theweatheroutlook

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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
17 May 2023 07:31:55
WX temp summaries continuing to show Europe warming up, but the pattern varies day by day. For now, week 1 has warm-ish weather reaching Poland from the east and creeping N past Portugal, Britain and France still on the cool side; week 2 shows France much warmer, the warmth still staying the other side of the Channel, and ominously the Norwegian coast steeping back to cool, even cold. Rain persistent all along the N side of the Mediterranean, very dry for S Britain to Baltic week 1, this dry area retreating to Ireland week 2.

GFS Op - as yesterday, HP at first building a broad ridge from mid-S Atlantic to Norway by Sat 20th, weakening in the middle to leave Britain in a col Mon 22nd, after which the Atlantic end intensifies and settles W of Ireland 1030mb Sat 27th while the Norway end moves E-wards and dissipates. A new pattern appears on Tue 30th, the HP moving N to Iceland while a deep LP runs S to the Baltic 985mb Tue 30th with N-lies for Britain's E coast. Although the HP returns S-wards by Fri2nd, there are still weak N-lies down the N Sea.

ECM - differs from GFS after Wed 24th so by Sat 27th there is generally HP across England and on into N Europe, while Scotland is in a W-ly regime and LP 990mb is moving rapidly E-wards past the Faeroes.

GEFS - becoming warm-ish by Tue 23rd, then a dip to a little below norm for 2-3 days before there is quite good agreement between ens members for 3-4C above norm for the rest of the forecast though the op run is a notable cold outlier, Very little rain, something showing up in some ens members at the start of June and also one or two runs suggest a wet day for the E coast on the 23rd.. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
Russwirral
17 May 2023 12:26:11
Looking through the temp annomallies for Europe for 850 and 2m, and its qute striking that we are approaching mid point of the year without much warmth on the continent.  This is a very different year climate wise for the continent.

Synoptically you could argue this is SSW still impacting us with lots of northern blocking allowing cool continental siberian air to filter down and create LPs over centre of Europe. 

Apart from the crazy heat wave of April, spain is looking average to poor weather wise for the next 2 weeks.  

I would say the season is about 1 month behind where it usually is... or is it this is what weather is actually meant to be like and not searingly hot all the time

Watch out for lots of Mosquitos in the med this year.  

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Jiries
17 May 2023 12:49:51

Looking through the temp annomallies for Europe for 850 and 2m, and its qute striking that we are approaching mid point of the year without much warmth on the continent.  This is a very different year climate wise for the continent.

Synoptically you could argue this is SSW still impacting us with lots of northern blocking allowing cool continental siberian air to filter down and create LPs over centre of Europe. 

Apart from the crazy heat wave of April, spain is looking average to poor weather wise for the next 2 weeks.  

I would say the season is about 1 month behind where it usually is... or is it this is what weather is actually meant to be like and not searingly hot all the time

Watch out for lots of Mosquitos in the med this year.  

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 



SSW is the main cause of it because from Jan to Feb it was going up well with mild to warming trends with 21C reached in Ukraine and mid to high teens everywhere.  SSW came on 1st March destroyed it and still destroying remaining Spring season.   Next year we need to be wishing NO SSW at all. 
Ally Pally Snowman
17 May 2023 12:54:00
Yes lots of High pressure in the outlook now. But we cant quite get it in the right place to produce some genuine warmth (mid 20s) . Maybe the end of May but not certain.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Saint Snow
17 May 2023 13:04:12

Yes lots of High pressure in the outlook now. But we cant quite get it in the right place to produce some genuine warmth (mid 20s) . Maybe the end of May but not certain.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 




Stays stubbornly centred to the west of the UK. When it does eventually move over us in FI (6z GFS), it links with that mammoth Greenland High to send cold air tumbling south down the North Sea.

Very much an air of 'if only it were December' about it. This, for instance, would be a little parky!

UserPostedImage

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
picturesareme
17 May 2023 23:07:12



Very much an air of 'if only it were December' about it. This, for instance, would be a little parky!

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


this would bring mid 20's easily down here but with some cooler than average nights. The same thing that makes these a flop down here in winter when it comes to snow actually works wonders in winter. 

