theweatheroutlook

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Matty H
21 June 2023 19:53:50

yes not sure where it's getting 35c from but I shall ignore it for now. Looking at one of the more established models and the GEFS is now really firming up on a cooler more unsettled spell end of June into July. We shall see if it comes off though as I do feel like the GFS seems to be overly keen on dartboard lows in the Summer.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 



Not just restricted to Summer either. 
Yate, Nr Bristol
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Ally Pally Snowman
21 June 2023 19:59:38

It's 6-10C higher then other output so id take little notice for now 

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 



The UKV has 33c on Sunday so you never know.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
21 June 2023 20:12:36
Yes, UKV is showing 33C as the max.

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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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doctormog
21 June 2023 20:24:56
Since when was the ARPEGE model not “established”? I think it was developed around 30 years ago by Meteo France and the ECMWF.  Its scenario may be one of the more extreme outcomes for the weekend but to dismiss it as not one of the established models is a little strange.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
The Beast from the East
21 June 2023 20:31:54
Quite a dramatic change in the weather next week likely. Central heating back on perhaps! LOL
Just as well Glastonbury will be over
 
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Downpour
21 June 2023 22:03:42

Since when was the ARPEGE model not “established”? I think it was developed around 30 years ago by Meteo France and the ECMWF.  Its scenario may be one of the more extreme outcomes for the weekend but to dismiss it as not one of the established models is a little strange.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Indeed. Not only is it established, it’s an excellent model. Whether it’s right on this occasion is up for grabs. But the French Met Office is a very serious player. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Rob K
22 June 2023 00:14:37

Quite a dramatic change in the weather next week likely. Central heating back on perhaps! LOL
Just as well Glastonbury will be over
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Yes it looks properly awful for the beginning of July. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
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picturesareme
22 June 2023 02:18:38
I wonder what this will do for our summer

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1671503291581079553/photo/1 
 
Retron
22 June 2023 03:40:45

Since when was the ARPEGE model not “established”? I think it was developed around 30 years ago by Meteo France and the ECMWF.  Its scenario may be one of the more extreme outcomes for the weekend but to dismiss it as not one of the established models is a little strange.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


It's older than that, as it got the track of the Great Storm right in 1987... which the Met Office promptly ignored, in favour of their own model. Whoops!
Leysdown, north Kent
Retron
22 June 2023 03:45:10

Quite a dramatic change in the weather next week likely. Central heating back on perhaps! LOL
Just as well Glastonbury will be over
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


I think you'd die of hyperthermia if you turned up the heating next week! 🥵🥵

The 18z GFS, for example, has 24, 24, 28, 29 down here on Monday to Thursday, with plentiful sun. Beyond that is in the land of low-res...

The Met Office output is a little cooler but a) it always undercooks temperatures in a SW'ly here, with "ninja" updates during the day and b) it's still a good 2 or 3C above average as far out as it goes.

Very little chance of rain throughout.

I would love nothing more than a switch to some rain at times, but it's not going to happen by the looks of it - at least not down here.
Leysdown, north Kent
doctormog
22 June 2023 05:58:31

I think you'd die of hyperthermia if you turned up the heating next week! 🥵🥵

The 18z GFS, for example, has 24, 24, 28, 29 down here on Monday to Thursday, with plentiful sun. Beyond that is in the land of low-res...

The Met Office output is a little cooler but a) it always undercooks temperatures in a SW'ly here, with "ninja" updates during the day and b) it's still a good 2 or 3C above average as far out as it goes.

Very little chance of rain throughout.

I would love nothing more than a switch to some rain at times, but it's not going to happen by the looks of it - at least not down here.

Originally Posted by: Retron 



I think he’s more likely to die of hyperbole. 

It does look more mobile and cooler in the medium term but nothing really exceptional. It probably seems more pronounced given our recent conditions and unsurprising given the Sod’s Law and the coinciding impending school holidays in many parts of Scotland.

(Also thanks for the info on ARPEGE - so it is basically one of the more/most established models).
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+4
Jiries
22 June 2023 06:34:54

The UKV has 33c on Sunday so you never know.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


They were right on last hot spell as it shown 30C in Midlands which happened so likely again this weekend. 
Brian Gaze
22 June 2023 06:35:43
UKV showing 33C on Sunday. Arpege 34C.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
22 June 2023 07:03:28
WX temps showing a retreat from the present week 1 warmth over Europe, which extends well N into Scandinavia and (almost) to n Scotland to a situation in week 2 which I would describe as zonal; pleasant warmth for the continent N of the Alps, cool for Scandinavia & Britain except the SE, anything really hot confined to the Med & Black Sea. Dry in week 1 for a narrow band extending N from Spain (to W France, S Britain, Baltic States, rain well distributed elsewhere; then in week 2 wet in two bands, one from Britain to Scandinavia and the other from the Alps to Belarus.

GFS Op - until Tue 27th, HP over the near continent and LP over Iceland generating SW-lies for Britain with the expectation of any less settled weather in the NW. Then the LP pushes SE-wards (995mb Orkney Thu 29th) and the centre removes to mid-Atlantic ushering in NW-lies. From Mon 3rd this has developed into a large area of LP from N Scotland to Sweden bringing air from W or NW even (Wed 5th) briefly N. Pressure over the continent away from the Channel coasts remains relatively high at 1015-1020mb.

ECM - the LP moves down from Iceland a day earlier and then localises over Scotland 985 mb Sun 2nd

GEFS - current warmth dropping back to seasonal norm from Tue 27th with the mean and many ens members predicting temps up and down either side of that norm in the S, but always tending to be a bit below in the N i.e. a cooler forecast than previously. In the far S, some significant rain Fri 30th and for a few days after; more further N, indeed in Scotland starting a day or so earlier and persisting for the forecast period. 
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Chichester 12m asl
+3
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
22 June 2023 07:03:30
WX temps showing a retreat from the present week 1 warmth over Europe, which extends well N into Scandinavia and (almost) to n Scotland to a situation in week 2 which I would describe as zonal; pleasant warmth for the continent N of the Alps, cool for Scandinavia & Britain except the SE, anything really hot confined to the Med & Black Sea. Dry in week 1 for a narrow band extending N from Spain (to W France, S Britain, Baltic States, rain well distributed elsewhere; then in week 2 wet in two bands, one from Britain to Scandinavia and the other from the Alps to Belarus.

GFS Op - until Tue 27th, HP over the near continent and LP over Iceland generating SW-lies for Britain with the expectation of any less settled weather in the NW. Then the LP pushes SE-wards (995mb Orkney Thu 29th) and the HP centre removes to mid-Atlantic ushering in NW-lies. From Mon 3rd this LP has developed into a large area from N Scotland to Sweden bringing air from W or NW even (Wed 5th) briefly N. Pressure over the continent away from the Channel coasts remains relatively high at 1015-1020mb.

ECM - the LP moves down from Iceland a day earlier and then localises over Scotland 985 mb Sun 2nd

GEFS - current warmth dropping back to seasonal norm from Tue 27th with the mean and many ens members predicting temps up and down either side of that norm in the S, but always tending to be a bit below in the N i.e. a cooler forecast than previously. In the far S, some significant rain Fri 30th and for a few days after; more further N, indeed in Scotland starting a day or so earlier and persisting for the forecast period. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
22 June 2023 07:54:59

I think he’s more likely to die of hyperbole. 

It does look more mobile and cooler in the medium term but nothing really exceptional. It probably seems more pronounced given our recent conditions and unsurprising given the Sod’s Law and the coinciding impending school holidays in many parts of Scotland.

(Also thanks for the info on ARPEGE - so it is basically one of the more/most established models).

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

😂
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+1
Chunky Pea
22 June 2023 08:33:47

I wonder what this will do for our summer

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1671503291581079553/photo/1 
 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 



Probably increase the intensity of any Summer showers. Only going by my own data but average rain rates tend to be at their highest in August and September. If we are at that stage now, then how warmer will those ssts be by September? 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

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Charmhills
22 June 2023 09:35:11

Quite a dramatic change in the weather next week likely. Central heating back on perhaps! LOL
Just as well Glastonbury will be over
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



For crying out loud!!!!😃
Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
moomin75
22 June 2023 10:35:56

For crying out loud!!!!😃

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


I'm going to change the habit of a lifetime here, I don't think "summer is over" by any stretch.
Yes. We may well be heading for a cooler and more unsettled spell, but the Azores High is looking very "ridgy" to me, and I feel that any unsettled spell may just be a relatively short-term change.

I am pretty hopeful that we will be back to seeing something settled and warmer soon. Pretty much what the GFS 6Z is showing.

All is most definitely not lost.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
22 June 2023 10:56:37
Lol the GFS 6z hasn't read the cool and unsettled script.  Has a heatwave to start July. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Downpour
22 June 2023 21:51:23

Lol the GFS 6z hasn't read the cool and unsettled script.  Has a heatwave to start July. 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



heatwave next weekend unlikely IMO but the totality of the modelling still indicates another warm weekend for the populous SE quadrant of the UK.
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Taylor1740
23 June 2023 00:38:53

Lol the GFS 6z hasn't read the cool and unsettled script.  Has a heatwave to start July. 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


what about the 12z and 18z though...?
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Ally Pally Snowman
23 June 2023 05:16:49

what about the 12z and 18z though...?

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 



Well the output all round this morning is poor. No escaping a week or two of unsettled conditions by the look of it.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
doctormog
23 June 2023 06:02:51

Well the output all round this morning is poor. No escaping a week or two of unsettled conditions by the look of it.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Taking the GFS op at face value the next week is slightly warmer and slightly wetter than average. No more no less:

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 
http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 

More unsettled and cooler than recently for sure but that wouldn’t be difficult! It will most likely be mixed and showery not atypical for the time of year.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
Joe Bloggs
23 June 2023 06:59:06

Taking the GFS op at face value the next week is slightly warmer and slightly wetter than average. No more no less:

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 
http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 

More unsettled and cooler than recently for sure but that wouldn’t be difficult! It will most likely be mixed and showery not atypical for the time of year.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Those WNW’ly winds in the outlook mean one thing for here - rain, and plenty of it. 

Hopefully the setup won’t last too long. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

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