theweatheroutlook

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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
16 March 2023 08:04:36
WX charts show winter on the retreat to the northern parts of Russia and Scandinavia over the next two weeks, but still no better than average over most of Europe (maybe even a little below in France and Germany week 2) with any springlike warmth developing further E, around the Aegean and Black Sea. Rain mainly in the N of Britain and also Norway week 1; for the S and France week 2

GFS Op - for Britain and W Europe, dominated by the Atlantic; LPs Fri17th 1000mb Ireland moving NE; Thu 23rd 975mb Hebrides moving NE, Sun 26th 990mb Bristol Channel moving SE. Azores HP then comes up from the SW 1030mb Cornwall to 1005mb Shetland and very mild SW-lies (but remember that's April Fools' Day)

ECM - picks up the same LPs as GFS but takes them further S, across central Britain

GEFS - in the S, temps a little above norm to Sat 25th (good ens agreement) then mean closer to norm, dragged down notably by op & control. Dry-ish at first (a change from yesterday), quite a lot of rain around from Thu 23rd. In Scotland milder at first, cooler later, also changing over around the 25th. Rain more generally esp in the W.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
17 March 2023 07:08:39
Still very quiet in here. I guess everyone’s suffering weather fatigue from the recent snow excitement!  
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Jiries
17 March 2023 07:37:10

Still very quiet in here. I guess everyone’s suffering weather fatigue from the recent snow excitement!  

Originally Posted by: Caz 



We having Autumnal mild wasted weather type nowadays instead of spring sunshine warmth we getting what we normally get in early Autumn.  Very unheard of mild wet weather non stop in March as normally mild come with sun and colder in the rain.  Any rain now is extremely unwelcome now. Today 14C is wasted without full sunshine.  
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
17 March 2023 07:50:11
WX temp charts by comparison with yesterday show the retreat of freezing weather to be delayed; a larger area below 0C though still not extensive; the burst of warmth around the Black Sea cancelled; and Britain graded between mild-ish in the S to cool-ish in the N. Rain across Britain (less in the E week 1) and up to the Baltic; again a change from yesterday as France is damp in week 2 rather than soaked.

GFS Op - LPs moving NE over or close to Britain, winds generally NW/W/SW with alternating mild and cool as the LPs pass through. Principal centres 1000mb Sat 18th Eire, 980mb Thu 23rd NE Scotland, 995mb Wed 29th Hebrides, 985 mb Fri 31st N England.  The 'April Fool' S-lies of yesterday have been replaced by an Arctic N-ly as the last of these moves to Norway! 

ECM - similar to GFS (LP Fri 24th rather than Thu 23rd)

GEFS - mean temps declining from just above norm to just below, changeover date Sun 26th and ens members in good agreement up to that point. Less rain in the S than shown yesterday and that mostly after Thu 23rd. A bit milder relative to norm in the N at first, and rain there more or less continual.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
18 March 2023 08:01:30
WX temp charts continue with a similar limited area of freezing weather over Scandinavia and N Russia, but instead of the week 1 output where there there is a well-marked boundary to mild conditions for the rest of Europe, in week 2 the rest of Europe is somewhat colder, with the Alps freezing again , even a tiny spot of blue on the Highlands. Wet weather on the Atlantic including Britain and Norway both weeks; in week 1 an extension to the Baltic but in week 2 an extension to the Alps.

GFS Op - shallow LP drifting away NE-wards replaced by an extended and extensive E-W trough from W of Eire to the Baltic persisting to Mon 27th, lowest pressures typically 990mb. As this clears there is a brief N-ly followed by an equally brief ridge of HP 1025mb Wed 29th before a deep LP establishes near Iceland 955mb Sat 1st with SW-lies becoming stronger as time goes by. Little confidence from about 10 days on given the fluctuating outcomes shown recently.

ECM - similar, though pressures in the trough are lower, down to 970mb

GEFS - mild at first, soon reverting to norm with good agreement until Mon 27th, then for most ens members cooler trending back to norm by Mon 3rd though runs are by then considerably divergent. Some rain around now, but beginning in earnest Tue 21st and persistent thereafter, heaviest in SW. Chances of snow in the far N in w/b 27th.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Quantum
18 March 2023 08:43:53
Just confirmation bias ofc, but it does feel like cold/snowy springs are becoming the norm.  In recent years April has been much snowier than December, sometimes even January.

