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Zubzero
18 July 2022 17:53:55

Power networks potentially in trouble?

https://twitter.com/emilygosden/status/1549081394705571840?s=21&t=2-yKpWXtS2mcLpWK9R6uKg

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


The demand is not that high https://grid.iamkate.com/ 


 


Probably the usual twatter scaremongering.

redmoons
18 July 2022 18:08:24

12 UTC radiosonde ascent from Camborne, UK penetrated through the plume of the hottest air mass affecting currently UK. 850 hPa temperature was 24.4°C, a new July record and only 0.4°C shy of the all-time record (00 UTC 28.6.2019)


 


https://twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1549044376319406080


Andrew,
Watford
ASL 35m
http://weather.andrewlalchan.co.uk 





Tim A
18 July 2022 18:12:29
Tomorrow is quite complex, cloud/showers and the arrival of fresher air are all variables to be weary of. Hard to know exactly how it will play out.

Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
xioni2
18 July 2022 18:55:50

In the garden now and it feels amazing, the heat is very bearable and the plants smell stronger than usual.


 

johncs2016
18 July 2022 19:01:32

As it stands just now, Edinburgh appears to have just missed out on its hottest day on record by a fraction of a degree.


Today's maximum temperature at Edinburgh Gogarbank where that record from 2019 was set, was 30.6°C which is exactly 1.0°C short of that all time record.


For my other local stations, the highest hourly temperature readings were 31°C at Edinburgh Airport and 30.5°C at the botanic Gardens in Edinburgh.


That is likely to be a new station record at Edinburgh Airport and possibly even at the botanic Gardens as well once the figure for there is adjusted by the 18z raw SYNOP/BUFR data.


Either way, today could well have been Edinburgh's second hottest day on record with that really horrible prospect of tomorrow possibly being even hotter than today.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
18 July 2022 19:18:32
Still 35C in several spots at 8pm, mainly in the Midlands. 32 and 33 at my nearest PWSs as well as LCY airport. One way I like to define a proper heatwave is when it’s above 28C at 8pm.

Still, in my ultra cool frost hollow of a vineyard site it’s already down to 23.9C and dropping like a stone. If I didn’t have work tomorrow that would be a very nice place to spend the night.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Rob K
18 July 2022 19:21:26


As it stands just now, Edinburgh appears to have just missed out on its hottest day on record by a fraction of a degree.


Today's maximum temperature at Edinburgh Gogarbank where that record from 2019 was set, was 30.6°C which is exactly 1.0°C short of that all time record.


For my other local stations, the highest hourly temperature readings were 31°C at Edinburgh Airport and 30.5°C at the botanic Gardens in Edinburgh.


That is likely to be a new station record at Edinburgh Airport and possibly even at the botanic Gardens as well once the figure for there is adjusted by the 18z raw SYNOP/BUFR data.


Either way, today could well have been Edinburgh's second hottest day on record with that really horrible prospect of tomorrow possibly being even hotter than today.


Originally Posted by: johncs2016 


John, can you give me any pointers on how to decode the raw SYNOPs to extract the maximum temperatures? For example Edinburgh Botanic Gardens gives me this load of codes for the 1800Z SYNOP, which would presumably include the day max. Which bit shows the maximum?


 













2022-07-18 18:00:00001001:99 001002:180 001015:EDINBURGH ROYAL BOTA 002001:0 004001:2022 004002:7 004003:18 004004:18 004005:0 005001:55.96656 006001:-3.21234 007030:28.0 007031:28.0 010004- 010051- 010061- 010063- 010062- 007004- 010009- 007032- 012101:301.50 012103:284.25 013003:34 007032- 020001- 007032- 013023- 007032- 020010- 008002- 020011- 020013- 020012- 020012- 020012- 008002:7 020054- 008002:8 020054- 008002:9 020054- 008002- 005021- 007021- 020012- 005021- 007021- 020062- 013013- 012113- 020003:509 004024:-6 020004- 020005- 004024:-24 014031- 004024:-1 014031- 007032- 004024:-12 013011:0.0 004024:-1 013011:0.0 007032- 004024:-12 004024:0 012111:303.99 004024:-12 004024:0 012112:291.63 007032- 002002:12 008021:2 004025:-10 011001- 011002- 008021- 004025:-10 011043- 011041- 004025:-60 011043- 011041- 007032- 004024:-24 002004- 013033- 004024:-1 014002- 014004- 014016- 014028- 014029- 014030- 004024:-24 014002- 014004- 014016- 014028- 014029- 014030- 004024- 004024- 012049-
  

If it is indeed hidden in there then the weatherobs site should allow the missing maxima to be extracted, where they only show hourly figures.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gavin D
18 July 2022 19:26:50

The Beast from the East
18 July 2022 19:42:59


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
RobR
  • RobR
  • Advanced Member
18 July 2022 19:48:36
I thought the heat today was tolerable. I've driven over an hour down the motorway with no air con but just pretended I was abroad.

