I’m with you on that!  It’s nice to break a record but any sustained heat is neither useful or useable. 

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There are likely to be some serious fire risks again in the coming weeks.

This is now without a doubt the driest summer I've ever known. Not quite old enough to remember 1976, but this summer has been absolutely exceptional.

I was rather expecting a rapid deterioration in August, as Matt Hugo, who I actually rate quite highly, over on Twitter, pretty much wrote off the rest of summer after the heat in mid-July.

Just goes to show, noone can reliably predict what is going to happen after about 5 days.

I've had my fingers burned on this, as I too, anticipated a significant worsening of the weather after we had got mid-July out of the way, but as it stands, we could be looking at a bone dry August too.

If this is the beginning of a drought, and next year follows a similar pattern, we could be in serious trouble next summer.

I gather the reason 1976 was such a severe drought was largely due to the weather in 1975.

We need to see a pattern reset in the Autumn to replenish the water. 

Are we in for a prolonged drought, or will the rains return with a vengeance in September?

Time will tell.

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We are observing the slow (or is it quick) death of the English and NW European climate.

Few want to hear this but several decades of further warming are baked in, I cant see how France survives in it's present from. It's forest are already wilted and leafless. They will be killed at some not too distant point. Ours are not so bad but this week or two will perhaps do the same to many trees.The water is running out in France too.

Crops? Can farmers take the risk? Dairying, grazing? What's the future? Food is going to get more and more difficult to produce.

Wake up weather and meteorology followers! Get active! Write to your MPs! Tell them we need to ultra conserve water NOW and we need to get to net zero yesterday! Start protesting!

Just do something!  Don't shrug, don't wave it all away as just the weather. This is an awful reality and for future generations sake we have to get active and act and quickly.

Hi Dev, good to see you back posting. Completely agree though this post should be in another thread.

In terms of the Model output, good to see ECM on board with the intense heat. Almost a full set, UKMO looks the coolest in terms of uppers

 

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Great post, and spot on.

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Incredibly hot ECM ensembles!

 

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Yup. Maximum overdrive. 

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I wasn't around in 1975 and 1976, but from what I have heard about it, the 1975 summer was a pretty decent one overall too although nothing exceptional like the following year.

For me, 1995 must have come pretty close to 1976 for dryness. I recall the late, great Ian McAskill saying at the start of one BBC forecast in late July 1995 that that month and the preceding three months had been the driest four months in the UK (or some areas of it) since 1976. I remember seeing this forecast on YouTube a while ago and will post it here if I can find it again.

IIRC, in 1995, the weather changed at the end of August/start of September and the UK then had a rather wetter spell of weather. The same thing also happened in 1976, I believe.

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And there I was thinking you were in your 70s David 😅😅😅

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I was born in 1979, so the first notably warm and dry summer I can clearly recall was that of 1989. I believe 1983 and 1984 were also pretty good too, although they are both a little too far back for me to recall in any detail and furthermore, those summers were a good few years before my interest in the weather really got going.

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I'm not great at this stuff, but I think the ensembles show a cool down by the operational run not? And if pushed we'd rely on the ensembles?

Whatever, what is happening is meteorological madness. We should all be very, seriously, and deeply concerned.

Seriously Brian, write to your MP and demand a nationwide hose pipe ban now. Look at what is happening in France for the why you should.

By the end of August it was indeed (and remains) the driest summer on record, drier than 1976. There were serious water shortages which persisted until 1997. But unlike 76 the previous summer and winter weren’t dry even though 94 was a hot one - and remained hottest on record in the Netherlands until I think 2003. A lot of the 1995 water shortages were avoidable, and exacerbated by poor water infrastructure.

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Excellent assessment

I would expect a pattern change as we reach September with some useful rainfall which occurred in 1975, 1976 and 1995 from memory but even if that happens it's what follows that is crucial. In 1975 it became dry again in October whereas 1976 was a waterfest.

Meanwhile we're heading into the furnace again and even longer term it seems on the warm side. ECM looks potentially thundery in slack conditions after next week so something to hope for.

Great to see Dev posting btw 

1995 drought actually effectively carried on until late 1997 with only the odd wet month thrown in here and there like June 1997. September 95 was wetter but overall that was a pretty dry autumn and winter .
1996 was an exceptionally dry year too although rather cold. It wasn't until the wet November 1997 that things began to turn and the soaking April 1998 then marked a true sea change (pun unintended) to very wet weather that lasted several years.
I am hoping for the sake of the garden and water supplies that out reset this time comes before next summer ...

