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Tim A
08 November 2022 09:28:18
Looks more zonal/windy/cooler but nothing particularly exciting from a wintery point of view.
Met Office have been plugging conditions settling down but don't see any signs of that.
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
David M Porter
08 November 2022 09:52:40

Looks more zonal/windy/cooler but nothing particularly exciting from a wintery point of view.
Met Office have been plugging conditions settling down but don't see any signs of that.

Originally Posted by: Tim A 


I reckon the MetO must be seeing something from their information that we can't see from what is available to us?


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
ballamar
08 November 2022 10:15:57
Looks like a potentially nasty storm mid next week brewing - many of the trees still in pretty much full leaf around here as well
Lionel Hutz
08 November 2022 10:16:05


 


I reckon the MetO must be seeing something from their information that we can't see from what is available to us?


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


It does seem a bit unlikely but the GFS ensembles suggest a 5 dayish dry spell beginning in a couple of days time.


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?modelrun=na&lg=850&lglocation=london


Thereafter and now getting into the semi reliable, we're back to unsettled conditions but with temperatures down to average, after a long mild spell. We might even see a few blues coming into the WX temperature anomaly map if we're very, very lucky!


http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4


 


 


Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



Brian Gaze
08 November 2022 10:47:52


 


I reckon the MetO must be seeing something from their information that we can't see from what is available to us?


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Not that old chestnut again. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
ballamar
08 November 2022 11:17:07
It is quite possible the usual jet stream could tilt more NW to SE looking at the NH profile and this could well creat colder than usual conditions. Time will tell but seeing how it all develops will keep it interesting
David M Porter
08 November 2022 11:32:49


 


Not that old chestnut again. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Hmmm, something must be making the MetO believe consistently that there will be a change to more settled weather towards the back end of this month, Brian.


Exactly what that is I have no idea, because while there have been tentative suggestions from the models in FI of a change to HP dominated weather later this month in some runs, there have been few and far between and not with any real consistency that I can remember.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Brian Gaze
08 November 2022 11:35:00


 


Hmmm, something must be making the MetO believe consistently that there will be a change to more settled weather towards the back end of this month, Brian.


Exactly what that is I have no idea, because while there have been tentative suggestions from the models in FI of a change to HP dominated weather later this month in some runs, there have been few and far between and not with any real consistency that I can remember.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


There is a reasonable signal for pressure to build again after a more unsettled period.



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
ballamar
08 November 2022 13:41:10
CFS shows how it could play out with a Scandi high
ballamar
09 November 2022 07:59:49
Scandi high on GFS op run right at the end, nice to see a cooler scenario. Hopefully we will see the change in the models coming through soon with some more seasonal output
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
09 November 2022 08:02:08

WX temps - W Europe still all above seasonal norm notably Scandinavia which though cold is well above. For week 2 WX has reinstated the incursion of cold air from Siberia, this time heading more SE-ly, towards the Black Sea; W Europe a modest cooling. This weekend's unusually mild weather forecast by other sources not really showing up - does it just not last long enough? Rain on Atlantic from Britain down through France in week 1 with dry area in Ukraine, then in week 2 retreating to Atlantic fringes and dry area extending W-wards to Alps.


GFS Op - LPs at first moving past NW Britain but by Sat 12th HP established 1035mb Germany and extensive enough to cover Britain; winds going round to S as HP shrinks E-wards and Small but deep LP arrives S Ireland 980mb Tue 15th. LP on Atlantic near NW Scotland then the major influence for the rest of that week (but not as prevalent as yesterday) though the HP never gives up and by Sun 20th is back over Germany. From there it expands slowly becoming intense 1050mb Norway Fri 25th with broad ridge covering Britain.


ECM - pattern like GFS but LP 15th is further to the SW, and later that week LP is closer to W Britain. End of run is Sat 19th, too oon to confirm the resurgence of HP but looks less promising than om GFS.


GEFS - A (very) mild and dry (SE) or less wet (NW) spell to Mon 14th after which abruptly back to normal temps and frequent rainfall, even occasional snow row figures showing in far N. 


BBC - suggesting that the date record most likely to be broken at the end of this week is the overnight minimum for Scotland perhaps reaching 16C in Aberdeenshire. Other date records at risk, again other overnight records are the ones to be watching.


 


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
David M Porter
09 November 2022 09:18:20

Scandi high on GFS op run right at the end, nice to see a cooler scenario. Hopefully we will see the change in the models coming through soon with some more seasonal output

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


It sure would be good to have a more settled spell after all the wet weather here of the last five weeks or so, whether it is of the mild or cold type.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
ballamar
09 November 2022 10:19:08


 


It sure would be good to have a more settled spell after all the wet weather here of the last five weeks or so, whether it is of the mild or cold type.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Definitely would be good to see some settled weather now, likely to come with colder conditions this time of year and I believe it will balance out over the coming few weeks with some much colder conditions. Time will tell but there are some signs it will get colder

Russwirral
09 November 2022 10:52:11
Interesting end to the GFS

Would certainly make sense after alot of WAA
ballamar
09 November 2022 11:24:04
GFS is FI range for the build of heights over Scandi but definitely a consideration with all the warmer air pumped North something has to give
nsrobins
09 November 2022 17:08:31
It’s that time of year when things could change quite quickly from the current established mild and wet pattern to something dryer, colder and dare I say seasonal. There are strong hints in the extended GEFS of heights building over or to our east towards the end of Nov, and the UKM extended is picking up on this I reckon.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Whiteout
09 November 2022 17:40:58

It’s that time of year when things could change quite quickly from the current established mild and wet pattern to something dryer, colder and dare I say seasonal. There are strong hints in the extended GEFS of heights building over or to our east towards the end of Nov, and the UKM extended is picking up on this I reckon.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Here we go again Neil 


Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Rob K
09 November 2022 18:12:17
12Z pulls the rug swiftly, blowing away any Scandi heights in favour of a much flatter pattern with HP to the south. WIO! 😉
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Taylor1740
09 November 2022 19:18:15

12Z pulls the rug swiftly, blowing away any Scandi heights in favour of a much flatter pattern with HP to the south. WIO! ;-)

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Winter can't be over as it won't start in the first place 😂


NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Heavy Weather 2013
09 November 2022 19:20:51
Nice to have a whiff of something….

Nothing more to be said. I will not be lead up the garden path…yet
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Osprey
09 November 2022 19:21:37


 


Winter can't be over as it won't start in the first place 😂


Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 


You could simulate winter... Empty the freezer and jump in it!  


Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
doctormog
09 November 2022 19:22:44
Not much change overall with the very mild weather in the next couple of days followed by a gradual trend towards average for the second half of the month.
squish
09 November 2022 20:20:31
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2022110912/ECH1-168.GIF?09-0 

I remember the days when the +168 ECMF was the holy grail .

Interesting ….
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Brian Gaze
09 November 2022 20:59:32


https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2022110912/ECH1-168.GIF?09-0


I remember the days when the +168 ECMF was the holy grail .



Interesting ….

Originally Posted by: squish 


Never really understood why. ECM is the best, but the differences between the big global models are small. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Brian Gaze
09 November 2022 21:03:00

MOGREPS-G looks quite mixed at 168 but nothing really cold getting in.



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

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