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Brian Gaze
18 February 2021 10:51:29




Trouble is, in my books a cold snap in March is about as welcome as a fart in a crowded lift while hearing someone coughing. 

All my thoughts and energy are now being reserved for looking out for the first bit of proper warm and dry weather, good enough to do gardening while in shorts and T shirt and some of the outputs actually fills me with some hope with that to mind.


Originally Posted by: idj20 


If we get can another cold snap similar to last week's debacle the Kent and EA contingent will be very welcome to bottle up and keep as far as I'm concerned.  

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Snow Hoper
18 February 2021 11:05:46


GFS6z is another sinker. 



 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Not so much on the version set to replace this one!


Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
Schnow in Peace
18 February 2021 12:48:02

What certainly seems to be moving forward on the ECM at least is a nice high pressure dry out. From around 192 now from 240 a few days ago with the high over us. 


From there could move N or E - but that will depend on events upstream too. 

Saint Snow
18 February 2021 12:53:45

don't think it's going to be cold enough or soon enough to save my CET guess this month 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Quantum
18 February 2021 16:22:09


Siberian high position quite good on the 12Z. You can see where the really cold air is with the dark purple colours.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
18 February 2021 16:34:43


We can see the cold air trickling into scandanavia. The favourable orientation of the siberian high gives a rather direct path to cold for Scandi.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
18 February 2021 16:48:14

So when the cold air finally starts to arrive:



It is sourced from siberia. This would be colder than the period we have just seen if it comes off.


 


The siberian high has high confidence, if it forms in the right place it seems inevitable the cold air will eventually get to the UK.


We will avoid cold if it sets up to far SE or too far NW


Also if that lobe of polar vortex over northern canada comes too far south


The GFS shows the ideal scenario.


 


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
18 February 2021 16:49:54

Siberian airsource 'pinched off' by about 300h. But has brought uppers of -32C into Eastern Europe by that time.


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
ballamar
18 February 2021 17:21:33
Nooo please not the GFS scenario with temps of 17 this weekend my spring head will be screwed on. Looks a distinct possibility of a final cold blast though
Russwirral
18 February 2021 18:14:14
Thats a hell of a final blast from winter in the GFS... BFTE standards..


with stronger sun, we could see some interesting showers from this if it came off

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
CField
18 February 2021 18:27:58

Looks very March 2005 to me...difference this time is it will be colder after last weeks affair...2005 was very sleety at lower levels and on the coast.....

Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
backtobasics
18 February 2021 18:28:03
Enthusiasm for another cold spell seems low but possibility is seemingly there. I hope it doesn't happen, on which basis it probably will 😁
doctormog
18 February 2021 18:38:17


Looks very March 2005 to me...difference this time is it will be colder after last weeks affair...2005 was very sleety at lower levels and on the coast.....


Originally Posted by: CField 



A March 2006 repeat would be amazing but highly unlikely. Any cold is still on isolated runs deep in FI.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Ally Pally Snowman
18 February 2021 18:47:16

Very much on it's own. But a cold start to March still looks plausible. 


 



 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
nsrobins
18 February 2021 18:53:09
Signs ECM starting to get in the mood with higher blocking towards D9.
Is the chase on again one last time?
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Ally Pally Snowman
18 February 2021 18:59:32

ECM looks to be setting up an easterly to start March as well. Some insane cold to our east if we can tap into it . We could be looking at something special again. 


 


 https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Saint Snow
18 February 2021 19:12:12

Signs ECM starting to get in the mood with higher blocking towards D9.
Is the chase on again one last time?

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
KAshton
18 February 2021 19:31:42

[quote=Ally Pally Snowman;1320568]


Very much on it's own. But a cold start to March still looks plausible. 


 



 


On it's own in terms of severity but it does have support from several other runs that get down to or around -10. 


ECM looking interesting at the end as well, signs that the high is moving NE, whether it can get above the low pressure and aligned in the right position for us over Scandi remains to be seen. 


Still an eternity away but a nice trend to see 

Wolverhampton
West Mids
150m ASL
Robertski
18 February 2021 20:20:49


ECM looks to be setting up an easterly to start March as well. Some insane cold to our east if we can tap into it . We could be looking at something special again. 


 


 https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


 


Bring it on! 

sunny coast
18 February 2021 21:51:53
John Hammond on SE today weather hinted at a possible cold start to March but no imminent change next week
Quantum
18 February 2021 22:31:23

Siberian high in a similar position to the 12Z.


Looks slightly less ideal though with its eastward extent somewhat smaller than with the 12Z.


More worryingly that lump of cold over canada is pushing further south and east



 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Chiltern Blizzard
18 February 2021 22:42:07
One hell of a cold pool coming our way in the 18z... but will it reach the U.K.?
Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
Snow Hoper
18 February 2021 22:56:31

One hell of a cold pool coming our way in the 18z... but will it reach the U.K.?

Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 


 


On both GFS and the Parallel🤔

Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
ballamar
18 February 2021 23:07:20
Oh piss off GFS - this is not the time to be playing at this. Massive cold spell incoming ☹️❄️
Northern Sky
18 February 2021 23:11:46

A bit of a theme developing with a possible cold start to March. It's entirely possible I suppose but I'm ready for Spring now. 

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