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Spring Sun Winter Dread
06 August 2022 11:43:29
The above was a common lament in the 1990s too
I tend to agree with the late Philip Eden who said words to the effect of... Climate change is real but is also over used as an excuse by people who haven't managed things properly and don't make enough provision for obvious risks inherent in a climate as naturally variable as ours
Sevendust
06 August 2022 11:51:41

We looked certain to meet heatwave criteria from today or tomorrow onwards, so why hasn’t the MetO released any updates to that affect? Or have they? If they have the gutter press aren’t pushing it as much as usual

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Probably because the hyperbole of reaching 40'c has been achieved. 32'c doesn't get them excited nowadays

doctormog
06 August 2022 12:10:28
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/?tab=heatHealth&season=normal#?tab=heatHealth 

It looks like a decent spell of weather coming up, very warm and sunny in many parts without the extreme heat of July’s event, (and still looking notably dry).
The Beast from the East
06 August 2022 12:35:05


 


 


The very warm dry weather of 76(correct me if I'm wrong) was nationwide.


However this summer has not been nationwide has it?


 


The hot and continuous dry weather has been mainly in the South East, England, and South East Wales. (Although recently we did have a night of some rain)


 


 


Originally Posted by: Osprey 


Yes, 76 was a one off because it was nationwide, or at least much more nationwide than this year or 2018


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
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TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
06 August 2022 14:12:24


 


Yes, 76 was a one off because it was nationwide, or at least much more nationwide than this year or 2018


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Although summer 2018 was behind 1976 on the CET, yet equal to it on UK wide temperature, which implies the opposite.


I just looked at sunshine hours and 1976, 1995 and 2018 are pretty similar for the NW England and N Wales region, with 1976 just beating 1995 (20 hours in it ie 10-15 mins per day) although if you include May and/or September 2018 runs away with it.


As I’ve commented dozens of times, 1995 was right up there with 1976 yet gets forgotten by people of 60+ because it wasn’t during their formative years.


The summer that was really regionally “unfair” was 2003. Much much warmer, sunnier and drier in the SE than NW.


 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Chunky Pea
06 August 2022 14:35:34


 


The summer that was really regionally “unfair” was 2003. Much much warmer, sunnier and drier in the SE than NW.


 


Originally Posted by: TimS 


I'm likely the most western based member on the forum and what little I remember of summer 2003 is that it was a good for some pretty incredible and frequent thunderstorms. The sort that make a huge racket while overhead but only last about 30 to 60 mins before the hot sum popped out again. 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
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Brian Gaze
06 August 2022 15:11:10
Subjective of course, but I'm wondering if this coming week will be one of the best summery spells of all time. At least in the south. Depends what you like, but a week into the low to mid 30Cs sounds the ticket to me.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Osprey
06 August 2022 15:11:41


 


Although summer 2018 was behind 1976 on the CET, yet equal to it on UK wide temperature, which implies the opposite.


I just looked at sunshine hours and 1976, 1995 and 2018 are pretty similar for the NW England and N Wales region, with 1976 just beating 1995 (20 hours in it ie 10-15 mins per day) although if you include May and/or September 2018 runs away with it.


As I’ve commented dozens of times, 1995 was right up there with 1976 yet gets forgotten by people of 60+ because it wasn’t during their formative years.


The summer that was really regionally “unfair” was 2003. Much much warmer, sunnier and drier in the SE than NW.


 


Originally Posted by: TimS 


For me I was in my 20's when 76 came along, and the 60's (school kid) in my mind were always good summers. I remember winter 63 we lived block of flats in Tulse Hill (Nr Brixton), and the cast iron soil pipe freezing solid and the council plumber trying to melt the frozen waste with a paraffin torch. 


Getting back to summers, yes, I only remember 76, and the only reason I remember 2006 is that we were in Perth & Broome WA and receiving text from my daughter saying how hot it was in the UK, but most of the memories were of crappy summers every year, which seems to override any good summers we did get here in the UK.


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TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
06 August 2022 16:01:27

Subjective of course, but I'm wondering if this coming week will be one of the best summery spells of all time. At least in the south. Depends what you like, but a week into the low to mid 30Cs sounds the ticket to me.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


This from the admittedly always optimistic weatheronline certainly has the look of a forecast for a holiday destination: 


https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/city?PLZ=WC2R&PLZN=London&LANG=en&CEL=C&SI=mph&CONT=ukuk&LAND=SOU&REGION=0003&WMO=03772&LEVEL=52&R=0&NOREGION=0


 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
David M Porter
06 August 2022 16:30:22


 


Yes, 76 was a one off because it was nationwide, or at least much more nationwide than this year or 2018


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


The glorious summers of both 2018 and 1995 were nationwide too. Some parts of Scotland recorded temperatures close to 30C in both of those summers. The main difference between those two years is that 1995 had a glorious August whereas that month in 2018 was something of a disappointment, coming as it did during a long run of fairly poor Augusts.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
doctormog
06 August 2022 16:38:49
The 12z GFS continues to paint a very nice picture for next week.
Osprey
06 August 2022 16:59:57

Hope I'm wrong (which is more often than...), I've a gut feeling after next week, I'm not going to say it cos I don't want to jinx this gorgeous weather, 



but I'll leave it there and  hope I'm wrong. (i don't want this weather to end!)

