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Lionel Hutz
24 January 2023 10:39:26

Lots of purple on these.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Lots of purple there may be, but it's not near us for the most part. While not a majority, the largest portion of them show light South-Westerlies.

Mind you, the OP 
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=dublin&charthour=006&chartname=ps_500hpa&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM) 

does hold out a little bit of hope with a few short lived coldish blasts.
Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



ballamar
24 January 2023 14:32:00
Getting to that time of year when looking for a decent countrywide cold spell a bit of disruption to the jet is needed. Some of the low pressure modelled is huge and will help loop the jet over us. Not sure if any significant warming is forecast to give any hope.
ballamar
24 January 2023 16:28:02
Might be nothing but small blob of orange over the pole on this run at 198h
idj20
24 January 2023 18:38:50

That was more focused over Kent - it went below -14C here, and as low as -17C over the higher parts of the Isle.

Brogdale, a few miles away on the mainland, was the coldest place in the UK that winter, at -14.2C. (Of course, in 2003 it was the hottest place in the UK!)

What was interesting about that BFTE cold spell was how well forecast it was by UKV, the Met Office model. I remember the night before seeing something like -11C forecast for the morning and just laughing out loud: it hadn't even been an especially cold day, several degrees above freezing. Those sort of night time temperatures here hadn't been seen since 1987, and that was much colder air aloft. That said, 850s and thicknesses were at record lows for the end of Feb.
When I got up in the morning it was -8C and the forecast was -13. Maybe, just maybe, I thought, and yes - it actually happened. I made it to work that day (through the snow, didn't go above 20mph even on the dual carriageway), found it closed, went to Tesco (where I was gawped at!), drove home, turned on the news and read about the chaos and how nobody could go anywhere. Whoops!
Here's my station on that day:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/ILEYSDOW1/graph/2018-02-28/2018-02-28/daily 

No chance of anything so exciting any time soon, of course, it seems like another world. It just goes to show though that you can't write off winter right until the end!

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Yet that one completely bypassed us here at Folkestone, had a bit of freezing drizzle and very slight powder snow in the morning before turned brighter with spring-like sunshine in the afternoon. That was the most frustrating spell of wintry weather in all my years of being into meteorology.

Anyway, back to the here and now, glad to see the GFS trying to moderate it’s idea of an unsettled zonal set up in the first week of February. More likely to be just maritime-like mild instead of cold, wet and stormy, I can live with that. Dunno what the ECM is coming up with as that is late in updating this evening.
Folkestone Harbour. 
Zubzero
24 January 2023 19:59:42
Ouch

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0   

Hope the purple monster of doom runs out of steam before it gobbles up the rest of winter, giving us a last chance saloon shot at a cold ending. 
Zubzero
24 January 2023 20:29:56
Sorry for a bit off topic. 

But in regard to cold weather payments ( Has to average 0 or below for a 7 day period) the stations they use are crazy. For example Andrewsfield is used for Cambridge. Its 45 miles away and has been about 3C higher on average then Cambridge this week. 

I'm sure there are many other stupid station locations chosen. Seems a bizarre system. 
Karl Guille
25 January 2023 00:13:17
I'll take the Pub Run Control please! 
https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2023012418/gens-0-0-336.png 
 
St. Sampson
Guernsey
Zubzero
25 January 2023 00:23:58

I'll take the Pub Run Control please! 
https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2023012418/gens-0-0-336.png 
 

Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 



Apart from that the pub run gefs offer slim pickings 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=19&ech=360&mode=0&carte=0&ext=0   😱 
tallyho_83
25 January 2023 00:56:29
I find it ironic how the warming of the stratosphere which is currently taking place over Siberia and soon over the Arctic regions is actually strengthening the zonal winds at 10hpa after a brief deceleration the PV get stronger by the look of things despite a secondary stratospheric warming!

Just goes to show that a stratospheric warming doesn't mean more blocking at high latitudes. A week ago many models were really showing a crash in zonal winds a a few going into reverse at 10hpa.

Also another thing learn't - The South west - esp Cornwall has actually seen accumulating snow twice if not 3 times this winter 10th 11th, 12/13th December and 16th -17th January - the snow Cornwall had last week was actually the most Cornwall has seen since the BFTE in March 2018, with some parts esp Bobmin received over 10cm of snow. - This is all without a SSW and with a very cold stratosphere too. Uppers were low but not excessively low -6c to -6.5C's  @ 850hpa! - Just saying, backing up my point that point we do not need a SSW to get snow.
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
25 January 2023 08:02:22
WX charts - they may be useful as a quick summary for the next two weeks but they flip day to day so may be of limited value in the end. The current week 1 is indeed much the same as yesterday with freezing conditions into C Europe and generally cold elsewhere. Week 2, forecast yesterday to continue and augment this, has flipped with most of W Europe mild, still freezing in mountain areas, but most of the really cold stuff has gone off to Turkey. Pptn on the Atlantic, increasingly affecting NW Britain, and in the Med but that decreasing; rather dry elsewhere.

