theweatheroutlook

Remove ads from site

Chunky Pea
18 June 2023 15:43:42

Yes, I've a bit of a reverse Moomin feeling about all this... that bubble of >20C 850s is looming large. There's also an ominous looking low to the west of Iberia, the classic "heat pump" scenario.

The wetter weather we'll enjoy this week is all part of it, of course. At the moment we're to the north of the jet, as we have been for some weeks now. That's very unusual at this time of year (the textbooks say the jet should be between Iceland and Scotland). Note that even on the cold side of the jet, with persistent NE'lies, we're still far above average this month... and we've set several daily CET records, in fact.

The jet is now working its way north, meaning the belt of rain which has lain to our south over the past few weeks is making its way north. The models show the jet assuming its textbook position by the end of the month.

That opens the gates to plumes and the rest, meaning we'll need a bit of luck if we're to avoid widespread spells of 30C+ again this year. I don't expect the jet will retreat southwards again any time soon!

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Depressing beyond belief. Yet another summer of humid, windless, rainless heat ahead. 😢😢
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Joe Bloggs
18 June 2023 17:12:59
12z MetO looks close to setting up a very hot spell of weather.

The pendulum is (for now at least) swinging back towards high pressure. 

Edit - GEM is a bit of a party pooper but still settled in the SE. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Charmhills
18 June 2023 17:54:05
After the thundery weather has cleared through by mid-week, high pressure builds again and the temps go up along with the sunshine.😎
Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Rob K
18 June 2023 19:31:48
P15 is the scorchio run on the GEFS with a run of low to mid 30s around the end of the month.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Saint Snow
18 June 2023 21:07:39

Depressing beyond belief. Yet another summer of humid, windless, rainless heat ahead. 😢😢

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 



Excellent. 

I don't ask for much from the weather gods, just warm, sunny, dry summers and cold, snowy winters. 

One out of two regularly will do, I suppose. 

Great summers mean family days out at the beach, bbq's, getting in the hot tub on an evening, being able to plan things like parties with some confidence, etc. 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+3
Bolty
18 June 2023 21:13:08
If this evening's models are correct, it's looking like a historic June for this part of the world. The Azores High is looking very "ridgey" this year, and another hot spell in the final week would easily push this month above June 1976 and into the 17 degree CET territory.

What a month it's turning into! All that's needed now is a 19-degree July and August and a 17-degree September!
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
+3
Joe Bloggs
18 June 2023 21:33:18

If this evening's models are correct, it's looking like a historic June for this part of the world. The Azores High is looking very "ridgey" this year, and another hot spell in the final week would easily push this month above June 1976 and into the 17 degree CET territory.

What a month it's turning into! All that's needed now is a 19-degree July and August and a 17-degree September!

Originally Posted by: Bolty 



I agree, it really has been brilliant. Some fantastic storms too. 👍👍

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
+2
Chunky Pea
18 June 2023 21:37:43

Excellent. 

I don't ask for much from the weather gods, just warm, sunny, dry summers and cold, snowy winters. 

One out of two regularly will do, I suppose. 

Great summers mean family days out at the beach, bbq's, getting in the hot tub on an evening, being able to plan things like parties with some confidence, etc. 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


I get that, but high Summer warmth nowadays is usually accompanied by dewpoints hovering somewhere between 17c and 22c. This really wears thin after a while. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
+1
Matty H
18 June 2023 23:08:45

I get that, but high Summer warmth nowadays is usually accompanied by dewpoints hovering somewhere between 17c and 22c. This really wears thin after a while. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 



For some. Not for me. The more hot and humid the better. Bring on record-breaking extremes

It’s like when people want bitter cold in winter. No thanks but I’ll have the absolute opposite please!!
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
+1
Downpour
18 June 2023 23:13:43
Warm if not very warm for the foreseeable.

Hopefully bearable at night, but looks marginal on that front. 

I’m not a hot weather fan but it seems obtuse to complain about summery weather in summer. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
+1
Jiries
19 June 2023 05:31:02

If this evening's models are correct, it's looking like a historic June for this part of the world. The Azores High is looking very "ridgey" this year, and another hot spell in the final week would easily push this month above June 1976 and into the 17 degree CET territory.

What a month it's turning into! All that's needed now is a 19-degree July and August and a 17-degree September!

Originally Posted by: Bolty 



Seem good month overall and yesterday and last night heavy rain should stop the whining about dryness as it now looking great ahead with more welcome dry warm summery weather.  Look to stay dry for long while so less weeds to grow wild and fast like it did in wet Spring.  
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
19 June 2023 06:25:55

For some. Not for me. The more hot and humid the better. Bring on record-breaking extremes.

It’s like when people want bitter cold in winter. No thanks but I’ll have the absolute opposite please!!

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



If ever a case of be careful what you wish for.
Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
19 June 2023 07:01:35
WX temps show continuing warmth across Europe for the next two weeks but not as hot as as predicted yesterday, and the heat more over Germany than France. At the same time unusual warmth retreats from N Scotland and Bothnia to something more average in week 2, and the cool area in Russia persists. Rain well distributed across Europe in week 1. Dry area developing from S Britain to Baltic in week 2, with heavy rain (again!) for the Alps and Balkans, smaller amounts N Scotland and Norway.