Shades of summer 2013 with that chart 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
18 May 2023 06:40:56
WX temp summary - for week 1, still cool for the time of year over W Europe while E Russia is unseasonably warm; but the situation reverses in week 2 with continental W Europe becoming warm or v warm and some of this moving N into Britain. The cold plunge of yesterday to Norway and the N Sea has been written out. Continuing wet or v wet along the Med coast, the focus moving from S France in week 1 to the Balkans in week 2 with some slight relief for Italy. Britain and the Baltic States dry or v dry week 1, but Britain seeing some rain in week 2.

GFS Op - at first only a slight variation on yesterday. The predicted broad ridge of HP develops from Azores to Norway and is at its max extent Sun 21st (some E-lies for S England) before splitting into separate centres with a col between. This col is further E than previously, over Denmark rather than Britain,  Tue 23rd. The HP then progresses differently, moving up from the Atlantic to become centred over Scotland Sat 27th and the Norwegian end moves SE to the Baltic instead of dying away. These two sections then join up again to form a northern block from Iceland to Finland Wed 31st with a hint of thundery weather moving N for France. By the end, Sat 3rd, HP everywhere has declined and in particular Britain is under slack LP 1010mb centred Ireland.

ECM - ADDED - similar except that the col is more persistent  and continues to move still further E, preventing a link between the two halves of the area of HP. By Sun 28th it has become an extended shallow trough over W Russia, but the British end of  the HP is well established 1030mb Scotland or just to the W

GEFS - A steady rise to about 5C above seasonal norm by Wed 31st and holding there ; good agreement from ens members esp in S (the op is back on board after yesterday). Very little rain but appearing in some runs at the start of June. (Scotland has a regional downpour on Sun 21st, one day only! and there are possible showers in the SW)
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
ballamar
18 May 2023 06:42:05
Think the charts are beginning to look ominous for the summer - the high pressure belt looks firm and similar but earlier feeling to last year. Definite chances of similar heat builds and potentially as high as last year. Could be good to have a home holiday!
Brian Gaze
18 May 2023 07:05:53

Think the charts are beginning to look ominous for the summer - the high pressure belt looks firm and similar but earlier feeling to last year. Definite chances of similar heat builds and potentially as high as last year. Could be good to have a home holiday!

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



😂 Let's get to 30C first so that nugget can be put to bed for another summer. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gandalf The White
18 May 2023 08:01:35

😂 Let's get to 30C first so that nugget can be put to bed for another summer. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Or maybe the first 40c
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


ballamar
18 May 2023 11:39:02

😂 Let's get to 30C first so that nugget can be put to bed for another summer. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


there is no longer any doubt that will be reached nowadays.
Saint Snow
18 May 2023 13:35:55

this would bring mid 20's easily down here but with some cooler than average nights. The same thing that makes these a flop down here in winter when it comes to snow actually works wonders in winter. 

Shades of summer 2013 with that chart 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 



The chart annoying changes each run so what you commented on would have been different to what it looked like when I posted it 😣😂

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
picturesareme
18 May 2023 14:09:10

The chart annoying changes each run so what you commented on would have been different to what it looked like when I posted it 😣😂

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



The chart I commented on had a massive block towards Iceland & Greenland extended down over the UK. The one currently showing isn't the one 🙂
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
18 May 2023 15:27:29

I wouldn't want to be on holiday in Italy next week. Pretty much the whole country looks cool and wet with heavy rain and thunderstorms. I'd expect to see reports of flooding coming in later in the week.

Originally Posted by: GezM 



Don't usually blow my own trumpet. I just wish I could predict the CET accurately too!!
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
fairweather
18 May 2023 17:38:26

I wouldn't want to be on holiday in Italy next week. Pretty much the whole country looks cool and wet with heavy rain and thunderstorms. I'd expect to see reports of flooding coming in later in the week.

Originally Posted by: GezM 


Spot on with that prediction. I have just returned from Bulgaria and their cool, cloudy weather all week was unheard of. I may be glad of that though as potential for that Italian rain to spread East!
S.Essex, 42m ASL
White Meadows
18 May 2023 18:16:20
Very strange feel about spring this year. Off the back of a bone dry February, then a soggy dull & windy March, cool April and yet still no sign of proper warmth/ into the high 20’s we’ve normally reached weeks ago in modern times. Yet the narrative of a melting earth is drummed despite a un-noteworthy CET and cool Europe. 

If the pattern change comes in a couple of weeks then June  could end up very wet indeed. 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
18 May 2023 19:12:38

Very strange feel about spring this year. Off the back of a bone dry February, then a soggy dull & windy March, cool April and yet still no sign of proper warmth/ into the high 20’s we’ve normally reached weeks ago in modern times. Yet the narrative of a melting earth is drummed despite a un-noteworthy CET and cool Europe. 