Are we looking at my third consecutive snowy april?
 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
18 March 2023 08:51:46

Just confirmation bias ofc, but it does feel like cold/snowy springs are becoming the norm.  In recent years April has been much snowier than December, sometimes even January.

Are we looking at my third consecutive snowy april?
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



Anecdotally, I can remember perhaps three occasions in the 50s when I cycled through heavy snow showers in the S of England or N France; and later on, in the 70s, a couple of occasions when contemporaries of my daughter had camping trips at Easter ruined by heavy snow, one in Northumberland and one in Holland. 

So a return to a pattern of yesteryear?

 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
doctormog
18 March 2023 09:31:12
I’m really not impressed with that longer term trend.

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=57.2&lon=-2.25 

UserPostedImage

Or put another way: https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gensp/run/gensprobuk-26-240.png?0

UserPostedImage 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Ally Pally Snowman
18 March 2023 10:14:48
Yes annoyingly another cold spell looks  to be developing 25th ish. Probably just nuisance value down here. Maybe more exciting further north. 
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhrens.aspx 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
AJ*
  • AJ*
  • Advanced Member
18 March 2023 10:23:13

Just confirmation bias ofc, but it does feel like cold/snowy springs are becoming the norm.  In recent years April has been much snowier than December, sometimes even January.

Are we looking at my third consecutive snowy april?
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



I can't comment on long-term trends, but I would agree that we have had (IMBY, at least)  a succession of cold Springs.  As a gardener, I've been repeatedly frustrated by inclement weather at this time of year to the extent of getting thoroughly fed up with it.  
Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.
Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl
CField
18 March 2023 11:19:20
Looking at ECM Could the south get one more big wet snow event? It really has been a miserable spring so far..
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
19 March 2023 08:16:51
WX temp charts keep the freezing weather well to the N (Iceland - N Scandinavia - N Russia, perhaps N Scotland in week 2) but whereas a steep temp gradient in week1 to the rest of Europe, which stays mild, in week 2 the cold 'leaks out' and W Europe becomes colder. Rain from the Atlantic covering Britain both weeks and extending into Europe, more to the N in week 1, further S in week 2.

GFS Op with no clear pattern until later this week when a trough establishes itself all the way from mid-Atlantic to Siberia at its most extensive Thu 23rd, slowly withdrawing E-wards and bringing in colder air on the back edge with direct N-ly by Fri 30th. A brief interlude, then a new deep LP in the Atlantic by Tue 4th.

ECM shows the trough never really clearing and new LPs forming in its wake e.g. Rockall 985mb Wed 28th with its own trough to S England. Less N-ly, more rain.

GEFS - briefly mild, temps declining to norm with good ens agreement to Sat 26th, after which anything goes (op tending to cold, control to warm, and other runs anything between. Rain persistent everywhere all the time, heaviest in SW, chances of snow in Scotland have declined since yesterday's forecast 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
The Beast from the East
19 March 2023 09:42:49
Horrific outlook. I guess we are now paying for all that dry weather in Feb
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
fairweather
19 March 2023 10:21:07

We having Autumnal mild wasted weather type nowadays instead of spring sunshine warmth we getting what we normally get in early Autumn.  Very unheard of mild wet weather non stop in March as normally mild come with sun and colder in the rain.  Any rain now is extremely unwelcome now. Today 14C is wasted without full sunshine.  

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


Not by farmers, growers and Water Companies, Jiries. After last year's record breaking drought and a dry winter they will welcome more rain before the transpiration sets in.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
+2
tierradelfuego
19 March 2023 19:14:02

Not by farmers, growers and Water Companies, Jiries. After last year's record breaking drought and a dry winter they will welcome more rain before the transpiration sets in.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



100% agree, it's like people have forgotten how much of a dire situation much of the country was in last year. Don't get me wrong, as someone who loves being outdoors gardening, trail running and fly fishing, I'd love some nice weather to be able to do that without a few layers however the bigger picture is far more important than my personal desire, it's a shame some don't get that really.

On the models, there does look to be a general rise in pressure and associated expected outcomes from that, in the last few GEFS, when we get into April. Before that we can enjoy the rain which generally looks relatively light and with mild temps.