GFs Op - HP up to 1040mb centred to W or SW of Britain for the rest of January with W/NW winds (a cold plunge Wed 1st over Scandinavia may just catch the E Coast); then the centre moves to Switzerland 1040mb by Sat 4th and stays there with SW-lies for Britain, gales over Scotland

ECM - much the same up to end of January, then the HP moves to Spain, not Switzerland, and lp is closer to the N of Britain so predicting strong W-lies for all

GEFS - mean temp not far from seasonal norm throughout; consistent but with a bit of  a dip Thu 2nd in the S however up and down all the time in the N, after which agreement breaks down, a wide spread by the end and in particular op (mild) and control (cold) going their own ways. Rain in most runs from Fri 3rd (Wed 1st in NW), more than shown yesterday, especially heavy in NW, relatively little in NE. Snow likely in the Highlands in February, less likely in other parts of the N, minimal chance for the S
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
Hippydave
25 January 2023 08:36:24
Fairly average looking fare for the forseeable on the GFS and ECM. GFS op goes mild later (850 level anyway) but isn't well supported by that point with the majority going for a more up/down temp profile as is typical in an unsettled flow. 

Little or no interesting weather IMBY but some transient cold sectors may bring some wintry weather to the North at times, if you like your cold fleeting and replaced by rainy stuff the next day!

It'd be interesting to hear from thems what keep an eye on teleconnections to see if there's any glimmers of (cold) hope in the broader scale drivers of our weather but whilst I've just about got the enthusiasm to keep scanning the ens for signs of a change, the lengthening days are also inclining me to hope the GFS op isn't too far off and HP settles over Europe and we get some milder air drawn up and we can wander in to spring with some milder and relatively dry weather IMBY.  
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
+1
Brian Gaze
25 January 2023 08:50:16



Just goes to show that a stratospheric warming doesn't mean more blocking at high latitudes. A week ago many models were really showing a crash in zonal winds a a few going into reverse at 10hpa.

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 



IIRC it was never more than approx 25% of GEFS runs which were showing a reversal. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Jiries
25 January 2023 08:55:03

Fairly average looking fare for the forseeable on the GFS and ECM. GFS op goes mild later (850 level anyway) but isn't well supported by that point with the majority going for a more up/down temp profile as is typical in an unsettled flow. 

Little or no interesting weather IMBY but some transient cold sectors may bring some wintry weather to the North at times, if you like your cold fleeting and replaced by rainy stuff the next day!

It'd be interesting to hear from thems what keep an eye on teleconnections to see if there's any glimmers of (cold) hope in the broader scale drivers of our weather but whilst I've just about got the enthusiasm to keep scanning the ens for signs of a change, the lengthening days are also inclining me to hope the GFS op isn't too far off and HP settles over Europe and we get some milder air drawn up and we can wander in to spring with some milder and relatively dry weather IMBY.  

Originally Posted by: Hippydave 



Bartlett HP setup usually deliver lot of mild to hot sunny weather like 1989 are very welcome to save energy bills so rather have that than another cold spring we had recently.  Bartlett HP are best due to dry continental air over us than any other HP position that bring damp dull weather that I saw in 2021 and 2022 especially 2021 was the worst one.   Bad for ski industry thou if they want further fresh snow updates.
Jiries
25 January 2023 08:59:22

IIRC it was never more than approx 25% of GEFS runs which were showing a reversal. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Better if we can skip this SSW this year due to energy prices still too high and with Government stop helping us in April so dont want an SSW that will bring cold Spring weather in April and May. SSW was a pest for us in April and May 2021.
ballamar
25 January 2023 10:31:25
Wouldn’t take much adjustment to get some ‘faux cold’ into the SE on this run from the continent. The high might not reside as far south. Not ideal but could stil be seasonal 
icecoldstevet
25 January 2023 11:04:34
We moved from Solihull to Stratton/Bude (North Cornwall Coast) 18 months ago never really expecting to see proper wintry weather again yet we've had a couple of effective ice days, several days of snow falling even here (50m asl) and snow lying on the local beach all day.  Last Tuesday EIGHTY schools were closed in Cornwall due to heavy snow (didn't really make the news though as it wasn't in London).
Cornwall - 50 Metres Above Sea Level - 1 Mile From The Atlantic Coast
+1
nsrobins
25 January 2023 12:47:43