If the pattern change comes in a couple of weeks then June  could end up very wet indeed. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



You have to think globally on this one. The heat in Spain may have been a one-week wonder but the area of E Europe around the Caspian and into the Urals has been consistently above average. 

India and SE Asia have been having record early season temps https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Asia_heat_wave  as has NW USA and Canada. Europe is not the only continent!
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
fairweather
18 May 2023 21:01:16

I wouldn't want to be on holiday in Italy next week. Pretty much the whole country looks cool and wet with heavy rain and thunderstorms. I'd expect to see reports of flooding coming in later in the week.

Originally Posted by: GezM 


Spot on with that prediction. I have just returned from Bulgaria and their cool, cloudy weather all week was unheard of. I may be glad of that though as potential for that Italian rain to spread East!
S.Essex, 42m ASL
White Meadows
18 May 2023 21:31:58
Very strange feel about spring this year. Off the back of a bone dry February, then a soggy dull & windy March, cool April and yet still no sign of proper warmth/ into the high 20’s we’ve normally reached weeks ago in modern times. Yet the narrative of a melting earth is drummed despite a un-noteworthy CET and cool Europe. 

If the pattern change comes in a couple of weeks then June  could end up very wet indeed. 
Saint Snow
18 May 2023 21:51:34

Very strange feel about spring this year. Off the back of a bone dry February, then a soggy dull & windy March, cool April and yet still no sign of proper warmth/ into the high 20’s we’ve normally reached weeks ago in modern times. Yet the narrative of a melting earth is drummed despite a un-noteworthy CET and cool Europe. 

If the pattern change comes in a couple of weeks then June  could end up very wet indeed. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 




If I'm right, what happens next is DEW says, "You have to think globally on this one. The heat in Spain may have been a one-week wonder but the area of E Europe around the Caspian and into the Urals has been consistently above average. 

India and SE Asia have been having record early season temps https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Asia_heat_wave  as has NW USA and Canada. Europe is not the only continent!"

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
19 May 2023 06:29:57
Something odd going on with duplicated posts above, with two from WM half an hour apart.  I've not deleted for fear of taking out both the original and the later duplicate.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
19 May 2023 07:00:56
WX charts still showing a general warm-up in week 2, though not as much as yesterday. In week 1, there's a cool patch covering France, Britain and Norway but by week 2 the 'yellow' area (14C day-night average) covers all continental Europe, except the Alps, plus S Scandinavia. However Britain is still no better than average (this may reflect the op run profile in GEFS, see below). Rain in week 1 patchy in N Italy, Balkans, W Russia but adding in Spain and filling up gaps in week 2 for a thoroughly wet S Europe. Britain dry both weeks esp in the W.

GFS Op - broad ridge of HP lying SW-NE across N Britain with E-lies for the S until about Tue 23rd, and then the HP intensifies and localises over Britain 1035mb Fri 26th. It then declines and slowly moves NW-wards to be situated Greenland Sun 4th with light N-lies for Britain for the preceding week. Continental and esp S Europe retains shallow LP throughout, typically 1010mb.

ECM - the HP develops from Tue 23rd as above, but first tends to be centred W of Ireland though near enough to cover Britain, and then does not become localised, rather a broad area near Newfoundland to Denmark including all of Britain 1025mb by Sun 28th

GEFS - although slightly lower at first and also around Wed 24th, for most of the next two weeks the mean and most ens members are 3-5C above norm (op on the cool side throughout esp noticeable later in Scotland). Very dry, perhaps  a few showers in May and more generally a little rain at the beginning of June.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
Jtaw45
19 May 2023 10:14:51
It's all lining up nicely for a favourable Bank holiday weekend.
picturesareme
19 May 2023 12:10:21
Despite what some might think reading some of the post in here it's actually been a nice few weeks. It's been a largely dry 3 weeks with lots of sunshine compared to earlier in the spring, and 16 of the last 20 days down here have managed at least 18C. 
Ally Pally Snowman
19 May 2023 12:22:26

Despite what some might think reading some of the post in here it's actually been a nice few weeks. It's been a largely dry 3 weeks with lots of sunshine compared to earlier in the spring, and 16 of the last 20 days down here have managed at least 18C. 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 



Yep May has been ok. But the stand out stat is that the UK has still failed to get to 22c. The latest since 1983 i believe. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

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