Temp charts from WX show more heat than yesterday. Still a bit cool in week 1 close to the N Sea and in E Europe from Romania up to W Russia, but both areas becoming warm in week 2 and really hot in France and S England (just a small cold pool in the Balkans). Very dry from N Sea to Baltic in both weeks, and the belt of rain in S Europe becoming confined to the Balkans; Britain itself with some rain between dry sea areas on either side - convective situation?
GFS Op - HP over Scandinavia bringing in S/SE-lies and warmth for Britain to Wed 14th; then the HP drifts W-wards forming a N-S ridge over Britain until Sun 18th. This weakens for a few days as LP from Atlantic nears Ireland but resumes before collapsing in favour of slack LP imported from France Sun 25th. Further afield, throughout the period there is a tendency for pressure to be fairly high over the Baltic, fairly low for W and SE Europe, and the only strong feature an LP 990mb S Russia drifting N-wards.
ECM - similar to GFS until Sun 18th when the HP remains strong and drifts W-wards to lie W of Scotland and a weaker Atlantic LP stays off NW Spain rather than Ireland.
GEFS - very warm until about Wed 14th then continuing a degree or two above norm through to Mon 26th with good ens agreement (minor exceptions of an uptick in op & control at the very end and in the N one or two extremely cold outliers near Wed 21st). Small amounts of rain to 14th, then dry to Mon 19th when small amounts of rain appear in an increasing number of ens members, (but larger amounts more continuously in far N & W).
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl