theweatheroutlook

Remove ads from site

fairweather
07 March 2023 23:02:30
if the 18z op run is near the middle of the pack then Scotland looks cold for the next 10 days and even further cold incursions south for a while. It is really going away as quickly as usual I don't think.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
noodle doodle
07 March 2023 23:07:11
I know it's not really model stuff, but xcweather for Edinburgh has flipped from 6c and drizzly next Monday to half a metre of snow and 0c, but it's always shown great snow for 5/6 days time for the last week.or so...

I'm just gonna roll some dice and make my own predictions 😙 
 
glenogle
07 March 2023 23:46:20
Central belt now looks set to miss out on the thurs/fri snow event, with it mostly staying south of border.
may be a chance of a dusting places as the east wind off the top of the low blows in a bit of a forth streamer? One to keep an eye on.  I think it's what the arpege is trying to show.  
UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
Caprikid62
08 March 2023 00:16:02

Central belt now looks set to miss out on the thurs/fri snow event, with it mostly staying south of border.
may be a chance of a dusting places as the east wind off the top of the low blows in a bit of a forth streamer? One to keep an eye on.  I think it's what the arpege is trying to show.  

Originally Posted by: glenogle 



Yep the output has been struggling to bring the low on Thu/Fri much above the Scottish Borders . This has happen a lot in the past in this type of situation . I guess this would be good for those further South as the colder air already established looks more like it might hang around .
Kinross, Tayside Scotland 120m ASL
Quantum
08 March 2023 02:04:08
ICON0Z seems to be much further north than the 21Z and the 18Z
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Tim A
08 March 2023 05:14:11
My thoughts on Thursday are that patience will be required. It might be Thursday night before the heavier stuff arrives and anything light during the day won't settle as it will be too warm. May also end up being a high ground event only. Time to change but the system may not end up being as disruptive as first thought. 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Crepuscular Ray
08 March 2023 07:18:08

My thoughts on Thursday are that patience will be required. It might be Thursday night before the heavier stuff arrives and anything light during the day won't settle as it will be too warm. May also end up being a high ground event only. Time to change but the system may not end up being as disruptive as first thought. 

Originally Posted by: Tim A 



I agree Tim. It seems that a narrower area will get the heaviest snow. Maybe North Wales, the North Midlands, Lancs and Yorks?
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
Crepuscular Ray
08 March 2023 07:31:56
Looking at the GFS 00z, it's still cold in the north on the 24th!

If that happens it's going to be a low March mean up here
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
doctormog
08 March 2023 07:37:34

Looking at the GFS 00z, it's still cold in the north on the 24th!

If that happens it's going to be a low March mean up here

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 



Thankfully the latter stages are very much on the colder side of the ensemble suite. Having said that the next week looks cold in northern parts on much of this morning’s output.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
08 March 2023 08:03:20
FAX continuing to show locations of fronts; lying along the S coastal counties today, looking marginal as between snow and heavy rain. The action shifts N-wards tomorrow Thu with LP 981mb Bristol and fronts wrapped round the north of it. This moves off to the E quite sharply and on Fri HP briefly appears over the N Sea, some weak-looking fronts in the SW but air beginning to move up from the S, and this covering the whole country by Sat.

WX charts week 1 cold or v cold across N Europe from Scotland to Baltic, quite mild further S; in week 2 the freezing area shrinks noticeably and Europe S of the Baltic looking average for the time of year, not as mild as week1. Pptn in week 1 is a broad band lying E-W from Britain to Baltic, shifting its orientation in Week 2 N-S Norway - Britain - W Med.

GFS Op - current LP moving E as above, after brief SW-ly another LP moves across  Britain 975mb Ireland Mon 13th, weak N-lies behind it; then a repeat with a SW-ly, LP crossing Britain 985mb Bristol Sat 18th and N-lies behind (though these promote a local LP 995mb Brittany Wed 22nd with NE-lies for a while. 

ECM similar but takes the LP Sat 18th further N, 985 mb Hebrides

GEFS - temps in S up 9th, down 11th, up 13th, down 15th, then although the mean recovers to norm this is only as a mid-point in a wide spread of ens members. Quite a lot of rain or snow week 1, still raining but not as heavy week 2. Similar up and down profile for N of England week 1 but pptn much heavier and a high chance of snow, quieter and like the S in week 2. Scotland misses the up-and-down with temps simply recovering slowly to norm by Sun 19th, some pptn at any time with chance of snow persisting esp in the Highlands.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
Hippydave
08 March 2023 10:25:30
Quite a cold GFS run so far and more in the way of cold air returning to the south too. 

Scotland looks to stay in the cold air throughout (upto T198 so far), with some frontal snowfall along with snow showers. Snow/rain boundary wanders around for England, biased towards snowier for the North and rainier for the south as you'd expect but even for the far South there's the possibility of some more snow at times.

 
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
The Beast from the East
08 March 2023 11:09:16
Yes, quite a potent northerly is setting up for next week followed by who knows what at this stage
Winter aint done yet
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
08 March 2023 11:11:43
some very cold members appearing. uppers could be colder than this week. Hopefully a block can develop to hold off the atlantic trough
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&mode=1&code=3&ext=0 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Taylor1740
08 March 2023 13:19:18
The GEFS are showing an insane spread in t850s just 24 hours away for N Yorkshire they range from just above 0c to nearly -10c just 24 hours away! Not sure what is still causing such uncertainty at such short range.

Also looking like the cold will return early next week after a brief warm up Saturday night into Sunday.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Saint Snow
08 March 2023 13:24:58
Arpege has a snowfest lasting almost 24 hours from Thursday morning for a large area covering the North Midlands/North Wales/NW England/the western two-thirds of Yorkshire/NE England. Perhaps a snow/sleet/rain mix toward western coasts/into Cheshire.


The sweet spots look like being the Peak District & North Wales, where I wouldn't be surprised to see in excess of 30cm for areas with some altitude
 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Jiries
08 March 2023 13:53:02

Arpege has a snowfest lasting almost 24 hours from Thursday morning for a large area covering the North Midlands/North Wales/NW England/the western two-thirds of Yorkshire/NE England. Perhaps a snow/sleet/rain mix toward western coasts/into Cheshire.


The sweet spots look like being the Peak District & North Wales, where I wouldn't be surprised to see in excess of 30cm for areas with some altitude
 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



Show snow fest for Nuneaton tom all day at max 1C as well and wife message me snow heavy now there while cold rain in congested heat urban area of Slough. 
Hade Edge Snowman
08 March 2023 13:53:23

Arpege has a snowfest lasting almost 24 hours from Thursday morning for a large area covering the North Midlands/North Wales/NW England/the western two-thirds of Yorkshire/NE England. Perhaps a snow/sleet/rain mix toward western coasts/into Cheshire.


The sweet spots look like being the Peak District & North Wales, where I wouldn't be surprised to see in excess of 30cm for areas with some altitude
 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


🤞
Hade Edge Snowman
West Yorkshire
1060 feet/323 metres ASL
fairweather
08 March 2023 14:04:03
Just watched the BBC weather forecast and the weather looks awful for the next few days. Like the worst of January. Mostly wet, cold and sleety. Even for Northern England it looks like they will get similar to what we've had this morning - plenty of snow on high ground but a mix of rain, sleet and non-settling snow in towns and low ground. Mind , they've only got to be a dgree or so out for that to change.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Retron
08 March 2023 14:36:23

Just watched the BBC weather forecast and the weather looks awful for the next few days. Like the worst of January. Mostly wet, cold and sleety. Even for Northern England it looks like they will get similar to what we've had this morning - plenty of snow on high ground but a mix of rain, sleet and non-settling snow in towns and low ground. Mind , they've only got to be a dgree or so out for that to change.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 


Yes indeed, a case where one degree makes a difference between a wet snow wonderland and a rainfest (with a bit of sleet).

