Remove ads from site

Ally Pally Snowman
10 June 2023 16:23:43

31.2c in Charlwood at 3pm hottest so far. Date record is 31.7c from 1970 so likely to go.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Chertsey top spot today 32.2c . Date record.  Well done UKV model. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Retron
10 June 2023 16:29:11

Chertsey top spot today 32.2c . Date record.  Well done UKV model. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Remarkably high, equal to the warmest day of the year in 2021, for example, and warmer than anything in the years of 2007-2010.

There were only two years in the whole of the 1980s which recorded warmer days. Scary huh?
 
Leysdown, north Kent
ballamar
10 June 2023 17:28:18

Remarkably high, equal to the warmest day of the year in 2021, for example, and warmer than anything in the years of 2007-2010.

There were only two years in the whole of the 1980s which recorded warmer days. Scary huh?
 

Originally Posted by: Retron 


only when people realise - heat is here to stay and will only get worse. The build up to this was chilly easterly winds and a wet continent
Ally Pally Snowman
10 June 2023 17:35:05
12z Arpege has 30c at least, every day to Wednesday. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
10 June 2023 18:29:24
UKV 15z also 30c every day until Wednesday.  Only 29c Thursday though. 😁
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Russwirral
10 June 2023 18:44:19
AROME as usuall has nailed this storm formation.
Jiries
10 June 2023 19:49:26

UKV 15z also 30c every day until Wednesday.  Only 29c Thursday though. 😁

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Really hoping for 13th June to complete the missing puzzle so high chance to achieve it.
Ally Pally Snowman
10 June 2023 20:05:23

Really hoping for 13th June to complete the missing puzzle so high chance to achieve it.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



Yes I think there is a great chance this year.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
10 June 2023 20:24:02

It's amazing how easily 30C is reached these days. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Indeed.
From a standing start the weather now seems to have the acceleration of an EV.
Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
11 June 2023 07:20:29
WX charts; week 1 NW Europe incl Britain and much of Scandinavia hot, but a cooler patch around the Alps, and much of Russia rather cold for the time of year. Week 2 much the same, a little cooler for N Britain but the Alpine patch shrinking. For rainfall, week 1 continuing very wet in the Balkans and the Black Sea area, very dry across N Sea and Scandinavia, a little rain for W Scotland. Week 2, Britain becoming wet and this linking through the Alps to the Balkans (it just doesn't give up there). Dry-ish in Scandinavia.

GFS Op - HP over Scandinavia with weak ridge to Britain (mostly the N) for this week, declining Mon 19th as LP near Cornwall 1005mb comes and goes across Britain for the following week, with an indeterminate balance between shallow LP on Atlantic and weak HP in the Baltic.

ECM - similar to GFS, the LP over Ireland rather than Cornwall

GEFS - temps declining from v. warm now to near norm Fri 16th (less of a dip in the N) followed by a return of warmth peaking Tue 20th before the mean returns to norm though usual variation in ens members by this time. Rain in the next couple of days possible, then mainly dry esp in S & E until until Tue 20th when rain becoming frequent in many ens members though not all.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Charmhills
11 June 2023 08:52:11
Maybe signs of more unsettled weather in the output in a weeks times with some useful rain/thunder and a little cooler with time to.
Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Ally Pally Snowman
11 June 2023 15:53:19
Another day another date record 31.2c at Heathrow beating 31.1c in Cambridge way back in 1900. 

Next 3 days all look beatable including the 29.2c for the 13th.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
11 June 2023 18:29:03

Another day another date record 31.2c at Heathrow beating 31.1c in Cambridge way back in 1900. 

Next 3 days all look beatable including the 29.2c for the 13th.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Countryfile forecast for the 13th was for a max of 29C with an outside chance of 30C somewhere S of London
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
11 June 2023 18:33:28

Countryfile forecast for the 13th was for a max of 29C with an outside chance of 30C somewhere S of London

Originally Posted by: DEW 



Both Arpege and UKV have 30c for Tuesday.  So a great chance this year.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
11 June 2023 21:26:22

Another day another date record 31.2c at Heathrow beating 31.1c in Cambridge way back in 1900. 

Next 3 days all look beatable including the 29.2c for the 13th.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Kew looks like the hot spot with 32.0C today, so comfortably above the old date record. But not quite the hottest day of the year.
Still, 32C used to be exceptional heat and now we can reach it in a bog standard set-up after a chilly week, with 850s barely into the teens. It almost feels like the sun has got stronger, but I assume that is not the case.

A quick look at GFS shows another mini plume towards the end of the run on the op, but that is some way out of line. Generally the pack seems pretty tight with somewhat cooler and less settled conditions likely.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
12 June 2023 06:56:16
WX charts for week 1 show very warm weather spread from France and Britain all the way up to the Gulf of Bothnia and hot through the Mediterranean but with something cooler around the Danube basin in between. In week 2 virtually the whole of continental W Europe becomes hot, but cooler weather pushes down from the north restricting warmth in Britain and Scandinavia only to their southern parts. Mainly dry from N Sea to W Russia in week 1, heavy rain from Greece to Romania and a little for Atlantic coasts. In week 2, rain well distributed across all of Europe except Spain. Locally, Ireland, Wales and NW Britain can expect significant amounts.

BBC 5-day farmers' forecast hinting at a break in the weather at the end of the 5-day period; Glastonbury starts on 21st so traditional mud may well be available.

GFS Op - a broad ridge of HP from Scandinavia to N Britain persists to Fri 16th after which a general switch to shallow LP over most of N Europe becoming localised 1000mb Bristol Channel Wed 21st followed by a deeper LP 985mb Sun 25th off NW Ireland with brisk SW-lies, while pressure rises over France and Germany. This HP is affecting Britain by Wed 28th while LP dragging cooler air behind moves S over Finland

ECM - similar to GFS but the LP Wed 21st covers a larger area and drifts NE-wards without bringing in a new atlantic LP

GEFS - temps back down to norm or a couple of degrees above in S and staying there from Fri 16th; in the N mean temp stays 3 or 4C above norm (contrast WX above). Mostly dry to Mon 19th (Fri 17th in the NW) after which significant rain in many ens members esp in W. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
12 June 2023 07:09:36
Models looking pretty steamy this morning.  Particularly ECM which is setting up a very hot pattern by day 10. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
12 June 2023 08:06:03

Models looking pretty steamy this morning.  Particularly ECM which is setting up a very hot pattern by day 10. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Potentially quite a lot of rain in western parts before that though. Both ECM and GFS are going for a significant breakdown early next week. Eastern areas may well stay much drier. 

Late June is looking very interesting on the GFS Op run with major heat drifting north from Iberia. 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Brian Gaze
12 June 2023 08:22:53

Potentially quite a lot of rain in western parts before that though. Both ECM and GFS are going for a significant breakdown early next week. Eastern areas may well stay much drier. 

Late June is looking very interesting on the GFS Op run with major heat drifting north from Iberia. 

Originally Posted by: GezM 



Indeed.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
ballamar
12 June 2023 08:32:35

Indeed.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Nessie might be safe for now
Charmhills
12 June 2023 08:44:34

Models looking pretty steamy this morning.  Particularly ECM which is setting up a very hot pattern by day 10. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Yeah, but very thundery!!!!⛈

https://services.meteored.com/img/models/ecmwf/ECMWF_186_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png 

https://services.meteored.com/img/models/ecmwf/ECMWF_210_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png 

For example.
Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
fairweather
12 June 2023 08:47:18

Models looking pretty steamy this morning.  Particularly ECM which is setting up a very hot pattern by day 10. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


By then we will have had six weeks of dry weather in the East and South East although I imagine everywhere will be desperate for rain by then.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
12 June 2023 09:06:28

By then we will have had six weeks of dry weather in the East and South East although I imagine everywhere will be desperate for rain by then.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



Yes the up coming thundery spell in about a week looks quite hit and miss in the East. After that hints of low pressure stalling again and re- establishing to our west/south west. If that happens it's only going to get hotter. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
moomin75
12 June 2023 16:47:52
Hmm. Interesting development on the GFS 12Z which makes a lot less of the low out west and in fact after trying to get in over the UK is forced back west into the Atlantic, setting up a plume type scenario from the south.
One to watch, but any relaxation of the heat may be very shortlived. 

UKMO 12z is broadly similar, the low approaches from the west, fills, then backs west again, drawing up a very warm air mass.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Charmhills
12 June 2023 17:08:32

Yes the up coming thundery spell in about a week looks quite hit and miss in the East. After that hints of low pressure stalling again and re- establishing to our west/south west. If that happens it's only going to get hotter. 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



In line with John Hammond's thoughts regarding a warm, thundery outlook after a quitter spell mid week and slightly fresher.
Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.

Remove ads from site

Ads