Warm weather hangs on for England and across to the Baltic in week 1, but there is a general retreat southwards in week 2, confirming yesterday's output. The boundary is approximately S France to S Poland to mid-Urals; N Africa and the Caspian still hot but N Norway looking quite cold. Rain well distributed across W Europe week 1, but - quite different from yesterday's forecast - a large band of quite heavy rain from the Atlantic, across England and up to the Baltic in week 2.
Jet active near Britain for a day or so now, then nothing until Sat 3rd when a loop develops and moves E-wards.
GFS Op - LP N of Scotland to start the week; on Fri 26th LP begins to move N from France, timing its run up the E coast to match the BH weekend (BBC also suggesting something unsettled for the SE at end of this week). A ridge of HP N-S over Ireland for a few days from Tue 30th, but it collapses and LP is in position off SW Ireland Sat 3rd, deepening and moving up the Channel to Holland 995mb Tue 6th.
GEFS - warm (several runs 5C above norm in S, only just above norm in N)) by Thu 25th, slowly declining to norm by end of forecast Tue 6th but with increasing uncertainty. Some rain around Sat 27th, earlier in N, more towards end of run everywhere.
ECM - similar to GFS but that N-S ridge is in place a day or two earlier
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl