theweatheroutlook

Remove ads from site

Ally Pally Snowman
14 June 2023 12:12:38

I would be very surprised if GFS was right for Sunday,  has 13c temps at 3pm here compared to 25c on ECM.    The new GFS is awful.
But if we get some rain at the weekend/Monday it will be a good thing, can't really see anything too concerning.  Rain moving NE Sunday afternoon/evening/overnight looks most likely. 

Originally Posted by: Tim A 



I agree since its 'upgrade' which I think was November the Op has been very erratic.  It was predicting 17c for London for Last Saturday just 4 days before.  Reality was 32c. It's ensembles are still decent though worth taking notice of. 

 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
moomin75
14 June 2023 15:51:38
12z ICON now also shows 2007-esque flooding rains this weekend.
Pretty concerning to be honest, as it could be exceptionally wet, leading to newsworthy headlines.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
doctormog
14 June 2023 15:53:46

12z ICON now also shows 2007-esque flooding rains this weekend.
Pretty concerning to be honest, as it could be exceptionally wet, leading to newsworthy headlines.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



Are you sure? https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=20&model=ico&var=49&run=12&time=108&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref  
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Retron
14 June 2023 15:56:11

Are you sure? https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=20&model=ico&var=49&run=12&time=108&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref  

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


You beat me to it! That's not floodworthy for the UK at least - perhaps for bits of Eire, but not the UK.

Bring on the rain, we desperately need it down here.

(Not that I trust any of the models at this range wrt amounts.... GFS has a whopping 0.4mm here by the end of Sunday, for example.)
Leysdown, north Kent
+2
speckledjim
14 June 2023 16:16:00

12z ICON now also shows 2007-esque flooding rains this weekend.
Pretty concerning to be honest, as it could be exceptionally wet, leading to newsworthy headlines.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



I'm not concerned, you said this in May.  "GFS 12Z is an utter horror show for warm dry weather. Could well be mid June before we get anything decent (if at all)".
Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
+2
Ally Pally Snowman
14 June 2023 16:51:44
Growing theme of high pressure building in strongly from 192h. GEM is a stunner this afternoon 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
bledur
14 June 2023 17:52:40

Still looks to me like a 2007-style flood is on the cards in many parts of Western and Central UK on Sunday. 
Looks utterly horrendous in western areas, and could be some newsworthy conditions over the weekend.
GFS has not backed away from this over 4 or 5 consecutive runs. 

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


How much money are you prepared to put on that?😆
+1
LeedsLad123
14 June 2023 17:52:47

I agree since its 'upgrade' which I think was November the Op has been very erratic.  It was predicting 17c for London for Last Saturday just 4 days before.  Reality was 32c. It's ensembles are still decent though worth taking notice of. 

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


GFS was showing 23-25C for this entire spell of weather here despite all other models showing 26-30C. I don't know why it's underestimating temperatures so much and I feel like it was never this poor.
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Joe Bloggs
15 June 2023 05:52:26
A sensational GFS op this morning.

After a blink and you miss it unsettled blip at the start of next week, it’s back to the usual. Hot, dry and sunny for the foreseeable - with the high pressure nudging back in by T+180 . Fairly well supported by the GEFS. Turning very hot into FI too. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_180_1.png 


 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
15 June 2023 06:06:05

A sensational GFS op this morning.

After a blink and you miss it unsettled blip at the start of next week, it’s back to the usual. Hot, dry and sunny for the foreseeable - with the high pressure nudging back in by T+180 . Fairly well supported by the GEFS. Turning very hot into FI too. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_180_1.png 


 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



Yes a late June plume has been on the cards for awhile.  Low pressure stalling in the mid Atlantic decent push from the Azores. Could be a hot end to June. This morning's GFS has 35c in the east.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
15 June 2023 06:57:24
ECM similar to the GFS this morning. Becoming hot again by the end.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ballamar
15 June 2023 07:07:29

ECM similar to the GFS this morning. Becoming hot again by the end.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Looking ominous, some people are halfway through building an ark and will be wondering is it's worth finishing. 
+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
15 June 2023 07:11:58
WX temps - compared to yesterday the heat not only hangs on but intensifies over W Europe with very high temps from Spain up to the Baltic. Still cool in Russia, esp in the E near the Urals and this also promotes something a little cooler down towards Romania. Rain well distributed across Europe in week 1 (dry in N Norway and Spain, though); in week 2 dry from England to the Baltic with patches of rain on either side of this zone, including NW Scotland.

