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Saint Snow
10 May 2023 14:24:20

That's not the accumulated precipitation anomaly. It's a chart showing the anomaly for precipitable water at that momemt in time - i.e. the air over the UK was forecast to be moister than normal, meaning in theory there would be heavier rainfall if conditions permitted rain to fall.

Originally Posted by: Retron 



That's me lessoned! 

Where's the ppn anomaly charts then?

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Retron
10 May 2023 14:30:28

That's me lessoned! 

Where's the ppn anomaly charts then?

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


I don't think any of the mainstream sites (inc. TWO) have them, at least not for the GFS model.

This is my go to, but note the comparison period!

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.png 

 
Leysdown, north Kent
Saint Snow
10 May 2023 16:08:17

I don't think any of the mainstream sites (inc. TWO) have them, at least not for the GFS model.

This is my go to, but note the comparison period!

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.png 

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Thanks, Darren. This is why I shy away from lumbering into the Model Output thread 😄

GFS keeping the general theme going, though, of higher pressure to our north, being split from time to time by troughing from the north, and low pressure moving northwards from the south. When it's one unified high, it's not going to be too bad for most.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
moomin75
10 May 2023 18:00:14
GFS 12Z is an utter horror show for warm dry weather. 
Could well be mid June before we get anything decent (if at all).
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Brian Gaze
10 May 2023 18:04:33
Static chart from today's GFS 12z. Incredibly low temperatures in parts of the UK.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gandalf The White
10 May 2023 22:23:33

Static chart from today's GFS 12z. Incredibly low temperatures in parts of the UK.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Presumably there’s a problem with that chart and that’s why you posted it?  Data corruption? 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Retron
11 May 2023 03:43:41

Static chart from today's GFS 12z. Incredibly low temperatures in parts of the UK.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


A classic - we usually get one of these sorts of May charts every couple of years. It's making assumptions that cloud cover, combined with low 850s, will allow the chilly airmass to persist at the surface.

Come the day it won't be anywhere near that cold for most, of course.

 
Leysdown, north Kent
Retron
11 May 2023 03:46:19

GFS 12Z is an utter horror show for warm dry weather. 
Could well be mid June before we get anything decent (if at all).

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


I'm sure you'd count three days out of four getting into the 20s as pretty warm for the time of year. There's been all of 6mm of rain here in that time, all overnight or in the evening and in the form of a single brief shower each time. The ground is dry and cracked.

It's just that you're in the wrong part of the UK (as am I, of course).
Leysdown, north Kent
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
11 May 2023 06:59:56
WX charts still keen on the idea of warmth from the east but today only lets it get as far as Poland before diverting it north into Finland in week 2. In the meantime cool weather continues in place feeding down the North Sea; today's chart shows this area reaching south into France and Germany in week 2 as well as affecting Britain. Rain in both weeks concentrated in an area from W Scandinavia down to the Adriatic, dry patches to the NE (Russia) and SW (Portugal), the latter extending N-wards in week 2 to reach England.

GFS Op - Current trough over Britain slides SE to Italy leaving ridge of HP Atlantic to Norway Sat 13th. This soon breaks up between LPs over the continent and near Iceland; unlike yesterday the latter becomes dominant and is placed over Denmark 1000mb Wed 17th with N-lies for the east coast. This soon fills and then through to Sat 27th the pattern is that of the ridge of HP trying to re-establish, but always liable to weaken and leave Britain in a col as LPs to the NW and SE persist, each in turn becoming more influential.

ECM - agrees with GFS

GEFS - temps near norm now, cooler around Wed 17th, milder around Tue 23rd, after which agreement between ens members fails though mean is near norm. Small amounts of rain intermittently on most runs, but in Scotland and N England drier periods near Sat 13th and Thu 18th.
 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
Matty H
11 May 2023 07:58:09
An unprofessional slant, but just scrolling through the GFS and ECM on WX, we appear to be in a rut of waves of high pressure giving us more settled spells for a day or two before the next weather front approaches from the WNW, passes allowing high pressure to try and rebuild again from the SW before the next front pushes it back again. And rinse and repeat. 
Yate, Nr Bristol
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cultman1
11 May 2023 09:28:34
Although it’s early days could this pattern be a foretaste of the early/mid summer weather patterns for the U.K. ? The weather does seem stuck in a rut 
ballamar
11 May 2023 09:38:37

Although it’s early days could this pattern be a foretaste of the early/mid summer weather patterns for the U.K. ? The weather does seem stuck in a rut 