IIRC it was never more than approx 25% of GEFS runs which were showing a reversal. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I never understood the hype around the projected SWW (projected only by a few ensemble members to be fair). Even the BBC picked up on it yesterday on Morning Live. People need to check the data properly before making wild 'Daily Mail' type projections, especially on mainstream TV where millions of people might think they will need to cope with snowdrifts and ice in early Feb. It's OK to prepare and inform especially in the current cost of living and energy crisis but to tag this on to a forecast which is guesswork at the best is poor practice indeed.
 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
+2
overland
25 January 2023 13:58:33
To be fair, the forums seemed to be very level headed about the possibility of a SSW and its potential impact, it was the usual media outlets with their talk of "walls of snow" that were hyping it.
Mumbles, Swansea. 80m asl
+2
Taylor1740
25 January 2023 14:32:44
Looking like good old zonality will be back for February! Feels like February should be a less zonal more blocked month but last February was an Atlantic onslaught and this year it could be the same again.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
UncleAlbert
25 January 2023 15:50:05

I never understood the hype around the projected SWW (projected only by a few ensemble members to be fair). Even the BBC picked up on it yesterday on Morning Live. People need to check the data properly before making wild 'Daily Mail' type projections, especially on mainstream TV where millions of people might think they will need to cope with snowdrifts and ice in early Feb. It's OK to prepare and inform especially in the current cost of living and energy crisis but to tag this on to a forecast which is guesswork at the best is poor practice indeed.
 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



The vast majority of us on this forum have a fair idea of the weather outcomes being presented to us by the data with respect to the coming weeks.  The tabloid establishment could of course easily present the same projections that we see but choose not to, as with many news topics, if we are willing to root out the facts rather than maybe hear what we want to hear.  With regards to potential SSW, I think that many of us think in terms of backing, say for arguments sake a 4 to 1 shot, rather than a 10 to 1 shot that may be is nearer the odds for a normal February these days!
picturesareme
25 January 2023 16:13:24

I find it ironic how the warming of the stratosphere which is currently taking place over Siberia and soon over the Arctic regions is actually strengthening the zonal winds at 10hpa after a brief deceleration the PV get stronger by the look of things despite a secondary stratospheric warming!

Just goes to show that a stratospheric warming doesn't mean more blocking at high latitudes. A week ago many models were really showing a crash in zonal winds a a few going into reverse at 10hpa.

Also another thing learn't - The South west - esp Cornwall has actually seen accumulating snow twice if not 3 times this winter 10th 11th, 12/13th December and 16th -17th January - the snow Cornwall had last week was actually the most Cornwall has seen since the BFTE in March 2018, with some parts esp Bobmin received over 10cm of snow. - This is all without a SSW and with a very cold stratosphere too. Uppers were low but not excessively low -6c to -6.5C's  @ 850hpa! - Just saying, backing up my point that point we do not need a SSW to get snow.

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 



Because it is only a minor SSW rather than a major that is likely to happen in the coming days. However it's effects won't be seen for several weeks, and even then regardless as to whether it was a minor or major it wouldn't guarantee any affect to our weather. 

Met office discussion on the subject yesterday..


 
ballamar
25 January 2023 16:40:36
You can count on GFS op giving hope with a run like this!

Beast in full mode 😂
Downpour
25 January 2023 16:42:58

We moved from Solihull to Stratton/Bude (North Cornwall Coast) 18 months ago never really expecting to see proper wintry weather again yet we've had a couple of effective ice days, several days of snow falling even here (50m asl) and snow lying on the local beach all day.  Last Tuesday EIGHTY schools were closed in Cornwall due to heavy snow (didn't really make the news though as it wasn't in London).

Originally Posted by: icecoldstevet 



Not this stupid old myth again. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
+1
doctormog
25 January 2023 16:53:46

Looking like good old zonality will be back for February! Feels like February should be a less zonal more blocked month but last February was an Atlantic onslaught and this year it could be the same again.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 



It’s almost like the model output knows when people predict weeks of zonality!

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_294_1.png  
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Snow Hoper
25 January 2023 17:06:33

It’s almost like the model output knows when people predict weeks of zonality!

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_294_1.png  

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



As pretty as it looks....

Salt, large, pinch, of (rearrange accordingly)

By no means out of the realms of possibility, I'll  take as much notice of this one as I did the big mild outlier from the 00hrs.
Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


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