ECM came out best IMBY (it had sleet for most of the day today), followed by the GFS (which had snow all morning, then rain) and lastly the UKV (which kept it as rain, not even sleet).

It's a real shame that the GFS handles snow so poorly, as it doesn't handle sleet (our sleet, that is, rather than the American ice pellet version). ECM has much better parameters, even differentiating between powdery snow and wet snow. The same applied to the GFS would be a very much-needed upgrade. It's a reminder, too, that as it stands GFS pops up a "snow" flag even if it's a few flakes of snow amongst the rain - woe betide anyone taking those tempting snow symbols as gospel at times like this!

 
Leysdown, north Kent
Brian Gaze
08 March 2023 15:02:53
Agree with the comments about GFS /  GEFS snow depths. Nonetheless, I've just added in GEFS snow depth postage stamps which can be viewed here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&charthour=006&chartname=ps_uksnowdepth&chartregion=uk&p=1&charttag=PS%20Snow%20depth 


UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Downpour
08 March 2023 15:07:03

Just watched the BBC weather forecast and the weather looks awful for the next few days. Like the worst of January. Mostly wet, cold and sleety. Even for Northern England it looks like they will get similar to what we've had this morning - plenty of snow on high ground but a mix of rain, sleet and non-settling snow in towns and low ground. Mind , they've only got to be a dgree or so out for that to change.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



yes, this damp, grey, wet, miserable squib was set in stone the moment the Beeb selected Darren Bett to do the lates yesterday. He has clearly been at the controls!!
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Downpour
08 March 2023 15:15:59

Yes indeed, a case where one degree makes a difference between a wet snow wonderland and a rainfest (with a bit of sleet).

ECM came out best IMBY (it had sleet for most of the day today), followed by the GFS (which had snow all morning, then rain) and lastly the UKV (which kept it as rain, not even sleet).


It's a real shame that the GFS handles snow so poorly, as it doesn't handle sleet (our sleet, that is, rather than the American ice pellet version). ECM has much better parameters, even differentiating between powdery snow and wet snow. The same applied to the GFS would be a very much-needed upgrade. It's a reminder, too, that as it stands GFS pops up a "snow" flag even if it's a few flakes of snow amongst the rain - woe betide anyone taking those tempting snow symbols as gospel at times like this!

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 



indeed this has been a disappointment for the vast majority of the UK population and indeed the proper snow is almost entirely outside the populous areas of the UK.

as an aside, a huge forecasting miss again for the BBC, who were ramping 5-10cm for large swathes of the S/E yesterday. 

they have now got both S/Eastern snowfalls this winter wrong - albeit in opposite directions (the December one called for 2-3 inches and delivered more than 6 here!)
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Hade Edge Snowman
08 March 2023 15:23:56

Arpege has a snowfest lasting almost 24 hours from Thursday morning for a large area covering the North Midlands/North Wales/NW England/the western two-thirds of Yorkshire/NE England. Perhaps a snow/sleet/rain mix toward western coasts/into Cheshire.


The sweet spots look like being the Peak District & North Wales, where I wouldn't be surprised to see in excess of 30cm for areas with some altitude
 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Snow warning now gone Amber.......
Hade Edge Snowman
West Yorkshire
1060 feet/323 metres ASL
Saint Snow
08 March 2023 15:36:32

Snow warning now gone Amber.......

Originally Posted by: Hade Edge Snowman 



Away from the higher areas, it's still yellow - but good luck! I'm travelling to Derby on Sunday, and may be tempted to take the scenic route via Buxton!!

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Hade Edge Snowman
08 March 2023 15:39:50

Away from the higher areas, it's still yellow - but good luck! I'm travelling to Derby on Sunday, and may be tempted to take the scenic route via Buxton!!

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Should be plenty high enough for some fun and games here hopefully............
Hade Edge Snowman
West Yorkshire
1060 feet/323 metres ASL

Remove ads from site

Ads