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Brian Gaze
17 January 2023 08:26:38
Looks very non-descript to me at this stage. We could end up with an early taste of spring, a wintry blast or something quite bland. I know which my money is on at the moment.

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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Gandalf The White
17 January 2023 08:36:03
I’ll preface this by saying the stratosphere isn’t an area where I have much knowledge.

The 00z GFS Op shows several bursts of warming above the Russian Arctic, east of Scandinavia, culminating in a 40c warming over 36-48 hours at 10hPa.  The forecast wind chart at that level shows a broad swathe of the atmosphere will see a reversal from Scandinavia, driving strongly SSW through the Greenland/Iceland and on across North America.

The warming is supported by the ensemble mean, but in a diluted form.

What this might mean in the troposphere is another matter, but it’s certainly noteworthy, I think.
 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


nsrobins
17 January 2023 09:51:56

I’ll preface this by saying the stratosphere isn’t an area where I have much knowledge.

The 00z GFS Op shows several bursts of warming above the Russian Arctic, east of Scandinavia, culminating in a 40c warming over 36-48 hours at 10hPa.  The forecast wind chart at that level shows a broad swathe of the atmosphere will see a reversal from Scandinavia, driving strongly SSW through the Greenland/Iceland and on across North America.

The warming is supported by the ensemble mean, but in a diluted form.

What this might mean in the troposphere is another matter, but it’s certainly noteworthy, I think.
 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



To clarify it was me who mentioned the 'guff and bluster' about SSWs and the potential effects. I was not referring to anyone on this forum, rather the general ill-informed chit chat that occurs on Twatter and FB who see a significant warming at 10hPa and conclude we will get BFTE2 in a weeks time. Like many on these forums I am always learning and there is plenty of information in the forums and generally to help that process and a little application goes a long way. I am no expert but a SSW is a technical parameter (of which a warming at 10hPa is an element not the whole), the effects of which (longevity, TPV displacement or split) vary from zero influence on the surface patterns to big changes in pattern but how long that takes (down-welling etc), where it occurs, how long it lasts, etc are all things for the models to resolve and no model will get it right.
No one should feel hesitant about expressing a view on SSWs, or anything elese for that matter (this is after all model discusion not 'model in-depth analysis by experts' ;)), but in doing so (as Peter did above) at least acknowledge the opinion might not be scientifically relevant.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
+2
ballamar
17 January 2023 09:56:09
Wintriness in the South East on Saturday?
idj20
17 January 2023 10:18:18

I’ll preface this by saying the stratosphere isn’t an area where I have much knowledge.

The 00z GFS Op shows several bursts of warming above the Russian Arctic, east of Scandinavia, culminating in a 40c warming over 36-48 hours at 10hPa.  The forecast wind chart at that level shows a broad swathe of the atmosphere will see a reversal from Scandinavia, driving strongly SSW through the Greenland/Iceland and on across North America.

The warming is supported by the ensemble mean, but in a diluted form.

What this might mean in the troposphere is another matter, but it’s certainly noteworthy, I think.
 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



Exactly that, whether it is not a SSW or it is, the stratsopheric profile in the outputs is certainly looking different to the norm. What the end result will be is pretty much anyone's guess but I do think confidence of this February being a much less mobile month is high. 
Folkestone Harbour. 
Rob K
17 January 2023 10:18:27

Wintriness in the South East on Saturday?

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Certainly seems to be edging closer and closer to an easterly in the south. Nothing to scare the horses though.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gandalf The White
17 January 2023 10:54:29

To clarify it was me who mentioned the 'guff and bluster' about SSWs and the potential effects. I was not referring to anyone on this forum, rather the general ill-informed chit chat that occurs on Twatter and FB who see a significant warming at 10hPa and conclude we will get BFTE2 in a weeks time. Like many on these forums I am always learning and there is plenty of information in the forums and generally to help that process and a little application goes a long way. I am no expert but a SSW is a technical parameter (of which a warming at 10hPa is an element not the whole), the effects of which (longevity, TPV displacement or split) vary from zero influence on the surface patterns to big changes in pattern but how long that takes (down-welling etc), where it occurs, how long it lasts, etc are all things for the models to resolve and no model will get it right.
No one should feel hesitant about expressing a view on SSWs, or anything elese for that matter (this is after all model discusion not 'model in-depth analysis by experts' ;)), but in doing so (as Peter did above) at least acknowledge the opinion might not be scientifically relevant.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Thanks for the typically eloquent post, Neil.  My caveat wasn’t in response to your gentle criticism of the commentary about SSWs, more a case of flagging my limited knowledge and managing expectations.

