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nsrobins
06 December 2022 12:13:37

Agree Rob, we either get an Easterly, or the LP makes inroads to either Dartmoor, the Cairngorms or somewhere inbetween, and some lucky folk get a right dump of snow.

Also, look at the Met warning for Wales and the West Midlands, features will pop up for sure.

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 


The West Midlands WW covers an area modelled by UKV to receive increasingly wintry showers during Thursday. Not all output picks it up but to be fair even a light shower on freezing surfaces causes problems.

As for the extended, yes there's more scatter post Day 10 but this is the NWP trying its best to discern detail from a greater than normal spread of starting conditions so a huge variety of solutions are possible in a set-up where 50 miles can mean the difference between blizzards and cold rain.
My advice is to enjoy the next six days and see what the atmosphere conjures up because the one thing you can be certain of is nothing is certain!
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Saint Snow
06 December 2022 12:16:18

Dry and cold is incredibly boring. Mild, wet and windy has a lot more interest

Originally Posted by: moomin75 




I'm happy with cold and boring - especially if it's one of those misty & cloudy cold days in deepest winter where it barely gets properly light.

But, like RobK says, especially-especially if those conditions with snow underfoot.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Matty H
06 December 2022 12:17:52

Have people been looking at different charts from me? A Channel low with a foot of snow across the south (as shown on the 00Z GFS and not too dissimlar on the ECM) is not "bone dry" in my book. Totally mystified by some of the comments on here.... except I'm not really because every single snowy spell in the 20-odd years I have been posting here has been preceded by people saying how it will be bone dry.

If this is "bone dry" then I will take as many bone dry winter charts as you are offering.
UserPostedImage

(And yes I know the 6Z has it a bit further south and the snow hits France instead)

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



And miles outside of the timescales that I mentioned in my post

thats light years away in forecasting terms as you know. In the reliable it looks dry for most
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
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+1
Rob K
06 December 2022 12:19:23

Dry and cold is incredibly boring. Mild, wet and windy has a lot more interest, and has the added bonus of keeping heating bills down.​​​​​​​If it going to be cold, it needs to have some interest by way of snow.​​​​​​​I am sure many people think the same.     

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


I like winter to feel like winter. Crisp biting days with clear blue skies, hoar frost sprakling in the Christmas lights... bring it on. We can have rain, wind, temperatures in the teens and a sky that looks like a pile of wet washing in any of the other nine months of the year, so let's have proper winter weather in winter!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+1
idj20
06 December 2022 12:20:20
Knife edge stuff with regards to wintry weather, especially for my south coast location. Will the -8 C to -10 C hpa be cold enough for decent snowfalls to lower levels rather than just confined to high ground like most often the case with our cold spells. I guess other factors will come into play come the moment and it is quite early in the season with the relatively mild SSTs anyway.
Folkestone Harbour. 
Rob K
06 December 2022 12:23:56

And miles outside of the timescales that I mentioned in my post

thats light years away in forecasting terms as you know. In the reliable it looks dry for most

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



Looing over the next 96 hours there's plety of accumulated precipitation around on the high-res models especially in the west. Not huge amounts but plenty of people could well have had a dusting of snow by the end of the week.

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm-eur/runs/2022120606/nmm-26-96-0.png?06-11 

https://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege/runs/2022120606/arpegeuk-25-96-0.png?06-12 

https://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2022120606/iconeu_uk1-25-96-0.png?06-10 

 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Ally Pally Snowman
06 December 2022 12:29:22
We get this every cold spell . Models are awful at picking up snow beyond about 2 days. The charts dont look typically dry to me. But snow is rare these days especially in the South so we always need a bit of luck.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Essan
06 December 2022 12:33:06

Dry and cold is incredibly boring. ​​​​​​​Mild, wet and windy has a lot more interest, and has the added bonus of keeping heating bills down.​​​​​​​If it going to be cold, it needs to have some interest by way of snow.​​​​​​​I am sure many people think the same.     

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



You're obviously not a photographer (or anyone else who enjoys nature)

Gin clear skies,  myriad star fields at night, deep frosts coating the trees - my favourite weather and I'd happily have that every day of the year and never see a snowflake again  (especially since, here at least, 99 times out of 100 if we get a a covering of slushy snow, the skies remain dull and grey until it's all melted).  

Also looks like a chance of some freezing fog to really coat the trees in rime 👍
 
Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
+2
Downpour
06 December 2022 12:36:32

I don't really get the idea that dry equals a none event. 

As a weather enthusiast, one of the weather 'types' that I seem to love and miss in equal measure is clear, cool, crisp winter days. 

If this upcoming period is simply cold then I will always take that in December over endless days of wind and rain and temps of 10-12c.

Originally Posted by: wallaw 



Oh I agree. Glorious day today in London – beautuful crisp winter sunshine.

But hardly an 'event'.
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Rob K
06 December 2022 12:41:10

Oh I agree. Glorious day today in London – beautuful crisp winter sunshine.

But hardly an 'event'.

Originally Posted by: Downpour 


Very grey here and I am not very far away. I can see blue sky to the west and the east!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gusty
06 December 2022 12:48:36

Knife edge stuff with regards to wintry weather, especially for my south coast location. Will the -8 C to -10 C hpa be cold enough for decent snowfalls to lower levels rather than just confined to high ground like most often the case with our cold spells. I guess other factors will come into play come the moment and it is quite early in the season with the relatively mild SSTs anyway.