Originally Posted by: cultman1 


in a word no - typical transition period, the pattern can flip quickly
Ally Pally Snowman
11 May 2023 15:07:42

Although it’s early days could this pattern be a foretaste of the early/mid summer weather patterns for the U.K. ? The weather does seem stuck in a rut 

Originally Posted by: cultman1 



The fact the UK hasn't got to 22c yet is unusual and if it carries on like this we wont hit 30c this Summer.  But that would be very unlikely but not impossible.  The May CET is actually 1.5c above average so far which makes it even more odd. Ensembles look like they are warming up but the first 25c still looks a way off.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
12 May 2023 06:51:49
Underwhelming output continues.  Unsettledish and coolish for the foreseeable. We cant seem to break out of this pattern. 


Better news for Summer fans is that the ECM long range summer forecast is out and it's about as good as you can get for a hot summer.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/streaming/20230511-0540/f7/ps2png-worker-commands-7fb5f46bfd-b9lnj-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-83GFI6.png 



 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
12 May 2023 07:08:35
WX temp charts continue to show a warming trend for Europe over the next two weeks from a position in week 1 where most of the continent is below seasonal norm. There is a difference in emphasis, though, with warmer conditions spreading from the S rather than the E, and not quite reaching the Channel or Baltic coasts. Britain and Norway look like continuing cool. Rain heavy and persistent from S France across to Turkey becoming more localised to a strip just N of the Mediterranean in week 2 and a dry area in the N Sea expanding to cover Britain and the Baltic.

GFS Op - the feature to watch over the next two weeks is HP to the W or SW of Ireland. It's a bit elastic; stretches to Norway Sun 14th, retreats as LP moves up from the Med to N France Tue 16th, strengthens near the Hebrides 1030mb Fri 19th, back to mid-Atlantic Thu 25th with a day of N-ly gales for Britain and finally a modest revival Sun 28th

ECM - on Tue 16th the LP over N France links to Norway with brief cooler spell after which ECM ismore consistent in its treatment of HP, always (to Mon 22nd, anyway) keeping the ridge from Atlantic to Norway with continental LP nibbling at S England and giving E-lies there.

GEFS - temps close to or (esp in N)  below norm to Sun 21st after which mean near norm but a much wider spread of ens members, op warm then cool and control cool then warm. A little rain around Tue 16th after which mainly dry, a very few ens members have large amounts later on.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
12 May 2023 08:21:45

Underwhelming output continues.  Unsettledish and coolish for the foreseeable. We cant seem to break out of this pattern. 


Better news for Summer fans is that the ECM long range summer forecast is out and it's about as good as you can get for a hot summer.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/streaming/20230511-0540/f7/ps2png-worker-commands-7fb5f46bfd-b9lnj-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-83GFI6.png 



 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Looks promising but of course these are just based on probabilities and so can easily be wrong. On the other hand, June is often the month where the summer pattern is set, sometimes flipping totally from the spring pattern, so I certainly wouldn't be writing summer off yet. 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
12 May 2023 08:23:23
I wouldn't want to be on holiday in Italy next week. Pretty much the whole country looks cool and wet with heavy rain and thunderstorms. I'd expect to see reports of flooding coming in later in the week.
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Russwirral
12 May 2023 08:27:56
Snow t Scotland end of May.

Probably the coolest Spring (as a whole) for a while.  Much different to recent years

 

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Brian Gaze
12 May 2023 08:40:22

Snow t Scotland end of May.

Probably the coolest Spring (as a whole) for a while.  Much different to recent years

 

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 



Not sure if that's backed up by the CET tracker.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
12 May 2023 09:48:06

Snow t Scotland end of May.

Probably the coolest Spring (as a whole) for a while.  Much different to recent years

 

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 



GEFS shows a snow row figure of one out of a possible 33, in separate ens members on each of three days through to end of May, with pptn in minimal amounts. There could of course be more on the tops of the hills but widespread? No.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx 

Not like the good old days ...
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2020/jun/01/weatherwatch-freak-snow-stopped-cricket-on-2-june-1975 



 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Russwirral
12 May 2023 10:03:41

GEFS shows a snow row figure of one out of a possible 33, in separate ens members on each of three days through to end of May, with pptn in minimal amounts. There could of course be more on the tops of the hills but widespread? No.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx 

Not like the good old days ...
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2020/jun/01/weatherwatch-freak-snow-stopped-cricket-on-2-june-1975 



 

Originally Posted by: DEW 



Agreed - not widespread.  But unusual to see snow being forecast with repeated northerly plunges this late in the season.  Perhaps still echoes of the SSW impact in the patterns.

