not sure I'd class the 6z Op as particularly exciting/interesting, although that's an IMBY biased view based on uppers and windflow, which would probably bring more cold but not quite cold enough weather for here, although I appreciate others will view it considerably more favourably.

Leaving it aside though, being 1 op run in deep FI, I think the models are reasonably consistent at the moment although there's been some tweaks to the setup. 

Near term it's unsettled and mild with HP to our South or South East. Broadly SW flow with potential for some exceptionally mild days/nights over the next 7-8 days. The duration of this unsettled period has been lengthened from when it first cropped up.

Mid term there's signs of HP build from the South and deflecting LPs further North, giving a more pronounced NW/SE split.

Longer term there's a signal for more HP influence and for this to far enough North to possibly bring some cooler air in. There remains a low chance of HP being far enough North to bring some cold air in but IMO the favoured option is for HP near or over the UK. Clearly if it's just to the South milder weather is more likely, over the UK more average weather is likely depending on whether we trap some warmer uppers in.

The period where HP builds over the UK (or North but influencing us) has been pushed back to late Feb/early March and until that stabilises I'll take any charts with more of a pinch of salt than usual for that range.

So still some promise of colder weather if anyone fancies another chase but a very low chance at the moment and a signal that needs to strengthen before it's more than the usual random FI noise.

Seems Autumn won't be done with us just yet going by on some of the outputs beyond this weekend.

And not the 'mists and mellow fruitfulness' variety, either 

Hear ye, hear ye! 

It has gone 6 hours later.

To be replaced by basically 384 hours of mild, damp south westerlies. Obviously (hopefully?!) it won't play out like that but wow, the 12Z is shocker of a run, whether you're hankering after more cold or a taste of spring. Neither to be found here. Next please.  

Amazing how quickly the snow row counts have fallen: 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/snowrow.aspx?type=daily&location=London#London

Yes that what I was thinking we have seen the effects of the 2nd, what about the 3rd?

Met Office talk of colder spells increasing and added 'wintry hazards' back in their long range earlier today - or was this because they saw the 06z Op run?

Either way the 12z LOOKs dire - even for those wanting spring sunshine away from the far SE - it's basically mild and wet throughout. Very little signs of anything settled which was what the Met Has been going for for a while now. Let's hope we see a change soon.

I am fed up with the rain already. Good Aberdeen has had some sunny weather today but this won't last so enjoy it Richard & Doc. 

Why would sunny weather not last in Aberdeen in a predominantly SWly flow? It is almost certain we would have more sunshine than in any form of easterly. Not wall to wall of course but not too dull and certainly not too wet, just sunshine and showers or spells of rain but brighter weather too, not “permacast hell”. The GFS shows about 20mm rain here in the next two weeks which is not notably wet (or notably dry either).

Well ECM certainly looks better than GFS on 12z. The high coming up later in the run would give things the chance to dry out a bit more. 

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 Mass of very cold Siberian air withdrawing and beginning to break up, so not favourable for any late cold blast from the E. 

GFS shows Atlantic dominance throughout; any prospect of sustained HP over NW Europe let alone UK has gone. Strong SW-lies at first with principal centre of LP off NI/W Scotland to Tue 23rd then more W-ly and quieter while a deep and cold  LP winds up off Greenland (960mb Wed 3rd)

GEFS temps up and down but mostly on the mild side to Thu 25th (peak mildness Sun 21st), then mostly closer to seasonal  norm with if anything a signal for mildness to continue through to Fri 5th. Never really dry (unlike previous), rain most likely around Tue 23rd but plenty in the W at any time.

ECM which never really believed in a strong HP is vindicated, but has relented a bit and shows more of a ridge of HP passing through Sat 27th where GFS is in the middle of its W-ly zonal spell