Certainly no 20c days showing as a rule though, so nothing particularly bbq-inducing.
Bucklebury
West Berkshire Downs AONB
135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS
Rainfall collector separated at ground level
Anemometer separated above roof level
WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Weather)
+1
johncs2016
20 March 2023 06:42:13

Not by farmers, growers and Water Companies, Jiries. After last year's record breaking drought and a dry winter they will welcome more rain before the transpiration sets in.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



I am in full agreement with that.

Here in SE Scotland, we were particularly badly hit by drier than average conditions even in a few of those more recent periods whilst most places further south were getting much wetter weather.

This month then got off to an an exceptionally dry start here and at one point in time, it had looked as though this month might actually end up being one of our driest Marches on record although it has become much wetter here just recently and it now looks as though this month will actually be only our first wetter than average month of this year.

That will need to keep going for the next couple of months though if we are to avoid the situation where SEPA declares a severe water shortage situation for here later on in the year, especially once we get into the summer.

Yes, it would be nice to see some warm spring sunshine after the recent cold weather. At the same time though, I also believe that if we are going to get some really miserable weather, it is better to get that get that out of the way just now so that we can then hopefully, be able to enjoy a decent summer without having to worry about possible water shortages as a result.
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
20 March 2023 07:55:16
WX temp charts show a sharp shrinkage in the area below 0C with essentially only Scandinavia affected in week 2. Still only a little better than seasonal norm for W Europe in week 1, and maybe a step backward in week 2 though not as chilly as shown yesterday. For warmth try S Spain or around the Black Sea. Rain from the Atlantic still affects Britain for the next fortnight, with some weaker extensions to the Baltic and the Alps.

GFS Op - an extended E-W trough from Atlantic to Russia sets up by Thu 23rd with multiple centres around 980mb, slowly clearing E-wards with briefly N-lies on its back edge Sun 26th. Then a period with the usual W to E progression of LPs from the Atlantic; 985mb Hebrides Thu 30th, 985mb Faeroes Tue 4th, winds from a W-ly quarter, pressure gradient from low in Shetland to (fairly) high in S England

ECM - similar to GFS though it throws in a local depression with the N-ly, 990mb Brittany Sun 26th

GEFS - mean temp near norm throughout but with notably increased divergence after the 26th. The colder period shown yesterday is no longer there maybe just a hint in the far NE. Rain from time to time throughout, more of it in the W.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
21 March 2023 08:10:06
WX temp charts - still very cold in extreme N Norway but in general freezing weather confined to an increasingly narrow band north of the latitude of the Baltic. W Europe looking average, perhaps slightly milder in week 2 (better than yesterday) but anything really warm confined to S Spain and around the Caspian. Rainfall from the Atlantic week 1 covering Britain and (patchily) W Europe, splitting into two areas in week 2, one form N Britain to Norway and one around the Alps.

GFS Op - the long-forecast trough from the Atlantic to Siberia in place for Thu 23rd, lowest pressure off W Scotland 965mb, and additional to yesterday creating a secondary LP 985mb Ireland Sat 26th (ECM picked up this feature, though) before filling and clearing E-wards, less of a N-ly on its back edge. New LPs from Atlantic ever further to the NW, 980mb Rockall Tue 28th, 980mb again Fri 31st Faeroes, with Sw-lies developing and pressure rising over the near continent, Belgium 1030mb Wed 5th.

ECM - has stepped back from yesterday; that secondary LP is cancelled and the back edge N-lies stronger. The new Lps from the Atlantic are further off to the NW and pressure is albeit briefly quite high over Britain 1025mb with ridge to Norway Thu 30th.

GEFS - mean temp with good support of ens members slowly declining to below norm (a little in the S, more in the N) Tue 28th, then a wide variety of outcomes with a mild spell around Sat 1st (more probable in S , less so in N) but back to norm later. Rain from time to time in many runs throughout, heaviest and most frequent in week 1 in the S, more generally distributed in the N. Chances of snow in the Highlands around Sun 27th. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
tierradelfuego
21 March 2023 19:28:37
This evening's 12z GEFS, down here at least, showing the potential for some warmer weather around the turn of the month, OP and Control at the top end but not unsupported. Might need to think about firing up the bbq....until the 18z no doubt.