@Brian Gaze RE the Met link - it does look like we are tracking milder  - but thats against the 1960-1990 mean.  Im reflecting on recent springs which have - as we know - been quite warm.  

Point im making is - theres been no real warm spells so far this spring.  I thin the best weve managed is the odd day of 20*c down south.  Mostly locally here its been a case of the day is warm if the sun is out - but if its cloudy, its been rather cool.  My seeds seem to be a bit behind where they usually are.  

Also - a key natural indicator around these parts is the bluebells.  My Birthday is Mid April, and usually the bluebells around here are usually out before my birthday (I always make a point to see which comes first) .  However they only properly started to bloom in the first week of May.  Theyre about 3 weeks behind where they usually are.
 

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
12 May 2023 10:21:59

Looks promising but of course these are just based on probabilities and so can easily be wrong. On the other hand, June is often the month where the summer pattern is set, sometimes flipping totally from the spring pattern, so I certainly wouldn't be writing summer off yet. 

Originally Posted by: GezM 



You're right they are not reliable in the slightest. But ECM is one of the better ones so fingers crossed. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
12 May 2023 10:23:03



@Brian Gaze RE the Met link - it does look like we are tracking milder  - but thats against the 1960-1990 mean.  Im reflecting on recent springs which have - as we know - been quite warm.  

 

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 



Year Mar, Apr, May
2015 6.5, 9.1, 10.8
2016 5.8, 7.5, 12.6
2017 8.8, 9.0, 13.3
2018 5.0, 9.9, 13.3
2019 7.9, 9.2, 11.2
2020 6.8, 10.5, 12.5
2021 7.3, 6.5, 10.2
2022 8.0, 9.2, 13.1
2023 7.0 8.7 12.5

Doesn't look notable to me even when compared to recent years. I suspect the perceptions are in large part due to the wet conditions and lack of sun.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
12 May 2023 10:31:01

Year Mar, Apr, May
2015 6.5, 9.1, 10.8
2016 5.8, 7.5, 12.6
2017 8.8, 9.0, 13.3
2018 5.0, 9.9, 13.3
2019 7.9, 9.2, 11.2
2020 6.8, 10.5, 12.5
2021 7.3, 6.5, 10.2
2022 8.0, 9.2, 13.1
2023 7.0 8.7 12.5

Doesn't look notable to me even when compared to recent years. I suspect the perceptions are in large part due to the wet conditions and lack of sun.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Yes CET wise it's been completely unremarkable.  But it's the lack of any proper warm days which has been strange.  The UK hasn't hit 22c yet.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
12 May 2023 10:33:41


Point im making is - theres been no real warm spells so far this spring.  I thin the best weve managed is the odd day of 20*c down south.  Mostly locally here its been a case of the day is warm if the sun is out - but if its cloudy, its been rather cool.  My seeds seem to be a bit behind where they usually are.  

Also - a key natural indicator around these parts is the bluebells.  My Birthday is Mid April, and usually the bluebells around here are usually out before my birthday (I always make a point to see which comes first) .  However they only properly started to bloom in the first week of May.  Theyre about 3 weeks behind where they usually are.
 

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 



Point 1 - I think the 'average' temps have been just that, cooler days generally (though there have been exceptions for favoured spots like NW Scotland) compensated for by cloudy nights when temps have not really dipped. But the impression is created by what we experience when we're awake!

Point 2 - my bluebell record for Sussex is as below. This cropped up earlier and I was quite surprised to see Caz and others saying that their bluebells were not out when here they were in peak season, and now going over. Are they a species particularly sensitive to temperature, and the degree or so extra warmth on the S Coast just makes the difference?
First bluebells 26/3/07, 26/3/08, 20/4/10, 29/3/11, 14/3/12, 24/4/13, 9/4/14, 12/4/15, 27/2/16, 21/3/17, 11/4/18, 21/3/19, not recorded - Covid restrictions 20 & 21, 25/3/22 (Chi), 1/4/23 (all from Sussex, not always the same location)

FWIW, here's another plant indicator over the years. 'Species' includes everything down to weeds like groundsel.
Earliest date for 60+ species of flower in bloom   15/4/14, 3/6/15,  [2016?],16/5/17, 9/5/18, 2/5/19, not recorded - Covid restrictions 2020, 7/6/21, 27/5/22, 7/5/23 (recorded on a weekly walk, usually Sussex, duration about 3 hours)

 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl

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