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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
22 March 2022 07:29:46

WX temps - still warming up nicely on the fringes and S of the Med but the simple picture of northern latitudes + cold upset by a retreat in the Atlantic and a corresponding bulge S-wards in Russia. Compared to norm, W Europe is warmer and E Europe colder. Dry area week 1 from UK to Greece changes to wet as rain moves in from the Atlantic, affecting Spain, UK & Balkans.


Jet : the S branch over the Med disappearing off to the SE and re-establishing around Iceland and Norway for a few days though not strongly. From Fri 1st pulses develop across England, then activity moves S and quite strong across the Pyrenees Wed 6th.


GFS: Full-on HP persists in the area around the UK until about Wed 30th - S-lies at first, then as HP moves to the W, cooler with N-lies next week. Then the UK sits on a shallow ridge between LP on Atlantic and one (rather deep) in the Baltic. By Mon 4th the Atlantic LP is dominant and slowly moves to Rockall Thu 7th, filling.


GEFS : good agreement in ens members for just above norm to Tue 29th (BBC suggests warmer) Op & control suddenly very cold around Thu 31st and just as swift a recovery to well above norm Sun 3rd though many runs disagree some staying above norm and some below for the respective periods. Rain setting in from Thu 31st, some big totals in N & W.


ECM : similar to GFS tough less of a ridge and more of a col between the HP's later on


 


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Joe Bloggs
22 March 2022 10:19:22

Oh heckers peckers! 


 


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_162_1.png 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

TomC
  • TomC
  • Advanced Member
22 March 2022 10:26:46


Oh heckers peckers! 


 


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_162_1.png 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


A good cold air outbreak for our flights from Kiruna

Tim A
22 March 2022 10:55:22
6Z has a snowstorm too.
Seems it would be one of the more extreme options looking at the 00Z ensembles though.
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
briggsy6
22 March 2022 11:34:07

Any sign of those April showers yet?


Location: Uxbridge
ARTzeman
22 March 2022 11:43:51

The first weekend of April showers are due in Northeast somerset.


 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Rob K
22 March 2022 12:07:29


 


Wasn’t there a red weather warning for extreme heat last summer, or was that the one before?


Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Did it ever reach red? I remember the headlines for the first ever amber heat warning. Previously they only had levels 1 to 4 I believe. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/jul/19/met-office-issues-first-ever-extreme-heat-warning-uk


 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Brian Gaze
22 March 2022 12:25:23


 


Wasn’t there a red weather warning for extreme heat last summer, or was that the one before?


Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Last summer I think. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Chunky Pea
22 March 2022 13:13:00


Oh heckers peckers! 


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_162_1.png 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


That's actually a nice chart.  Hopefully we'll see something like that over the course of the coming warm season! Gentle warm days, perhaps with an afternoon power shower, and nice cool nights. 


 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Quantum
22 March 2022 13:52:57

These charts mean I will be talking about 'in situ snow showers' alot. Unlike winter, solar heating can create enough uplift for them without the aid of the lake effect, which is nice for inland areas.


 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
TomC
  • TomC
  • Advanced Member
22 March 2022 14:50:00


These charts mean I will be talking about 'in situ snow showers' alot. Unlike winter, solar heating can create enough uplift for them without the aid of the lake effect, which is nice for inland areas.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


But the snow doesn't settle by day and the showers die out by night

Tim A
22 March 2022 15:05:50


 


But the snow doesn't settle by day and the showers die out by night


Originally Posted by: TomC 


 


If you get a nice shower 4-5pm before they die out they can last till the next morning, that happened last April in a few places. 


A battleground scenario would be much better though. 


Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
nsrobins
22 March 2022 15:06:59


 


But the snow doesn't settle by day and the showers die out by night


Originally Posted by: TomC 


Spoilsport 😉😂


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Saint Snow
22 March 2022 15:54:39


 


 


If you get a nice shower 4-5pm before they die out they can last till the next morning


Originally Posted by: Tim A 


 


Oh whoop-de-feckin-doo!



 


(seriously, I find snow that falls then melts within a day to be an annoying tease)



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
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Gusty
22 March 2022 15:57:32


 If you get a nice shower 4-5pm before they die out they can last till the next morning, that happened last April in a few places. 


A battleground scenario would be much better though. 


Originally Posted by: Tim A 


We are proper scraping the barrel now ! 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
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doctormog
22 March 2022 16:44:30
moomin75
22 March 2022 17:04:21
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_174_1.png 

Where were these charts during winter?


Sod's law strikes again, and guaranteed to verify now we don't want it.


Damaging frosts and snow just like last April.


Shocking.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
22 March 2022 17:05:37
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_174_1.png 

Where were these charts during winter?


There were quite a few instances of such charts at T+180 and every time the northerly got pushed across into Scandinavia - where, going by the daily charts, they've had a persistently really cold winter. Watch it happen again!


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Tim A
22 March 2022 17:07:20


 


 


Oh whoop-de-feckin-doo!



 


(seriously, I find snow that falls then melts within a day to be an annoying tease)


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


 


 


 



 


We are proper scraping the barrel now ! 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


 


 


Grateful for anything we get in the UK in the modern era. 


Even if it is cold enough, the pavements are too warm or the snow blows away or it subliminates,  so you best make the most of it as its falling. 


 


Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
doctormog
22 March 2022 17:13:56


 


There were quite a few instances of such charts at T+180 and every time the northerly got pushed across into Scandinavia - where, going by the daily charts, they've had a persistently really cold winter. Watch it happen again!


Originally Posted by: DEW 


I hope so. 


backtobasics
22 March 2022 17:21:35


 


I hope so. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


seconded, cold in spring makes me feel a bit Richard 

Whether Idle
22 March 2022 18:19:37


 


I hope so. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Methinks the weather wants to stop people turning off their heating on April 1st and play an expensive  "joke".  Feels to me like its one those rare  upgrade for cold  scenarios.  Hopefully my gut is wrong on this occasion.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Bolty
22 March 2022 18:26:12


 


Methinks the weather wants to stop people turning off their heating on April 1st and play an expensive  "joke".  Feels to me like its one those rare  upgrade for cold  scenarios.  Hopefully my gut is wrong on this occasion.


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Of course the cold will upgrade. It's spring, so why wouldn't it? If it was midwinter of course, it would be a different story.


I have to say I'm getting some real March/April 2012 vibes at the moment. We'll just have to hope that low pressure from the Atlantic cuts the cold flow off fairly quickly.


Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
tallyho_83
22 March 2022 18:45:19


 


Sod's law strikes again, and guaranteed to verify now we don't want it.


Damaging frosts and snow just like last April.


Shocking.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Exactly and we had 3-4 months of no cold or snowy weather or charts to talk about all winter. Typical really, although not surprising given the warming of the stratosphere splitting the PV and reversing the zonal flow..!


Someone (on here) said in January or February something like "No doubt April will bring us cold and snow just to laugh in our faces...!"


 


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Chunky Pea
22 March 2022 18:56:53


 


Of course the cold will upgrade. It's spring, so why wouldn't it? If it was midwinter of course, it would be a different story.


I have to say I'm getting some real March/April 2012 vibes at the moment. We'll just have to hope that low pressure from the Atlantic cuts the cold flow off fairly quickly.


Originally Posted by: Bolty 


Apparently, patterns over the US this Spring so far are roughly similar to that of 2012 as well (heard that from a US forecaster the other day) 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
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