 
Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
Osprey
06 August 2022 17:09:22

One other thing is August was usually a tulipmonth and come September, after the kids went back to school, the weather was brilliant. It will be interesting to see what this September will bring! I do hope the good weather will continue, that will def smash summer 1976...


Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
Retron
06 August 2022 17:09:31


Hope I'm wrong (which is more often than...), I've a gut feeling after next week, I'm not going to say it cos I don't want to jinx this gorgeous weather, 



but I'll leave it there and  hope I'm wrong. (i don't want this weather to end!)

 

Originally Posted by: Osprey 


Yes, some signs of an upper trough moving in as the whole pattern shifts a bit. That'd displace this heat and introduce some rain in those places which haven't seen much over the past few weeks. No complaints from me were to that to happen, but this does seem to be the summer that never ends! I'm not getting my hopes up just yet.


Leysdown, north Kent
Osprey
06 August 2022 17:16:37


 


Yes, some signs of an upper trough moving in as the whole pattern shifts a bit. That'd displace this heat and introduce some rain in those places which haven't seen much over the past few weeks. No complaints from me were to that to happen, but this does seem to be the summer that never ends! I'm not getting my hopes up just yet.


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Yes, even October (apart from Sept) has been, known to chuck in a few heatwaves, before the wet cold weather comes in... (Or did I dream that?)


Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
06 August 2022 17:17:14

GFS 12z is a long term rainfest but I expect a big wet and cold outlier.


EDIT: though GEM is similar. 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Osprey
06 August 2022 17:37:25

You know what's unusual is we haven't had any breakdowns leading to to thunder storms so far this year...


Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
Rob K
06 August 2022 17:43:38


 


Yes, even October (apart from Sept) has been, known to chuck in a few heatwaves, before the wet cold weather comes in... (Or did I dream that?)


Originally Posted by: Osprey 


Yes October 2011 had a very hot beginning, I remember it was just after my daughter was born, and my two weeks of paternity leave at the end of September and beginning of October was proper holiday weather. 


And talking of my daughter I just took the kids to the park and it felt too hot already, before the real heat arrives. But that’s probably just because I am tired and irritable after spending most of last night dismantling a kitchen!


 


If my week in Guernsey was starting today instead of next Saturday it would be just about the perfect week. As it is, 12Z GFS shows a rather nasty wet week. Hopefully the trend will improve. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Osprey
06 August 2022 18:04:11


 


Yes October 2011 had a very hot beginning, I remember it was just after my daughter was born, and my two weeks of paternity leave at the end of September and beginning of October was proper holiday weather. 


And talking of my daughter I just took the kids to the park and it felt too hot already, before the real heat arrives. But that’s probably just because I am tired and irritable after spending most of last night dismantling a kitchen!


 


If my week in Guernsey was starting today instead of next Saturday it would be just about the perfect week. As it is, 12Z GFS shows a rather nasty wet week. Hopefully the trend will improve. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Bet your bottom dollar the models will change.


Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
06 August 2022 18:37:48
Looking at the current models the pattern is very similar to end of July / early August 1995. Broad High pressure over Britain and to the East, slack Easterlies, low to mid 30s.

August 1995 was the best month in British weather history, in my opinion. Better than July 1983, 2006 and 2018. Partly because it was August, partly because of the sustained hot-but-not-too-hot weather. In Oxford the modal max temp that month was 30C.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Rob K
06 August 2022 19:35:53
Models are definitely firming up on a low pressure dominated week from the 15th now.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Downpour
06 August 2022 23:25:36
On holiday in the West Country this coming week. Might escape with 31c. Rather that than the 34c+ IMBY.

As Moomin implies, this must be the hottest, driest washout summer of all time.
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Downpour
06 August 2022 23:27:50

Looking at the current models the pattern is very similar to end of July / early August 1995. Broad High pressure over Britain and to the East, slack Easterlies, low to mid 30s.

August 1995 was the best month in British weather history, in my opinion. Better than July 1983, 2006 and 2018. Partly because it was August, partly because of the sustained hot-but-not-too-hot weather. In Oxford the modal max temp that month was 30C.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


Indeed. August is and will always be the quintessential summer month. Children off school and all of Europe on holiday. 


Chingford
London E4
147ft
Retron
07 August 2022 04:58:47

It's interesting to see the difference in heat forecast by the various big models.


The UKV is by far the coolest here:



25C by the weekend, warm but bearable.


The BBC has 26C today rising to 31C for next Saturday.


The GFS, meanwhile, also starts at 26C for today but ramps it up to 32C on Friday (and then 30C on Saturday).


I suspect the BBC and GFS will be closer to the mark, albeit with an onshore breeze I'd be surprised to see the low 30s, I think high 20s is more likely.


The Met Office site often has a way of ninja-increasing the temperatures closer to the time (e.g. yesterday's forecast started off at 21C on Friday, then turned into 24C by yesterday afternoon. The actual max was 23.8C.)


Leysdown, north Kent
Retron
07 August 2022 05:19:37

A bit further afield, it's weird to see both the Beeb and MetO websites blithely forecasting 35C+ for Heathrow at the end of the week (the ECM ensembles are rock-solid too), without much of a frenzy going on in the media. This summer is the equivalent of hitting -30C in winter, then having a spell of -25C weather a couple of weeks later... truly exceptional stuff.


Leysdown, north Kent
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