When was the last time nowhere in the UK hit 20c by the end of March, it seems like it must have been a while but maybe not?
Bucklebury
West Berkshire Downs AONB
135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS
Rainfall collector separated at ground level
Anemometer separated above roof level
WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Weather)
doctormog
21 March 2023 19:44:23

This evening's 12z GEFS, down here at least, showing the potential for some warmer weather around the turn of the month, OP and Control at the top end but not unsupported. Might need to think about firing up the bbq....until the 18z no doubt.

When was the last time nowhere in the UK hit 20c by the end of March, it seems like it must have been a while but maybe not?

Originally Posted by: tierradelfuego 



Fingers crossed although (depressingly) there appears to be a chance of wintry weather here this coming weekend. 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Jacee
21 March 2023 19:57:10

This evening's 12z GEFS, down here at least, showing the potential for some warmer weather around the turn of the month, OP and Control at the top end but not unsupported. Might need to think about firing up the bbq....until the 18z no doubt.

When was the last time nowhere in the UK hit 20c by the end of March, it seems like it must have been a while but maybe not?

Originally Posted by: tierradelfuego 



I am not sure of the answer to your last question but it's probably not as long as you would think. The UK record for March is 25.6C on the 29th March 1968  which is not so deep into the twenties that a sub-20C month would be too unlikely. It's no doubt rarer to not see 20C in March than it used to be, but I would surmise that the real answer to your question isn't too unremarkable 😊

I am in full spring mode now though. These last few days of bright spells in between the showers and temperatures around 14C has been quite pleasant with the sun gaining strength, so I'm all for a 20C soon 😎
Jacee, Hucknall (Notts) 😽 x
doctormog
21 March 2023 20:01:51

This evening's 12z GEFS, down here at least, showing the potential for some warmer weather around the turn of the month, OP and Control at the top end but not unsupported. Might need to think about firing up the bbq....until the 18z no doubt.

When was the last time nowhere in the UK hit 20c by the end of March, it seems like it must have been a while but maybe not?

Originally Posted by: tierradelfuego 



Sorry I meant to answer this in my earlier post. I think the last time 20°C was not reached in March was as recently as 2020.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
tierradelfuego
21 March 2023 20:13:58
Thanks both, and yes sorry I think my grey matter must be deceiving me, 2020 only saw 16.6 and 2018's max was only 13.6 here. Even though we're rural, and at reasonable elevation for down here, 2020 seems likely. Slightly surprising but maybe it shouldn't be...
Bucklebury
West Berkshire Downs AONB
135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS
Rainfall collector separated at ground level
Anemometer separated above roof level
WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Weather)
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
21 March 2023 21:59:16

This evening's 12z GEFS, down here at least, showing the potential for some warmer weather around the turn of the month, OP and Control at the top end but not unsupported. Might need to think about firing up the bbq....until the 18z no doubt.

When was the last time nowhere in the UK hit 20c by the end of March, it seems like it must have been a while but maybe not?

Originally Posted by: tierradelfuego 



To turn the question on its head, 20C has been reached in some year for every day in March after the first week ( and several days in the first week reached 19-point-something, too)
https://www.torro.org.uk/extremes/date-records/max-temp 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
22 March 2023 08:36:45
WX temp charts; week 1 unexceptional with the freezing area continuing to shrink and confined to northern latitudes and W Europe near norm. But in week 2 a dramatic breakout with a tongue of freezing weather extending down through Belarus as far as the Carpathians - the real warmth is to be found, as yesterday, in S Spain and the Caspian. Rain from the Atlantic through Britain continuing into N Europe week 1, into SE Europe week 2.

GFS Op - the well- forecasted trough aligned W-E across Britain and on to Russia is now deepest Fri 24th 975mb W of Ireland, followed by N-lies on its back edge as it moves away E-wards, with a weak ridge of HP lying N-S until an Atlantic LP pushes in 990mb Scotland Sat 1st. Another LP moves SE-wards to Brittany 995 mb Tue 4th followed by NE-lies as HP sits mid-Atlantic 1035mb Fri 7th.

ECM - similar though Sat 1st is more general trough covering all of Britain.

GEFS - temps heading for a dip (more so than yesterday; snow in Scotland for a day or two as temp dips) Tue 28th with a swift rebound to mild Thu 30th after which agreement between ens members breaks down; the mean returns to norm. Rain on and off in most ens members, some heavy pulses in the SW at first.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4

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