From my limited understanding, SSWs are actually not that rare; what is rare is that warming translating into something significant down towards the surface.  Given all the uncertainties, ie where, when, and what (impact), there are plenty of reasons to do little more than note that the likelihood of some disruption to the normal weather patterns is perhaps higher than usual.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


idj20
17 January 2023 11:24:52
Seeing some easterly type set ups in the medium range outputs, but the same old story of the 850s being too diluted in terms of cold, even over the near continent. Still, at least we get to have a well deserved extended spell of dry and settled weather with some seasonal frost and fog anyway and hope GFS's trending with the idea of the Atlantic stuff trying to come crashing back in by the last few days of January doesn't come off.
Folkestone Harbour. 
Saint Snow
17 January 2023 11:29:07
MO looking fairly enticing at the moment. Both GFS and ECM have that high pressure going on quite the ramble, although GEM less keen (keeps it in a position that would be great in summer, but a bit nondescript conditions for winter.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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nsrobins
17 January 2023 11:45:07
The GEFS out to 204 so far and there are a number of easterly options, some weak drifts and some more potent and colder. A range of options but most paint a dry but cool/cold picture with teh chanc eof soemthing mor esubstantial down the line.
It's a long way from the touted rampant westrly regime some of the extended range models were going for just last week.
I think the first section of the UKM text forecast has got it about right but I wouldn;t be surpiorswed to see more emphasis on the chance of cold or even wintry conditions developing by the middle of next week.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
fairweather
17 January 2023 11:48:58
Not a particularly scientific statement but the air seems colder this year in these short cold snaps for similar synopses. December and last night have produced some very cold nights by South East standards and I wouldn't rule out another ice day. Quite rare this decade.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
+3
Ally Pally Snowman
17 January 2023 12:24:42
GEFS definitely seem to  be picking up a colder easterly signal now.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=gfs&var=2&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=1 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
dagspot
17 January 2023 12:45:56
Probably now out of date, but a good model summary video with odds and permutations of each with Alex Deakin on Met Office YouTube (especially for novices like myself). 
https://youtu.be/_hyxDsgY1d0 
Neilston 600ft ASL
overland
17 January 2023 13:11:15

Not a particularly scientific statement but the air seems colder this year in these short cold snaps for similar synopses. December and last night have produced some very cold nights by South East standards and I wouldn't rule out another ice day. Quite rare this decade.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



I was thinking the same for here as we haven't had this many hard frosts for several years. One of the benefits of living near the sea is that plants which aren't hardy often survive through winter, but many of them have been badly damaged by December's cold spell and last night it dropped to -3C with more to come. For whatever reason the synoptics this year are producing colder nights then many previous years.
Mumbles, Swansea. 80m asl
+1
John p
17 January 2023 13:15:07

Not a particularly scientific statement but the air seems colder this year in these short cold snaps for similar synopses. December and last night have produced some very cold nights by South East standards and I wouldn't rule out another ice day. Quite rare this decade.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



Agreed , was about to post the same. Second time this winter we’ve had (on the face of it) bog standard northerlies, which result in almost instant ice days, very cold nights etc. 
 
Camberley, Surrey
+2
jhall
17 January 2023 16:29:45

Not a particularly scientific statement but the air seems colder this year in these short cold snaps for similar synopses. December and last night have produced some very cold nights by South East standards and I wouldn't rule out another ice day. Quite rare this decade.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



I've noticed that too, with both maximum and minima being rather lower than I would have expected. I don't have any explanation for it.
Cranleigh, Surrey
Rob K
17 January 2023 17:26:16
Models certainly seem to have twigged that there won't be a quick return to mild westerlies. My phone app now has temps going no higher than 5C for the next 10 days.

GEM 12Z looks pretty chilly by T240, even though the main easterly shot is too far south for the UK.
UKMO 12Z also looks closer to a proper easterly than the GFS at the same timeframe.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+1
haghir22
17 January 2023 17:32:53
I suspect the pub runs tonight might well tease us accordingly......and they just might be on to something more substantial. It's a hunch, nothing more and certainly not an educated one. Fingers crossed.
YNWA
+1
ballamar
17 January 2023 20:08:50
Hoping the high can align and put Europe in the freezer to begin with, retrogression to Greenland also looks possible but we have seen how that can go wrong! Need some luck 
+1
MStewart
17 January 2023 21:32:39
Certainly good news that a sustained cooler period, at least at ground level, is on the cards in the medium term with high pressure lolling around close to the UK maintaining a quiet spell of cool weather.

