WX temps - still warming up nicely on the fringes and S of the Med but the simple picture of northern latitudes + cold upset by a retreat in the Atlantic and a corresponding bulge S-wards in Russia. Compared to norm, W Europe is warmer and E Europe colder. Dry area week 1 from UK to Greece changes to wet as rain moves in from the Atlantic, affecting Spain, UK & Balkans.
Jet : the S branch over the Med disappearing off to the SE and re-establishing around Iceland and Norway for a few days though not strongly. From Fri 1st pulses develop across England, then activity moves S and quite strong across the Pyrenees Wed 6th.
GFS: Full-on HP persists in the area around the UK until about Wed 30th - S-lies at first, then as HP moves to the W, cooler with N-lies next week. Then the UK sits on a shallow ridge between LP on Atlantic and one (rather deep) in the Baltic. By Mon 4th the Atlantic LP is dominant and slowly moves to Rockall Thu 7th, filling.
GEFS : good agreement in ens members for just above norm to Tue 29th (BBC suggests warmer) Op & control suddenly very cold around Thu 31st and just as swift a recovery to well above norm Sun 3rd though many runs disagree some staying above norm and some below for the respective periods. Rain setting in from Thu 31st, some big totals in N & W.
ECM : similar to GFS tough less of a ridge and more of a col between the HP's later on
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Chichester 12m asl