GFS Op - current LP moves off to Iceland by mid week as forecast. HP then ridges in from the Azores - by next weekend (24th) mainly to S England with Scotland affected by SW-lies generated by LP 990mb S of Iceland. The ridge drifts N-wards to Scotland by Thu 29th with S England affected by continental LP. Then there are developments on the Atlantic with LP 990 mb Faeroes from Mon 29th and W-lies generally, while an ex-hurricane appears well to the SW (see post in Tropical Storm thread) but making little progress.

ECM - similar to GFS until 24th when the LP south of Iceland persists and moves E-wards across N Scotland to Norway by Thu 29th with the HP keeping its distance in mid-Atlantic, generating cool W/NW-ly winds for all of Britain.

GEFS - staying warm or very warm to a peak around Tue 27th then declining slowly (in the S) or quickly (in the N) to a little above norm with quite good ens agreement (yesterday's extremes have disappeared). Continuing very dry in the S, just a couple of splashes this week, little else, but fairly frequent rainfall in the NW. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
Ally Pally Snowman
19 June 2023 07:02:44
Poor ECM this morning hopefully it's off. Other output looks solid enough but perhaps less hot than looked likely yesterday.  Always better the further south and east you go.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
The Beast from the East
19 June 2023 07:50:49

Poor ECM this morning hopefully it's off. Other output looks solid enough but perhaps less hot than looked likely yesterday.  Always better the further south and east you go.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



I like ECM as hopefully we will lose the sticky humidity and return to normal  fresh UK summer feel. Disturbing to see so many mosquitos around. Like being abroad

 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Rob K
19 June 2023 09:41:06

GEFS - staying warm or very warm to a peak around Tue 27th then declining slowly (in the S) or quickly (in the N) to a little above norm with quite good ens agreement (yesterday's extremes have disappeared). Continuing very dry in the S, just a couple of splashes this week, little else, but fairly frequent rainfall in the NW. 

Originally Posted by: DEW 


Still a couple of members going above 20C at 850mb in the south. Both the op and control took the cooler route on the 00Z though.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Chunky Pea
19 June 2023 10:21:00

For some. Not for me. The more hot and humid the better. Bring on record-breaking extremes

It’s like when people want bitter cold in winter. No thanks but I’ll have the absolute opposite please!!

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


I'm all for a bit of comfortable warmth, but not the sort that feels like you are sitting in a steam room for weeks on end!
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Matty H
19 June 2023 10:57:15

I'm all for a bit of comfortable warmth, but not the sort that feels like you are sitting in a steam room for weeks on end!

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 



It’s an extreme so it interests me and I want it. Winter in this country is generally mundane. I’m looking to our summers now to provide the interest
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
+1
Joe Bloggs
19 June 2023 11:38:41

Poor ECM this morning hopefully it's off. Other output looks solid enough but perhaps less hot than looked likely yesterday.  Always better the further south and east you go.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



ECM is an unsettled outlier. 👍 so hopefully it’s just going off on one. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Saint Snow
19 June 2023 11:49:04

Disturbing to see so many mosquitos around. Like being abroad

 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 




That's certainly true.

I'm spraying myself with Jungle Formula each evening (and one little git still got through). Was lay on the sofa the other night and just kept getting that high-pitched buzzing round my ear. Managed to located and squash it (thankfully no blood in it), only for another to take its place about half an hour later.

We have a little paddling pool for the dog to dip in and cool down and Saturday it had about 50 dead mozzies in it. 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Nick Gilly
19 June 2023 14:44:02
BBC Weather home page is now showing showers on Thursday and a light rain symbol for my location on Friday (Whitchurch, north Hampshire). What's changed? Everything I've been seeing has suggested the Azores High ridging back in for the second half of the week.
Super Cell
19 June 2023 15:01:11

BBC Weather home page is now showing showers on Thursday and a light rain symbol for my location on Friday (Whitchurch, north Hampshire). What's changed? Everything I've been seeing has suggested the Azores High ridging back in for the second half of the week.

Originally Posted by: Nick Gilly 



In my experience the BBC automated output bears no relation to anything. I've posted previously about how the MetO page generally is far closer to the outcome.

For Leeds Thursday looks a very nice day according to the Meto with at worst a 10% chance of rain, reflecting I presume, rogue showers. The BBC has showers for most of ten daylight hours with a probability of 49% at one stage and thundery showers. This isn't a rare phenomenon either. Basically I stick with the MetO and don't go TOO far wrong,
Farnley/Pudsey Leeds
40m asl
+3
doctormog
19 June 2023 15:48:11
I may be wrong but I think the BBC automated forecasts are taken directly from the ECM operational run data which may explain the change. If there is a more summery 12z ECM op run later I would expect the forecasts to change accordingly.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+2
Taylor1740
19 June 2023 16:49:44
GFS seems to be quite consistently now in modelling an unsettled end of June/start of July with cooler westerlies. Consistent but likely consistently wrong but we shall see as it has been good in the past at picking up the longer range broad scale pattern.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Rob K
19 June 2023 17:06:39
12Z GFS shows a bit of a change in bringing cooler air in earlier than previously shown.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Remove ads from site

Ads