I agree but that is pure speculation.

Hoping for a decent waterfest later this week as the water butts need refilling 

Any sign of rain?  Been very very dry here and fed up having to water the garden.  I thought the European monsoon season should be on us by now?

The days of wet summers are long goine 

Sterling work as ever, Kieran.

I applaud your tireless devotion to the cause.

Yes, some lovely warm downpours would go down a treat this week.

My lawn is already going brown. Watered it today with the hose but you can’t beat summer rain. 

Wow!

wx summary maps not offering much in the way of heat for the UK - looks  like W-ly influence so pleasantly wrm in SE, rather cool in the NW. Atleast the blob of rain over the UK in week 1 moves off to the NE leaving drier conditions to follow.

GFS - Atlantic and continental centres of LP join forces by Thu 17th to give trough over UK and this hangs around  between large HP areas to W and E,  with variations in exact position of minor LPs until Sat  26th when something more moves down from Iceland and becomes established E Scotland 1005mb. Then back to square one by Thu 1st

GEFS - For the S temps down to seasonal norm by Sat 19th and then fairly well clustered around the seasonal norm for the rest of the forecast to Thu 1st (but op & control on the pessimistic side) Plenty of rain from Thu 17th for a week, declining somewhat after that. Scotland even dips below norm for a few days but the rain is less and doesn't start until about Sun 20th

ECM - similar pressure distribution to GfS though average pressure is a bit higher and W-lies put ina brief appearance around WEd 23rd

Seem look fine to me and more average June weather next week with HP days and average temps of low 20's for this time of the year.  Seen the LP from Norway to UK and back again there are in FI thankfully. Most of the time the models and forecasts had been very wrong in the early stages this week so can't trust them for next week be either HP or LP.  Yesterday we did well with sunshine than on Sunday massive failure so now I take it day by day by looking outside and plan ahead for more accurately.

Looks OK to me as well

After the rain potential this week it seems a theme, certainly on ECM, to throw a ridge up in mid-Atlantic which collapses quickly but allows warmth to push into the SE on occasion so that may lead to occasional thundery outbreaks

When will you stop with your 2 week predictions!! You have been wrong on numerous occasions. The early part of next week is miles away let alone 2 weeks

A lot of variation between the models for this weekend onwards. All about the positioning (and persistence) of the low over western Europe. GFS has it slap bang over the UK, UKMO shows it over Iberia. ECM and GEM also keep it to the south, as well as filling it somewhat.

As Saint said earlier today, there is currently a lot of variation among the models, and well before we reach what many consider to be deepest FI.

From what I can see, all developments from this coming weekend onwards are very much up in the air according to current output. Until the models settle for a particular outcome and then stick with it consistently on a run-to-run basis, there is no way that any of us can realistically call a protracted settled or unsettled spell in the near future.

It's not about an agenda. It's about interpreting the models and making an informed opinion. Not look for the coldest, wettest scenario. For example, UKMO looks fine. The GFS operational not so.

It’s going to rain  at last

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=84&carte=2000

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/accumulation-precipitations/96h.htm

To be fair, there is a lot of rain showing on the London ensembles in the short/mid term. Heat pulsing up from the south against a cooler Atlantic looks ripe for thundery rainfall 

A bit pessimistic at least for the SE where there is some warmth and I grant you quite cool in the NW - but it dries up over the next two weeks (the wx summary map)

Jetstream - the loop over the UK dissipates by Wed 23rd, re-establishes briefly wed 30th but otherwise mostly random streaks

GFS - UK remains in a trough between two lumps of HP, well developed over s England Sun 20th but hanging around anyway until Fri 25th when an Atlantic LP appears, giving a W-ly stream at first but as it moves S to be off SW Ireland brings in warm S-lies before drifting off to N Scotland and allowing the Azores High to move back Fri 2nd.

GEFS - for the S temps back to norm by Sat 19th and the mean of runs staying there, even cool around Wed 23rd, but with a lot of variation later on (op reaches 10C above norm at one point and control 8C below!). Big rainfall totals until Tue 22nd rather drier thereafter. For Scotland, the cool spell starts immediately, but rainfall totals much less and mostly 21st - 23rd (Mon - Wed)

ECM - relents after Tue 22nd and places HP over France with mild SW-lies for all but extreme N

But reverse psychology only works if nobody realises you're doing it!

I agree ballamar. Even if it is part of an 'agenda' of reverse psychology at best it is tiresome and at worse it is plain misleading.

One glance at the ensembles this morning and you can see it's not looking particularly cool or unsettled beyond this week/weekend's breakdown.

I thought the model output discussion was for scientific discussion about model output rather than rubbing crystals and trying to not 'jinx' good weather 

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

Take your Rose tinted glasses off and look at the charts and tell me that what I'm saying is wrong.

If you think its wrong, then you are either mistaken, stubborn or just plain daft.