theweatheroutlook

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ballamar
05 December 2022 22:33:18
Cold GFS could the Easterly get a hold
squish
05 December 2022 22:40:14
Excellent 18z GFS
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
CreweCold
05 December 2022 22:51:31
The 18z is historically brutal in terms of cold.

It may be at the extreme end of possibilities but such a scenario would set us up to record the coldest December on record.

Crewe, Cheshire
55 metres above sea level
squish
05 December 2022 23:01:14
Signs of it warming up in the outer hebridies by 21st dec 😉
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Rob K
05 December 2022 23:06:02
Barely struggles above freezing for most of the country right out into la la land. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
squish
05 December 2022 23:07:26
A classic pub run. The end would be a classic 80s set up for the SW
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
David M Porter
05 December 2022 23:10:40

GFS 18z in decent fettle tonight.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 




Wow!

Who would have thought only a few weeks ago that we would now be seeing model runs like these. 😀
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
The Beast from the East
05 December 2022 23:23:13

Wow!

Who would have thought only a few weeks ago that we would now be seeing model runs like these. 😀

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


incedible and control also good. Feel sorry for those who can’t afford heating 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Arbroath 1320
05 December 2022 23:36:46

The 18z is historically brutal in terms of cold.

It may be at the extreme end of possibilities but such a scenario would set us up to record the coldest December on record.

Originally Posted by: CreweCold 



Agreed. It's a big if of course, but if that high ends up bang over us as in FI of the GFS 18z, then you'd be looking at some exceptionally low night time temperatures over snow cover. 

Not great for energy supplies or vulnerable people. 
​​
 
GGTTH
Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
05 December 2022 23:37:59
I am driving to the snow starved French Alps (which had little in the way pf precipitation so far) on the 17th and if that comes off it will be a long trip through France. Unfortunately easterly would bring more snowfall to the Austrian side
Kingston Upon Thames
tallyho_83
05 December 2022 23:43:17
Upgrade by CFSV2 monthly - showing below average temperatures for majoirty of N Europe including parts of the UK now:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/euT2mMonInd1.gif 

UserPostedImage 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Zubzero
05 December 2022 23:46:03
Imby snow wise the up coming cold spell is very poor, but it's nice for it to be decently cold in Winter for once. Some places prone to the north or east flow will hit the jackpot. As will other parts in the west when the Atlantic trys to make inroads. 

GFS showing a streamer on Saturday for Linconshire South Yorkshire and parts of the Midlands for example 
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/precipitations-hd/114h.htm 
 
fairweather
06 December 2022 00:41:03

Rain to the South of London? Surely not the M4 boundry again as I am on the wrong side of it.

Originally Posted by: Sasa 


It always puzzles me why that is. I wonder what causes this common geophysical boundary? It sure as hell isn't the M4. That does tend to follow the Thames so most of the higher ground starts north of that, largely the Cotswolds and then East to the Chilterns?
S.Essex, 42m ASL
some faraway beach
06 December 2022 00:41:50
Pleasing to see the diminishing number of 'breakdown' solutions in the 18z ensemble compared to the 12z one:

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&ville=Londres 

And the beginning of a clustering around the magical minus ten mark at the end. That definitely wasn't there on the 12z.
2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
fairweather
06 December 2022 00:49:00
I tend to look mostly at the GFS 850hPa ensembles. Rarely in the last decade have I seen a graph with such tight agreement for 7 consecutive days of -6/7 C during any cold spell. There are usually minor dips up and down. A thing to behold.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
White Meadows
06 December 2022 04:49:18
Lovely channel low on 00z for 16-17th
Cripes, that is a bitter run. The suite clusters at -8 now?!
Heavy Weather 2013
06 December 2022 05:35:37
The GFS 0z is a superb run. Lots on offer for everyone, goes a bit southerly right at the end but who cares. The ensembles are a sight to behold. 
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
marco 79
06 December 2022 06:31:05
Gefs holding great this morning, looking at a consistent -7 to -9c 850s here. Has anyone got any info on temperature ranges yearly? 2022 could breach 100f between our 40c in July and this upcoming spell if conditions are prime with clear nights
Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
doctormog
06 December 2022 06:45:18
The general colder than average theme continues in this morning's output. Still messy in terms of detail and increasing uncertainty in the medium to longer term. This early in the season with many of these synoptics cold and wet in places may be as likely as cold and snowy (here included).
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
CreweCold
06 December 2022 06:59:59
That 0z ECM run is absolutely brutal from D8. Perishing E'ly wind and heavy snowfall for S UK. Some places would be digging themselves out.

Crewe, Cheshire
55 metres above sea level
nsrobins
06 December 2022 07:01:15
GEFS clusters around -7 until the 15th - coldest set yet.
Also the EC pulls a rabbit from the hat on this particular solution with an old-school screaming easterly from 216. The entertainment continues.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Whether Idle
06 December 2022 07:03:24
ECM with a fantasy run for parts of the south. Enjoy the output while it lasts. 😉
Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Surrey John
06 December 2022 07:05:27
Looking more consistent for extended cold

Although bit of a long way out, so not trusting the reliability yet, showing fair amount of snow fow Cotswolds and Wales around 14th or 15th.   Not sure analysing detail at 9 days out is sensible but must be interference from a low or trough from Atlantic hitting the cold air pool.

 
Bradford on Avon, Wiltshire
35m ASL
doctormog
06 December 2022 07:11:25
I'm still to be convinced that temperatures will drop to below -20°C at the end of tomorrow night in NW Scotland: https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ukguk/00_53_2m_min_temp.png 

The BBC TV forecasts suggest minima down to -6°C. I suspect the reality may be somewhere in between.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 

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