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TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
20 August 2022 17:41:51
Real spread in the ensemble output from mid next week. From much warmer to much cooler. For statistics sake I hope it goes the warm route.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
bledur
20 August 2022 18:04:59


Not been able to pop in for a couple of days. What happened to the day's rain spreading in from the west Sunday night/Monday??


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


 Still coming on Monday. Amounts look variable but could be heavy bursts in places.

bledur
20 August 2022 18:06:22

Real spread in the ensemble output from mid next week. From much warmer to much cooler. For statistics sake I hope it goes the warm route.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


 Looks more likely average temps north wind and dry with the hot weather staying in Europe

Ally Pally Snowman
21 August 2022 07:07:10

Might not be done with th 30c days just yet. GFS and ECM look hot next week. 


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
21 August 2022 07:15:09

Warm weather hangs on for England and across to the Baltic in week 1, but there is a general retreat southwards in week 2, confirming yesterday's output. The boundary is approximately S France to S Poland to mid-Urals; N Africa and the Caspian still hot but N Norway looking quite cold. Rain well distributed across W Europe week 1, but - quite different from yesterday's forecast - a large band of quite heavy rain from the Atlantic, across England and up to the Baltic in week 2.


Jet active near Britain for a day or so now, then nothing until Sat 3rd when a loop develops and moves E-wards.


GFS Op - LP N of Scotland to start the week; on Fri 26th LP begins to move N from France, timing its run up the E coast to match the BH weekend (BBC also suggesting something unsettled for the SE at end of this week). A ridge of HP N-S over Ireland for a few days from Tue 30th, but it collapses and LP is in position off SW Ireland Sat 3rd, deepening and moving up the Channel to Holland 995mb Tue 6th.


GEFS - warm (several runs 5C above norm in S, only just above norm in N)) by Thu 25th, slowly declining to norm by end of forecast Tue 6th but with increasing uncertainty. Some rain around Sat 27th, earlier in N, more towards end of run everywhere.


ECM - similar to GFS but that N-S ridge is in place a day or two earlier


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
21 August 2022 07:16:46


Might not be done with th 30c days just yet. GFS and ECM look hot next week. 


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


The only heat is Essex?


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
21 August 2022 07:31:57


 


The only heat is Essex?


Originally Posted by: DEW 


I'd say more Dorset to Norfolk. 


 


 https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=17&run=0&time=135&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
The Beast from the East
21 August 2022 08:14:55

GFS ends cold as with ECM


Winter is Coming



"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Jiries
21 August 2022 08:53:12


Might not be done with th 30c days just yet. GFS and ECM look hot next week. 


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


High 20's in here so look great next week then warm BH weekend to end of the month.

The Beast from the East
21 August 2022 11:50:00

GFS op and control both look hot for the SE later this week before the cool down



"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
21 August 2022 17:06:37
Quiet in here today.

This evening’s runs starting to coalesce a little. Head for the East mid week, then a brief unsettled interlude, then ridging and more widespread but gentle warmth.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
21 August 2022 19:08:03

Yes decent  tonight, after a couple of days of iffy output.  Very warm and sunny for most of England. 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
22 August 2022 06:08:13


Not been able to pop in for a couple of days. What happened to the day's rain spreading in from the west Sunday night/Monday??


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


It's been eliminated with extreme prejudice and as of Monday morning too as seems to be the case with recent forecasts for rain around here.


The Met Office are suggesting Remaining humid on Wednesday with a chance of showers. Longer spells of rain possible on Wednesday


But based on recent past experience I'd take that forecast with a large pinch of salt. The long dry continues in this part of South Dorset.


 


 


Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
Jiries
22 August 2022 06:19:15


 


It's been eliminated with extreme prejudice and as of Monday morning too as seems to be the case with recent forecasts for rain around here.


The Met Office are suggesting Remaining humid on Wednesday with a chance of showers. Longer spells of rain possible on Wednesday


But based on recent past experience I'd take that forecast with a large pinch of salt. The long dry continues in this part of South Dorset.


