A classic example of an 'if only it was January' chart if ever there was one...

I would have thought the ensembles don't get much better than this for many people. Dry, very warm or hot, but not the extremes of July. Temps into the low to mid 30Cs. Now for me that's a 147 clearance.

Hope the op run isn’t the one though!

18Z is an absolute shocker. Amazing to think GFS was throwing out high 30s for mid month just a couple of days ago. Now it looks as if autumn starts on August 13th.

Summer equivalent of last Christmas when we went from a -15C beast on the models to near record breaking mildness in reality?

Its not just London - you know how to view charts for other cities I assume so I won’t post them here, but there is exactly the same pattern for Birmingham, Manchester and even Glasgow. 

Cumbria is one of the wettest spots in Europe. You can hardly expect it to have the same climate as the South East. It would be like living in Almeria and asking when are we going to get all that rain they’re enjoying in Asturias.

And again, on both GFS and GEM. The ops are completely out of kilter with the ensemble members from mid next week onwards. Also out of kilter with a very hot settled 00z UKMO.

GFS Op still has 6 consecutive days of 30C next week, with the hottest temperatures on the central South coast.

I agree with that in terms of any sunshine  as both of our summer months so far at Edinburgh Gogarbank (June and July) have been duller than average and this month isn't exactly setting the heather on fire either, as regards to sunshine totals.

As for rainfall though, it depends very much in NW Britain that you live. It needs to be borne in mind that although Edinburgh isn't quite as parched as England, most of us in the east of Scotland including here in Edinburgh have still been dry enough to warrant a moderate water scarcity classification by SEPA and so, I would say that we could actually do with getting a bit of rain here over an extended period of time.

As for the rest of NW Britain though, I would agree with you on that one as those areas haven't been as dry as it has been here.

The summary charts are at last showing some movement. In week 1 much as before i.e. warm/hot over W Europe just about creeping across the Channel into SE England, cooler in E Europe and definitely cool in N Scandinavia; but in week 2 there's a surge of warmth from the S in the direction of Finland with compensating cool-downs on either side, more so over W Russia than over Britain. Rain from NW Scotland across to the Baltic and also over the Alps (the damp patch in the N Sea was there in yesterday's charts, both am & pm, but now gone again)

Jet - not much action near Britain at first but coming and going across Scotland Wed 10th - Feb 19th

GFS - HP moving up from the SW 1030 mb SW Ireland Sun 7th transforming into a ridge from the Atlantic to Norway before retreating NW-wards and then W-wards from from Fri 12th eventually allowing LP to move to NI 995mb Sun 20th.

GEFS - steady increase to about 6C above norm by Fri 12th with good agreement amongst ens members after which so much divergence that there is no confidence (Scotland reaches a lesser max a couple of days earlier); FWIW the mean slowly decreases to norm by Sun 21st. Small amounts of rain in some ens members after the 12th.

ECM - differs from GFS in strengthening the ridge of HP and developing a centre over Baltic Fri 12th (GFS has a large area of LP in that area at that time). This collapses Mon 15th with HP retreating to the Atlantic

ECM going the UKMO route. Warm, sunny, settled right up to 240hrs.

That Op run keeps on doing that. Going for a mini spike followed by a sharp drop - a cooler version of what happened on July 19th. For the period Aug 13-19 something has got to give because it is clearly out of kilter with most other perturbations. I'm expecting the mean to start dipping over that period in future runs. 

Ensembles are a mess beyond the 12th.  But most are very warm/hot and dry

 NW Britain is not really known for its hot dry climate, earlier in the year it was pretty dry in parts of the Lakes according to reports from Farmers. Although all that means is it has gone a whole day without drizzling.

 Another 10 days or so for the South i think.

Perhaps 'normal summer weather to be resumed' in 10 days? Doesn't look (yet) as if we're on for a complete flip to cool and wet. 

ECM30 suggests anomalous warmth during the second half of August as does GEFS35.

This is one of the most telling charts

That would take us to 45 days with no measurable rainfall in parts of Hampshire (none since 30 June) and even June was hardly wet.

The GFS this morning resembles that of August 1981, bringing a good deal of fine conditions, warm rather than hot, but with a small potential for thundery outbreaks (not yet detected).

ECM ENS 00z looks like an "upgrade" for hot weather fans to me.

To be fair, I've just looked at the max temp charts from the op run and even the "cooler route" is pretty warm by UK summer standards. From today, max temps:

24, 25, 28, 30, 32, 33, 32, 33, 34, 28, 24, 20, 23, 27, 28, 26.

Only one day you could call "cool" for the south in that lot.

Going to see 22C today to 32-33C in here by later next week only if the sun fully shine.  Today unexpected clouds forming since 7am despite horrible so fresh air didn't keep the skies clear as expected.

Indeed. Well put, and one of the most perennially annoying facets of TWO: commenting on summery weather for the majority of the UK population is somehow a faux pas, unless we also consider the weather on the top of Scafell Pike, the Aberdeen suburbs and the north face of Rockall.

Of course, the opposite strangely doesn’t apply in winter, when it is snowing on Helvellyn and the Derbyshire Peaks, but bang average tepid rain for 70%+ of the UK population.