Sitting in the 36c heat this afternoon was fine, you can tell it's dry heat for sure! Tonight is warm and lovely, still shirtless at nearly 9!
Winter 23/24 in Nantwich
Days Snow Falling: 4
Days Snow Lying: 1
Deepest Snowfall: 3rd December 23 (2cm)



Winter 22/23 in Nantwich

Days Snow Falling: 4
Days Snow Lying: 2
Deepest Snowfall: 10th March (3cm)
Latest Snowfall: 10th March

Winter 21/22 in Nantwich

Days Snow Falling: 3
Days Snow Lying: 1
Deepest Snowfall: 28th November (3cm)
Latest Snowfall: 31st March

Winter 20/21 in Solihull

Days Snow Falling: 21
Days Snow Lying: 8
Deepest Snowfall: 24th January (9cm)
Latest Snowfall: 12th April

Winter 19/20 in Stoke

Days Snow Falling: 5
Days Snow Lying: 2
Deepest Snowfall: 10th Feb (5cm)

Winter 18/19 in Stoke

Days Snow Falling: 6
Days Snow Lying: 6
Deepest Snowfall: 29th Jan (3cm)

Winter 17/18 in Stoke

Days Snow Falling: 27
Days Snow Lying: 24
Deepest Snowfall: 18th March 2018 (10cm)
Tim A
18 July 2022 20:11:01
Looks like a quite dramatic drop in temps mid-Afternoon across Northern England tomorrow might drop from 38 to 33 or 42 to 34 depending where exactly you are quite quickly around 2-4pm maybe under clear skies.
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Gavin D
18 July 2022 20:16:23

The UK's biggest military base in RAF Brize Norton is going to be closed until 00:59 on Saturday, according to NOTAMS after today's heat melted the runway.

The closure means it has also grounded aircraft which were used to supply aid to Ukraine

johncs2016
18 July 2022 20:16:35


 


John, can you give me any pointers on how to decode the raw SYNOPs to extract the maximum temperatures? For example Edinburgh Botanic Gardens gives me this load of codes for the 1800Z SYNOP, which would presumably include the day max. Which bit shows the maximum?


 













2022-07-18 18:00:00001001:99 001002:180 001015:EDINBURGH ROYAL BOTA 002001:0 004001:2022 004002:7 004003:18 004004:18 004005:0 005001:55.96656 006001:-3.21234 007030:28.0 007031:28.0 010004- 010051- 010061- 010063- 010062- 007004- 010009- 007032- 012101:301.50 012103:284.25 013003:34 007032- 020001- 007032- 013023- 007032- 020010- 008002- 020011- 020013- 020012- 020012- 020012- 008002:7 020054- 008002:8 020054- 008002:9 020054- 008002- 005021- 007021- 020012- 005021- 007021- 020062- 013013- 012113- 020003:509 004024:-6 020004- 020005- 004024:-24 014031- 004024:-1 014031- 007032- 004024:-12 013011:0.0 004024:-1 013011:0.0 007032- 004024:-12 004024:0 012111:303.99 004024:-12 004024:0 012112:291.63 007032- 002002:12 008021:2 004025:-10 011001- 011002- 008021- 004025:-10 011043- 011041- 004025:-60 011043- 011041- 007032- 004024:-24 002004- 013033- 004024:-1 014002- 014004- 014016- 014028- 014029- 014030- 004024:-24 014002- 014004- 014016- 014028- 014029- 014030- 004024- 004024- 012049-
  

If it is indeed hidden in there then the weatherobs site should allow the missing maxima to be extracted, where they only show hourly figures.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


That is raw BUFR code rather than raw SYNOP code and since I am currently down in Hawick, I don't have my usual tools at hand to decode that.


However, I do know that the encoded temperatures and dew points are in °K rather than °C. To convert that to °C, you therefore only need to subtract 273.15 from the value in question.


From close observation, it would appear that the official maximum temperature is contained within the line which contains 012111 303.99. This would suggest that that today's official maximum temperature at that particular station was 303.99°K which converts to 30.84°C.


I can't actually verify that of course but since that figure is slightly above today's highest hourly reading, that is the figure which is most likely to be correct.


If that is the case, this will confirm that the record for Edinburgh's highest ever temperature wasn't quite set there today, although that could well be a new station record.


Furthermore, this is only the first time that I have ever recorded a maximum temperature of over 30°C at all three of my local stations and that is quite an astonishing feat in itself.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Brian Gaze
18 July 2022 20:28:42

Tomorrow is quite complex, cloud/showers and the arrival of fresher air are all variables to be weary of. Hard to know exactly how it will play out.

Originally Posted by: Tim A 


Yes, tomorrow is a more difficult call than today for sure. Although a lot of the data supports 40C it is by no means certain.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
18 July 2022 21:22:48
Just looked at the wind arrows for tomorrow. Calm until daybreak, but from 7am onwards the wind really starts to get up.

By midday it’s blowing due southerly 14-16kt across almost the whole of England. The sea will be calmer than land.

This should mean very well mixed air and an extremely rapid warming in the morning, which will probably plateau frustratingly from lunchtime onwards.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Rob K
18 July 2022 21:28:07

Just looked at the wind arrows for tomorrow. Calm until daybreak, but from 7am onwards the wind really starts to get up.

By midday it’s blowing due southerly 14-16kt across almost the whole of England. The sea will be calmer than land.

This should mean very well mixed air and an extremely rapid warming in the morning, which will probably plateau frustratingly from lunchtime onwards.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


The Met tweeted an atmospheric profile suggesting complete mixing would result in a temp over 40C in Lincolnshire. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
18 July 2022 21:30:49


 


The Met tweeted an atmospheric profile suggesting complete mixing would result in a temp over 40C in Lincolnshire. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Good. With gusts up to 50kph we should be mixing nicely. 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
18 July 2022 21:52:07
GFS just coming out has forecast overnight temperatures tonight yet again lower than previous runs. In the last few days they’ve come down from a grotesque 27C to 26C, then today 25C, and now on the cusp of the event 24C. It’s quite possible we won’t break the nocturnal minimum record after all.

I wonder what the models got wrong. The same happened in 2003: while France suffered under multiple nights of 25C+, London kept dropping to 16-17C overnight even under very high 850hPa temps and, in that heatwave, high humidity.

And the daytime maxes tomorrow are a small downgrade too. Far fewer 41s.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Rob K
18 July 2022 22:35:19
Yes looking at the 11pm readings the temperatures are dropping much more than I expected. I think somewhere will hang on to a 24C but the daily CET mean record might be touch and go.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
snow 2004
18 July 2022 23:11:42
High of 35 degrees yesterday and it was still 30 at 9pm.

It’s felt so good and it was nice to have the day off. Still 25c now. Very much shades of 19th July 2016 where it was still 25.2C at midnight here.

That night ended up dropping to around 21. Think tonight may just beat that.
Glossop Derbyshire, 200m asl
picturesareme
18 July 2022 23:43:21

Yes looking at the 11pm readings the temperatures are dropping much more than I expected. I think somewhere will hang on to a 24C but the daily CET mean record might be touch and go.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


It's 27.5C still here at almost 1am I'm not expecting it to drop below 23C now... record breaker no but still a noteworthy warm night!! 

Heavy Weather 2013
19 July 2022 04:13:59
Isn’t it ironic, the daily express spent years gaslighting us with extreme weather stories on their front pages and now they barely have anything on their front pages because they have now decided that hot weather is ‘woke’
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Bugglesgate
19 July 2022 04:34:52

A real surprise this morning.   A pleasant and unexpected 16 deg.


The house is being purged of hot air as we speak.  I don’t think this was in the script for overnight temps.   Maybe I’m benefiting from a shallow temp inversion or maybe it’s Just a “rural thing”.  Otherwise it doesn’t bode well for breaking temp records today  !


 


Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
Justin W
19 July 2022 04:55:23
Currently 23.2c here at 5.50 am. A real sultry feel alreadyZ
Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
roadrunnerajn
19 July 2022 04:59:43

Thunderstorms already moving in from the SW. A monotone dark sky and a sticky 19c here. It appears to be moving very slowly so every chance the temps will rocket further east.


Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.

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