 


 


Originally Posted by: NMA 


I notice the apps kept putting all day rain yesterday, last night, today but outside sunny with some clouds.  Apps are really useless and always obsessed with cloud and rain, 3-4C under estimated temperatures.  Even this coming week expecting to be 28C here put rain and 25C and rain in Epsom at 28C?  Seem desperate for bad weather when reality not shown on the models with HP next week and hot spell this week.  Window watching is the way to go now.

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
22 August 2022 06:40:50

WX temp summaries broadly similar to yesterday, the serious heat retreating S-wards slowly and in week 2 down to S France across to S Poland while cool weather is present from Shetland through to Scandinavia. That leaves more of a wedge than there was yesterday with pleasantly warm temps covering the British Isles and W Europe generally, though not as warm in SE England as previously indicated. Small amounts of rain in patches all across Europe in week 1, more co-ordinated week 2 over W Britain and, separately, the Alps.


GFS Op - LPs near Scotland with a W/SW flow this week until weak ridge of HP lying SW-NE arises on Sat 27th which moves around a bit - some threat from LP over France - but collapses Fri 2nd as LP moves down from Iceland 995mb W of Ireland by Sun 4th, cool in the west, some warmth to the east dragged up from the S. That Lp continues to drift SE-wards to Cornwall by Wed 7th.


GEFS - warm in the S around Thu 25th slowly dropping back to norm by end of forecast period Wed 7th, small amounts of rain in some ens members until Thu 1st when appearing in most of them. In the N, less of a peak in temps, similar distribution of rainfall but some extra in the W early on.


ECM - similar to GFS (at least to Wed 29th when 0z not available at time of posting - I have to go out early today)


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Sevendust
22 August 2022 09:20:33

The outlook for the south remains rather warm overall with not much rain

ballamar
22 August 2022 09:53:04
Really is very dry outlook for the South. I know it’s not scientific but thinks we will pay for it when the Atlantic jet kicks in. Stormy October is on the cards.
Gusty
22 August 2022 09:58:23

Yes, it looks as though the previously modelled wet day on Friday down here has been dropped, for now at least.


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



fairweather
22 August 2022 10:34:58


 


 Still coming on Monday. Amounts look variable but could be heavy bursts in places.


Originally Posted by: bledur 


None forecast for South East now,


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Jiries
22 August 2022 11:45:40


Yes, it looks as though the previously modelled wet day on Friday down here has been dropped, for now at least.


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Good for them and here no rain today and really nice day today, this month had seen sunshine every single day compare to dullest July on record here.  Look nice on the output and staying warm side with low to mid 20's. 

cultman1
22 August 2022 13:41:35
Looking at The Met Office App I see today they have downgraded sunshine amounts coupled with increased cloud for the week ahead and into the weekend for the London area .
Sevendust
22 August 2022 13:47:27

Looking at The Met Office App I see today they have downgraded sunshine amounts coupled with increased cloud for the week ahead and into the weekend for the London area .

Originally Posted by: cultman1 


Warmer nights then

briggsy6
22 August 2022 14:40:41

One more heatwave before we enter the season of mists and mellow fruitfulness? An Indian Summer I confidently predict, with a hot start to Sept.


Location: Uxbridge
Gusty
22 August 2022 15:36:08


One more heatwave before we enter the season of mists and mellow fruitfulness? An Indian Summer I confidently predict, with a hot start to Sept.


Originally Posted by: briggsy6 


Don't we need a heatwave after the first frosts for the definition of an Indian Summer to be achieved  ? 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
22 August 2022 15:50:34


 


Don't we need a heatwave after the first frosts for the definition of an Indian Summer to be achieved  ? 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Frosts are so rare in autumn these days that I think the traditional definition doesn't work very well anymore. It was a North American thing. I would say summer weather in October or at a push late September onwards probably counts, after the first "autumnal" spell of weather. So heat in the first week of Sept this year would be an extension of the actual summer rather than an Indian summer.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl

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