About half around here.  The die  was cast a while ago, though,  as the size of the grains  are small and rain now will just serve to hamper the harvest, not improve grain quality.

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Unfortunately, I am old enough to remember-3rd year at  Secondary School in 1976.

It all seemed to start with snow in June .... in 1975.   Then  very little   rain   from then on in summer 75 and winter 75-76.  Summer 76  then put the cap on things in terms of water shortages.

A dry winter 22-23 and another heatwave in summer 23 will stuff us totally. Standpipes would be nailed on !!

Summer 75 wasn't a patch on what we have seen this summer.

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I realise we’re well off topic here but just to add yes vines are very drought resistant once established. New vines can suffer but even then they’re much better in drought than most other trees. 

Grapes less so, especially cool climate varieties like Pinot and Chardonnay. In drought years the yield tends to be very low - grapes need rain to swell up, so you get small berries with intense flavour and colour which is fine if you’re making still red wine but not great for sparkling or light whites. Quality also suffers for still if it’s too hot and dry - you get that jammy taste and fiery alcohol content that still ruins many new world wines. Though we are some way off that in the UK - more a problem for Burgundy, Bordeaux and Northern Italy.

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Funny how the 'but 1976' brigade of a couple of weeks ago have only had to wait a week or two for a 1976esque pattern to be on the cards

GFS back to the northerly cool off, but still dry. lets see what the ens do

 

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Yes David 1995 was very dry until the end of August.

i remember 75 and 76 August 75 was quite hot and 76 was hot for nearly all of August when it broke down a week after they appontes Dénis Howell as Minister for drought ! The next few weeks were very wet and I think we had made up the defecit in Coventry by the end of September with flooding an issue I remember the river Sowe at Baginton flooding badly.

I had a schizophrenic summer in '76, which I've mentioned before somewhere.

We'd moved house from Manchester to (near) Maidstone at Whitsun (when it was still still quite cool and drizzly) to match the house selling chain, but I had to complete the term teaching in Manchester.

So for that half term it was a weekend commute from a green and pleasant NW - average summer weather - to a roasting SE to be welcomed by my wife in bikini as everyday wear.

But there was one day, just after the end of term, when a spectacular thunderstorm travelled south across Maidstone and drenched an area probably only about 3 miles either side of the storm oath.

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Control develops thunderstorm potential for the SE

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Pert 6 looks like being the insane heat member of this set

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Just in case. Warm, dry modeled till 192h GFS ;)

Please mods excuse me for going off topic, I'm usually a just a reader., you'll probably throw this out or at best place in UIA.

 

1976 from memory seemed to be just a long warm to hot summer. No rain fell at all till end of August and 75 was a decent summer too.

 

The very warm dry weather of 76(correct me if I'm wrong) was nationwide.

However this summer has not been nationwide has it?

 

The hot and continuous dry weather has been mainly in the South East, England, and South East Wales. (Although recently we did have a night of some rain)

 

Somehow this year is very different from all the other years including 76.

 

 I read the posts, I very rarely post anything on here as I'm not up with the

Science, I don't understand the weather technobab on here, so don't want to make an even bigger fool than I already am.(btw you may have noticed my speeling nad grammer are rubbish on account I was hardly in school, not for bunking off, but for good sound reasons).

 

I'm more of the folk lore type i.e. I can smell when snow coming a mile off.

Believe it or not I have danced the occasional rain dance, which to my shock and those around me has worked several times. (I won't do it now as I selfishly want the warm dry weather to continue, (That speaks volumes) and that’s as far as my weather credentials go.

 

To be honest at my age (even though I still feel like I'm still 18), I find it increasingly difficult to want to be around on this planet anymore as this feels like I'm in an alternate dimension, I’ve been transported to this strange planet, partly populated with Big brother idiots and the various countries lead by numpties.

 

I've been saying for years they should sink more reservoirs, but after summer 76, most of the summers (bar a few freaks) have been a wash out. (Hence why, I want the hot dry weather to continue.)

 

All the wet winters and crap summers we’ve had, I would say the thinking of corporate water is that we don’t need to fix the leaks or sink anymore reservoirs, but instead, let’s keep the profits for ourselves and the Shareholders. (Viva renationalisation as privatisation was and is a con). ( and that’s from  one who has always voted conservative, not anymore). Thank you JC J

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We looked certain to meet heatwave criteria from today or tomorrow onwards, so why hasn’t the MetO released any updates to that affect? Or have they? If they have the gutter press aren’t pushing it as much as usual

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