I’ve noticed in the longer range that gfs and ecm control runs both drift the lolling high slightly more to the north west of the uk allowing arctic air into Eastern Europe bringing proper cold air there. Now to tap into that.

that’s a long way off but stranger things have happened.

Reminds me of mid January 1991 with another lolling about high pressure just about maintaining cool air for a sustained period, particularly in the south east despite many forecasts bringing in mild air to all parts at the time.

That led to a slight repositioning of the lolling about high and Friday 8th February, a widespread snow event and the deepest snow I’ve ever seen here. Stranger things do happen, sometimes 😁

 
Mark
Twickenham
12m ASL
+1
polarwind
17 January 2023 21:53:21

I've noticed that too, with both maximum and minima being rather lower than I would have expected. I don't have any explanation for it.

Originally Posted by: jhall 



Interesting.
In the late 70's and 80's temperatures were often trending warmer than forecast. - (than expected).
"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
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Dave,Derby
Downpour
17 January 2023 22:52:33

Not a particularly scientific statement but the air seems colder this year in these short cold snaps for similar synopses. December and last night have produced some very cold nights by South East standards and I wouldn't rule out another ice day. Quite rare this decade.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



Indeee Dave. Our region has arguably been the frontrunner in terms of wintriness within England this season. The snowy week was truly epic here but I’ll admit I’m finding this latest round of frigid air somewhat jarring. Roll on spring! 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Hippydave
18 January 2023 07:32:40
Not a desparately exciting output at the moment but as has seemed to be the case for a while inter-run consistency is good:-

Cold uppers hanging on until Friday, with a toppling ridge of HP nudging in and killing off most of what showers have been about.

HP ends up somewhere to our East or South East, with some rain for the North slowly pushing southwards and a new HP cell moves in from the West and sits somewhere around the UK. 

Rainfall after that is mininimal and limited to coastal fringes, biased towards the North West but even here it's essentially dry.

The exact positioning of the HP will determine what the weather on the ground is like but at the moment it's looking generally chilly to average, maybe a couple of mild days ahead of the second HP cell building in. 

The ens suggest there's still a chance colder uppers get dragged in depending on positioning of the various HP cells but there's no real signs of a classic easterly or northerly, just some benign and dry stuff. As is usual with HP we may well get some fog and areas closest to the HP centre are likely to cool down noticeably so could end up cold for some. All in all more likely to be of interest to see how long a HP spell we can get, given that's been uncommon over recent years. 

 
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
+1
Jiries
18 January 2023 07:59:28

Not a desparately exciting output at the moment but as has seemed to be the case for a while inter-run consistency is good:-

Cold uppers hanging on until Friday, with a toppling ridge of HP nudging in and killing off most of what showers have been about.

HP ends up somewhere to our East or South East, with some rain for the North slowly pushing southwards and a new HP cell moves in from the West and sits somewhere around the UK. 

Rainfall after that is mininimal and limited to coastal fringes, biased towards the North West but even here it's essentially dry.

The exact positioning of the HP will determine what the weather on the ground is like but at the moment it's looking generally chilly to average, maybe a couple of mild days ahead of the second HP cell building in. 

The ens suggest there's still a chance colder uppers get dragged in depending on positioning of the various HP cells but there's no real signs of a classic easterly or northerly, just some benign and dry stuff. As is usual with HP we may well get some fog and areas closest to the HP centre are likely to cool down noticeably so could end up cold for some. All in all more likely to be of interest to see how long a HP spell we can get, given that's been uncommon over recent years. 

 

Originally Posted by: Hippydave 


HP are very boring and does no good for UK benefits while HP over other countries does well and useable.  Hope it wont come to fruition as it bring nasty fog, cold and damp weather.  I notice the temps for this week cold spell of 2 to 3C had changed overnight to 5 to 6C? Look like tad below average not chilly cold. 
ballamar
18 January 2023 08:03:58
Looks like we could be heading into a UK stubborn high with potentially cloud trapped under it. Which would mean cool days chilly nights and not much else, would suit some people who call it useable weather a term for boring days!

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