GFS Op - Current HP declining as LP moves to W Ireland 1005mb Sun 18th bringing up S-lies and secondary shallow LP from France (BBC last night had an impressive tangle of fronts and rainfall for England associated with this*) . The parent LP moves off NE-wards and by Thu 22nd a new HP cell 1025m b appears over England by Sat 24th extending as a ridge to Norway, E-lies for the S and SW-lies for the Hebrides. As this declines, LP becomes established over Britain and deepens to 1000/995mb Fri 30th/Sat 1st SW Eire/NW Scotland

ECM - similar to GFS but pressure takes a couple of days longer to recover (and, later, spread to Norway) after the weekend

GEFS - temps high over the weekend in the S with rain generally , becoming dry in the S though rain persists in the N, with temps near or a little above norm. Chances of some rain later on, but really high temps in week 2 mainly restricted to the op run. 

* I now see this morning that the MetO has downgraded this event so that heavy rain is expected Sun night restricted to E Kent and eastern E Anglia, just a few showers elsewhere
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
moomin75
15 June 2023 07:45:53

Looking ominous, some people are halfway through building an ark and will be wondering is it's worth finishing. 

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


I will keep building my ark for the next floodmageddon. 

Does look like staying largely on the warm side I must admit.

Question is, how much rain will the next 5-7 days bring?
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
fairweather
15 June 2023 08:01:09
I've got an allotment and we've had virtually no rain during the growing season in the last three years. Everything relies on artificial watering and luckily there are free water tanks nearby to our plot. Hopefully we will get some rain Sun/Mon but I very much doubt that will still be on the charts come the weekend.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
+1
Rob K
15 June 2023 08:37:11

I will keep building my ark for the next floodmageddon. 

Does look like staying largely on the warm side I must admit.

Question is, how much rain will the next 5-7 days bring?

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



GFS has 23mm here in the next 10 days of which 11mm falls on Sunday. Only the Western Isles and parts of Ireland get above 2 inches of rain in the next 10 days.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Darren S
15 June 2023 09:33:18

GFS has 23mm here in the next 10 days of which 11mm falls on Sunday. Only the Western Isles and parts of Ireland get above 2 inches of rain in the next 10 days.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



I really hope this is right this time. My nearest PWS has recorded nothing since 15th May. Dread to think what my water bill is going to be, our garden is large and thirsty!
Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
warrenb
15 June 2023 09:48:06
11th May was the last recorded rain here, thankfully we have 2 very large water butts that are still going.
Tonbridge 45m 
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
15 June 2023 10:15:43
UserPostedImage

I'm sure if there is a shower it will find Witney.




 
Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
+1
Retron
15 June 2023 10:56:14

I really hope this is right this time. My nearest PWS has recorded nothing since 15th May. Dread to think what my water bill is going to be, our garden is large and thirsty!

Originally Posted by: Darren S 


I've been lugging watering cans around on a daily basis, the water butt long since having been exhausted. The only good thing is that at least I'm unmetered (as Southern Water couldn't find the stopcock after several tries), so it doesn't cost any more...

It'd be nice to get some natural watering going on, though, and I'm hopeful this weekend or early next week might see a little relief. Only a little, though, as it doesn't look like a switch to a wetter pattern is happening... just a brief blip as the highs relocate.
 
Leysdown, north Kent
moomin75
15 June 2023 11:49:41

UserPostedImage

I'm sure if there is a shower it will find Witney.




 

Originally Posted by: NMA 

Well, my water butts are overflowing....250 gallons in each, and much of it being rain water collected from just the weekend's rain.
I fully expect them to continue to overflow next week.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Joe Bloggs
15 June 2023 16:37:58
If you’re not a fan of the idea of yet more hot, dry and sunny weather - avoid the 12z GFS op 😉 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
doctormog
15 June 2023 16:40:14

If you’re not a fan of the idea of yet more hot, dry and sunny weather - avoid the 12z GFS op 😉 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



Yes a bit of (needed) rainfall briefly then followed by more very warm or potentially hot weather. It’s not an isolated run rather a strongly suggested trend.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Ally Pally Snowman
15 June 2023 17:28:36

If you’re not a fan of the idea of yet more hot, dry and sunny weather - avoid the 12z GFS op  

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



A beauty,  would likely produce a record June CET as well.

 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Joe Bloggs
15 June 2023 18:09:21

A beauty,  would likely produce a record June CET as well.

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



12z MetO has a slower evolution and hard to be sure where it would go from t+168.. I suspect high pressure though. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMHDOPEU12_168_1.png 
 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Remove ads from site

Ads