Originally Posted by: idj20 



I think you've answered your own question there Ian 🙂
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
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fairweather
06 December 2022 12:48:38

Have people been looking at different charts from me? A Channel low with a foot of snow across the south (as shown on the 00Z GFS and not too dissimlar on the ECM) is not "bone dry" in my book. Totally mystified by some of the comments on here.... except I'm not really because every single snowy spell in the 20-odd years I have been posting here has been preceded by people saying how it will be bone dry.

If this is "bone dry" then I will take as many bone dry winter charts as you are offering.
UserPostedImage

(And yes I know the 6Z has it a bit further south and the snow hits France instead)

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Don't worry Rob, it's ust a pessimist vs optimist thing. Like you always see the "foot of snow in the south" .😄
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Brian Gaze
06 December 2022 13:00:41
Big shift on the GEFS 06z (at least in the south) from 13/12 with a lot of milder runs now in the mix. Not sure I can recall should a pronounced change on the graphs.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
ballamar
06 December 2022 13:17:33

Big shift on the GEFS 06z (at least in the south) from 13/12 with a lot of milder runs now in the mix. Not sure I can recall should a pronounced change on the graphs.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



there have been plenty of flips in the past, the ENS are just as fallible as a single chart. If there is a new pulse in the jet then all the runs have to react. The extension of any cold is going to be fallible beyond 12th Dec, but still a chance it can continue
Gandalf The White
06 December 2022 13:26:28

there have been plenty of flips in the past, the ENS are just as fallible as a single chart. If there is a new pulse in the jet then all the runs have to react. The extension of any cold is going to be fallible beyond 12th Dec, but still a chance it can continue

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



Exactly so.  Although solid support from the ensemble suite is helpful, as is cross-model agreement, there's always the chance of something subtle and unexpected changing in the atmosphere and the ramifications of that change throwing up different evolutions.

In this case the slight flip is much less evident the further north you go

 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Russwirral
06 December 2022 13:35:44


UKV is rolling out and looks to be an upgrade on the previous run for Snow for Western England and North Wales on Thursday.

 

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Brian Gaze
06 December 2022 13:46:10
MOGREPS 06z looks to have gone in the opposite direction to GEFS.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Rob K
06 December 2022 14:08:37

Big shift on the GEFS 06z (at least in the south) from 13/12 with a lot of milder runs now in the mix. Not sure I can recall should a pronounced change on the graphs.


UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



And yet by the end of the run the mean is actually lower than on the 00Z. There are more mild runs early on but equally there are more runs keeping it cold right to the end. 

I wonder when this will finally get resolved. Could be a 72 hour job!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
06 December 2022 14:16:09
I notice the new iPhone weather app shows precipitation amounts right out to 10 days. What I can't work out is how it gives the totals. It says "54mm of wintry mix" for next Wednesday which I assume means 5cm of slushy snow, rather than 54mm rainfall equivalent!

Even for places like the Alps where it is well below zero it still uses the term "wintry mix" rather than snow. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Saint Snow
06 December 2022 15:02:30

And yet by the end of the run the mean is actually lower than on the 00Z. There are more mild runs early on but equally there are more runs keeping it cold right to the end. 

I wonder when this will finally get resolved. Could be a 72 hour job!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 




Was going to make a similar point myself. Almost all the runs that show a rise in 850's then return to sub-0c a few days later (many/most down to the -5 region). If you look at the Ens for a bit further north (like Liverpool or Manchester), the effect is more pronounced (albeit with a lower initial rise).

All it suggests is uncertainty about the track of the low and how far north it gets, before moving away and pulling in colder air again behind it.

It's hardly a 'pattern reset' to zonality.

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Hungry Tiger
06 December 2022 15:04:41
I've taken the view - I might be wrong that this cold spell will end December 16th - But recommence about the end of the first week in January.
 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


dagspot
06 December 2022 15:15:24
that is very specific..  and based on? 
Neilston 600ft ASL
Russwirral
06 December 2022 15:19:54
Icon seems to be making more of the thursday event from the outset.

UKV is too...

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Rob K
06 December 2022 15:21:03

that is very specific..  and based on? 

Originally Posted by: dagspot 


I tend to use the tabular format of the GEFS which shows 2m temperatures as a good visual guide to what to expect.

For my location see here 

I don't see any evidence of a big change on December 16. Taking the median max temperature, there is a slight warm-up around the 17th and 18th but then it actually turns colder again.

From that table I would say the most likely date for a change would be the 13th or 14th - that's when there starts to be a significant chance of properly mild conditions.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Saint Snow
06 December 2022 15:21:38

I've taken the view - I might be wrong that this cold spell will end December 16th - But recommence about the end of the first week in January.
 

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 



That would be devastating as I really want this to last through Xmas week.

We've got a table booked at a country pub (with real fires) for Xmas Eve and I'd love it to be snowy (last time we had snow lying on Xmas Eve was Dec 2010, and the snow on the beer garden tables was about 20cm deep - was beautiful). We've also not got any family do's on Boxing Day so hve pencilled in a big walk with the dog. Again, in snow would be superb - but even if just crisp and frosty would be fine.



 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan

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