WX temps - W Europe still all above seasonal norm notably Scandinavia which though cold is well above. For week 2 WX has reinstated the incursion of cold air from Siberia, this time heading more SE-ly, towards the Black Sea; W Europe a modest cooling. This weekend's unusually mild weather forecast by other sources not really showing up - does it just not last long enough? Rain on Atlantic from Britain down through France in week 1 with dry area in Ukraine, then in week 2 retreating to Atlantic fringes and dry area extending W-wards to Alps.
GFS Op - LPs at first moving past NW Britain but by Sat 12th HP established 1035mb Germany and extensive enough to cover Britain; winds going round to S as HP shrinks E-wards and Small but deep LP arrives S Ireland 980mb Tue 15th. LP on Atlantic near NW Scotland then the major influence for the rest of that week (but not as prevalent as yesterday) though the HP never gives up and by Sun 20th is back over Germany. From there it expands slowly becoming intense 1050mb Norway Fri 25th with broad ridge covering Britain.
ECM - pattern like GFS but LP 15th is further to the SW, and later that week LP is closer to W Britain. End of run is Sat 19th, too oon to confirm the resurgence of HP but looks less promising than om GFS.
GEFS - A (very) mild and dry (SE) or less wet (NW) spell to Mon 14th after which abruptly back to normal temps and frequent rainfall, even occasional snow row figures showing in far N.
BBC - suggesting that the date record most likely to be broken at the end of this week is the overnight minimum for Scotland perhaps reaching 16C in Aberdeenshire. Other date records at risk, again other overnight records are the ones to be watching.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl