WX temp chart continues to have a respectably sized amount of cold air swashing about. The 0C isotherm lies from Scandinavia to Turkey for both week 1 and week 2, but the area to the east becomes colder within that limit. Western Europe becomes a little milder from the SW, up as far as W Germany; Britain if anything becomes a little colder. Rain or snow for Atlantic coasts and into the Med in week 1; still there in week 2 but with more emphasis on the Atlantic including a significant increase over England.
GFS Op - ridge of HP from Scandinavia reaching SW across Britain, achieving 1040 mb Norway Sat 3rd. Then a slow and rather complicated decline with the HP withdrawing to Russia, by Wed 7th shallow LP centres 1005 mb Brittany (SE-lies for UK) and 1020mb Sweden. These coalesce into a broad trough from a centre near Spain stretching NE to N Norway until Mon 12th. Then the LP fills and moves N to the N Sea Thu 15th with the chart suggesting it could either link to deeper LPs on the Atlantic or N Russia or both.
ECM - splits from GFS around Wed 7th with the LP centre over Bittany linking to LP N Norway and bringing in strong cold NE-lies from Thu 8th onwards, source of air N Siberia; and a much stronger Greenland block keeping Atlantic activity well away to the SW.
GEFS - mean temp and most ensemble membersa few degrees below seasonal norm through to Fri 16th - control and op playing games, the former incredibly mild in the S for a few days near 10th Dec before rejoining the cold suite; the latter warming up also in S at the end, Small amounts of pptn in various runs from Mon 5th, snow row figures around 5 in week 2 in the S/SW, around 10 in E and in Scotland
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Chichester 12m asl