Real spread in the ensemble output from mid next week. From much warmer to much cooler. For statistics sake I hope it goes the warm route.

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 Still coming on Monday. Amounts look variable but could be heavy bursts in places.

 Looks more likely average temps north wind and dry with the hot weather staying in Europe

Might not be done with th 30c days just yet. GFS and ECM look hot next week. 

 

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Warm weather hangs on for England and across to the Baltic in week 1, but there is a general retreat southwards in week 2, confirming yesterday's output. The boundary is approximately S France to S Poland to mid-Urals; N Africa and the Caspian still hot but N Norway looking quite cold. Rain well distributed across W Europe week 1, but - quite different from yesterday's forecast - a large band of quite heavy rain from the Atlantic, across England and up to the Baltic in week 2.

Jet active near Britain for a day or so now, then nothing until Sat 3rd when a loop develops and moves E-wards.

GFS Op - LP N of Scotland to start the week; on Fri 26th LP begins to move N from France, timing its run up the E coast to match the BH weekend (BBC also suggesting something unsettled for the SE at end of this week). A ridge of HP N-S over Ireland for a few days from Tue 30th, but it collapses and LP is in position off SW Ireland Sat 3rd, deepening and moving up the Channel to Holland 995mb Tue 6th.

GEFS - warm (several runs 5C above norm in S, only just above norm in N)) by Thu 25th, slowly declining to norm by end of forecast Tue 6th but with increasing uncertainty. Some rain around Sat 27th, earlier in N, more towards end of run everywhere.

ECM - similar to GFS but that N-S ridge is in place a day or two earlier

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The only heat is Essex?

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I'd say more Dorset to Norfolk. 

 

 https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=17&run=0&time=135&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

 

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GFS ends cold as with ECM

Winter is Coming

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High 20's in here so look great next week then warm BH weekend to end of the month.

GFS op and control both look hot for the SE later this week before the cool down

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Quiet in here today.

This evening’s runs starting to coalesce a little. Head for the East mid week, then a brief unsettled interlude, then ridging and more widespread but gentle warmth.

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Yes decent  tonight, after a couple of days of iffy output.  Very warm and sunny for most of England. 

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It's been eliminated with extreme prejudice and as of Monday morning too as seems to be the case with recent forecasts for rain around here.

The Met Office are suggesting Remaining humid on Wednesday with a chance of showers. Longer spells of rain possible on Wednesday. 

But based on recent past experience I'd take that forecast with a large pinch of salt. The long dry continues in this part of South Dorset.

 

 

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I notice the apps kept putting all day rain yesterday, last night, today but outside sunny with some clouds.  Apps are really useless and always obsessed with cloud and rain, 3-4C under estimated temperatures.  Even this coming week expecting to be 28C here put rain and 25C and rain in Epsom at 28C?  Seem desperate for bad weather when reality not shown on the models with HP next week and hot spell this week.  Window watching is the way to go now.

WX temp summaries broadly similar to yesterday, the serious heat retreating S-wards slowly and in week 2 down to S France across to S Poland while cool weather is present from Shetland through to Scandinavia. That leaves more of a wedge than there was yesterday with pleasantly warm temps covering the British Isles and W Europe generally, though not as warm in SE England as previously indicated. Small amounts of rain in patches all across Europe in week 1, more co-ordinated week 2 over W Britain and, separately, the Alps.

GFS Op - LPs near Scotland with a W/SW flow this week until weak ridge of HP lying SW-NE arises on Sat 27th which moves around a bit - some threat from LP over France - but collapses Fri 2nd as LP moves down from Iceland 995mb W of Ireland by Sun 4th, cool in the west, some warmth to the east dragged up from the S. That Lp continues to drift SE-wards to Cornwall by Wed 7th.

GEFS - warm in the S around Thu 25th slowly dropping back to norm by end of forecast period Wed 7th, small amounts of rain in some ens members until Thu 1st when appearing in most of them. In the N, less of a peak in temps, similar distribution of rainfall but some extra in the W early on.

ECM - similar to GFS (at least to Wed 29th when 0z not available at time of posting - I have to go out early today)

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The outlook for the south remains rather warm overall with not much rain

Really is very dry outlook for the South. I know it’s not scientific but thinks we will pay for it when the Atlantic jet kicks in. Stormy October is on the cards.

Yes, it looks as though the previously modelled wet day on Friday down here has been dropped, for now at least.

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None forecast for South East now,

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Good for them and here no rain today and really nice day today, this month had seen sunshine every single day compare to dullest July on record here.  Look nice on the output and staying warm side with low to mid 20's. 

Looking at The Met Office App I see today they have downgraded sunshine amounts coupled with increased cloud for the week ahead and into the weekend for the London area .

Warmer nights then

One more heatwave before we enter the season of mists and mellow fruitfulness? An Indian Summer I confidently predict, with a hot start to Sept.

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Don't we need a heatwave after the first frosts for the definition of an Indian Summer to be achieved  ? 

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Frosts are so rare in autumn these days that I think the traditional definition doesn't work very well anymore. It was a North American thing. I would say summer weather in October or at a push late September onwards probably counts, after the first "autumnal" spell of weather. So heat in the first week of Sept this year would be an extension of the actual summer rather than an Indian summer.

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