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doctormog
27 October 2023 07:28:04
Given the flooding already from Storm Babet and the saturated ground, the ECM’s rainfall totals for Angus and parts of E Scotland in general are horrific.

This is the picture by day 10: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/4a04f59a55d47ee2f1126f484fd78c00/accumulated-precipitation/20231106-0000z.html  

 
Retron
27 October 2023 08:14:55

Given the flooding already from Storm Babet and the saturated ground, the ECM’s rainfall totals for Angus and parts of E Scotland in general are horrific.

This is the picture by day 10: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/4a04f59a55d47ee2f1126f484fd78c00/accumulated-precipitation/20231106-0000z.html  

 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


😲

I was too busy looking at the models showing 80+ mph winds down here next Thursday to notice that exceptional rainfall for Scotland... 315mm would be noteworth as a snow depth over 10 days, but rain? Words fail me!
Leysdown, north Kent
The Beast from the East
27 October 2023 08:37:59



As much as the signal for very windy weather this weekend waned, the same signal grows for midweek next week with explosive cyclogenesis potential on the exit region of a very robust jet. Even the ensemble mean, which isn’t normally much help with positioning lows at range, has a deep low over the UK on Thurs. 
I’ve got a hunch this one will be a headliner. 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Looks horrific. Another Storm Eunice for the south. Will have to secure the garage roof as best I can and hope for the best
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Saint Snow
27 October 2023 11:05:00

😲

I was too busy looking at the models showing 80+ mph winds down here next Thursday to notice that exceptional rainfall for Scotland... 315mm would be noteworth as a snow depth over 10 days, but rain? Words fail me!

Originally Posted by: Retron 




It's showing 405mm not far from you!

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
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"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
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ozone_aurora
27 October 2023 14:47:30

You were saying? Photos from the South Downs, January this year.

UserPostedImage

UserPostedImage

Right click to open enlarged in new tab
 

Originally Posted by: DEW 


I thought March was very wet, too.
doctormog
27 October 2023 15:28:41

It's showing 405mm not far from you!

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



Yes, surface water would be a problem.😉

On a more serious note I sincerely hope the 12z ECM is less extreme.
Retron
27 October 2023 16:08:27
Talking of extreme... the 12z ICON has 105mph gusts out in the Atlantic, then the whole lot slams into the UK a couple of days later.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/43/14707/icon_14_120xeh0.png 

There's a period of >80mph gusts along the far south for Thursday, coincidentally where the heaviest rainfall is forecast to be.

It's a bit mean, but I'm hoping for a southerly "correction"!
Leysdown, north Kent
Retron
27 October 2023 17:21:49
Some insane numbers coming out of the 12z suites... both in terms of wind next week and total rainfall.

For the former, the 12z GFS has 51 mean gusting to 71 mph across a large swathe of Kent on Thursday, including here. That would cause utter chaos and a large number of trees to come down. It's by no means alone on the ensembles, with a third having similarly strong - or stronger - winds. The worst one is perturbation 17, which has peak gusts of 92mph here - the only time in living memory it's been windier than that around here is in 1987. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=338&y=147&run=12&ext=1&mode=13&sort=0 

Thankfully it's still 6 days out, and we all know what the accuracy is like at that range. Still, with a westerly regime (which models perform better in), and with a strong jet blasting the UK - somewhere's going to get hit, but whether it's on Thursday or not, and whether it's England, or Wales, or France... remains to be seen.

As for the rain, there's a yellow warning out down here for torrential rain over the weekend, with the main focus being the southern coasts. There was a sample of that earlier, when a 5-minute shower dumped a few mm of rain and some hail, the peak rate being 55mm/hour. I guess it's convection enhanced by the warm English Channel - something which looks like extending into next week too.

As the GFS 12z accumulated chart shows, there's to be a very strong gradient - soaking on the south coast, but much less rain just a little way inland. With the potential gales on Thursday, that could get very messy indeed.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/94/8948/168_777UKxrc6.GIF 

Scotland, meanwhile, has problems of its own - 5 inches of rain over the mountains, and a similar picture for much of Wales too.

All in all - pretty grotty, with no great changes in sight. I have a hunch that the payoff for this will be a settled spell later in November, but we'll see!
Leysdown, north Kent
The Beast from the East
27 October 2023 17:22:05

Talking of extreme... the 12z ICON has 105mph gusts out in the Atlantic, then the whole lot slams into the UK a couple of days later.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/43/14707/icon_14_120xeh0.png 

There's a period of >80mph gusts along the far south for Thursday, coincidentally where the heaviest rainfall is forecast to be.

It's a bit mean, but I'm hoping for a southerly "correction"!

Originally Posted by: Retron 



UKMO looks to be heading south as well? Hopefully a new trend or at least we get the centre of the low pushing directly over London, sparing us the worst
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
nsrobins
27 October 2023 17:29:07

UKMO looks to be heading south as well? Hopefully a new trend or at least we get the centre of the low pushing directly over London, sparing us the worst
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


And ‘us’ is where exactly? Not stating your locality adds fuel to the fire to the ‘only in my back yard’ debate. 
Is it that hard to keep the discussion generalised and not focus on a specific area? 
Asking for a friend.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Brian Gaze
27 October 2023 18:07:04
UK Met takes the strong winds through the channel.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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sunny coast
27 October 2023 18:53:59

I mean 150mm+ already down here this month and around 750mm for the year which is more than the annual average! Definitely don't need more rain!!!

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 



Indeed we are on 900m  here ytd  and after the last 24 hours 160 this month . Very wet alonv the south coast 
sunny coast
27 October 2023 18:55:19

I mean 150mm+ already down here this month and around 750mm for the year which is more than the annual average! Definitely don't need more rain!!!

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 



Indeed we are on 900m  here ytd  and after the last 24 hours 160 this month . Very wet alonv the south coast 
doctormog
27 October 2023 18:59:56
I have recorded 606 mm so far this year with 186 mm of that in the past 4 weeks. There could be another 100 mm in the next ten days or so based on some of the output.
 
The Beast from the East
27 October 2023 19:18:25

And ‘us’ is where exactly? Not stating your locality adds fuel to the fire to the ‘only in my back yard’ debate. 
Is it that hard to keep the discussion generalised and not focus on a specific area? 
Asking for a friend.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Sorry, Purley in North Surrey. The previous forum had my location but it disappeared after the change
Back OT, hope the UKMO is correct
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
picturesareme
27 October 2023 22:59:03

I have recorded 606 mm so far this year with 186 mm of that in the past 4 weeks. There could be another 100 mm in the next ten days or so based on some of the output.
 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



How bizarre that we have actually had more rain down here than you throughout the year - 762mm and counting. Over 100mm in the last 7 days & 166+ for the month. 
picturesareme
27 October 2023 23:17:01
Another little embarrassment for the national hurricane center or should we say the GFS & ECMW.

After the shenanigans regarding hurricane Otis, they now have had to backtrack with tropical storm Tammy. Yesterday it was declared post tropical, and was expected to be absorbed into the weather front sweeping over it. This forecast based on data from said above weather models. 

Anyway 12 hours or so later and Tammy is a tropical cyclone having survived it's brush with the weather front. 

Does make we wonder if the models are getting things so wrong of late how can we be sure of what weather lies ahead.
Jiries
28 October 2023 05:14:19

Another little embarrassment for the national hurricane center or should we say the GFS & ECMW.

After the shenanigans regarding hurricane Otis, they now have had to backtrack with tropical storm Tammy. Yesterday it was declared post tropical, and was expected to be absorbed into the weather front sweeping over it. This forecast based on data from said above weather models. 

Anyway 12 hours or so later and Tammy is a tropical cyclone having survived it's brush with the weather front. 

Does make we wonder if the models are getting things so wrong of late how can we be sure of what weather lies ahead.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 



That why I pointed out how unreliable it had been lately.  The more they upgrade or put more features it get more worst. They need to tone down 50% of it.  
White Meadows
28 October 2023 05:29:29
Hopefully Thursday’s storm gets toned down because at the moment we’re looking at a potential killer. 
doctormog
28 October 2023 06:29:17
It is still a very unsettled outlook for the coming week (and beyond) on this morning’s charts. Lots of rain where it is not needed and the potential for some stormy weather later next week. 
Chunky Pea
28 October 2023 06:36:35

How bizarre that we have actually had more rain down here than you throughout the year - 762mm and counting. Over 100mm in the last 7 days & 166+ for the month. 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 



Amatuer 😋
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
johncs2016
28 October 2023 07:02:39

It is still a very unsettled outlook for the coming week (and beyond) on this morning’s charts. Lots of rain where it is not needed and the potential for some stormy weather later next week. 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Here in Edinburgh as at 7am BST (06:00 UTC) this morning, a total of 245.6 mm of rain still needs to fall between now and the end of the year at Edinburgh Gogarbank along with 154.2 mm at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh in order for this year's rainfall deficit to have been fully made up by the end of the year (that is what is needed to give us a wetter than average year overall in terms of the actual rainfall amounts).

For Edinburgh Gogarbank, that still seems unlikely even with a more unsettled outlook ahead because in the very unlikely event of it staying completely dry until the end of the month, an average of 122.8 mm of rain per month would need to fall there over the last 2 months of this year, and we haven't even come close to that during any of our wettest months so far.

However, more rain is forecast between now and the end of  this month and although there are only 3 days to go until the end of the month after today, that could still be enough to bring down those requirements by quite a bit by then if the latest model output is correct.

A lot of the model output just now is pointing towards a wetter than average November and if the polar vortex gets its act together going in the start of the meteorological winter, that wet (but sadly, rather mild) outlook could well extend into December as well.

Because of that, it is now not out with the realms of possibility that we could still yet, end up with a wetter than average year here overall. That is now already starting to look feasible at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh, and even Edinburgh Gogarbank may well catch up with that before long (Edinburgh Gogarbank is usually wetter on average than the botanic gardens in Edinburgh and being further west as well, it would stand to get the greater amounts of rain during the rest of this year on average if the wind goes more towards the SW).

At the moment, we're only talking about an outside chance of a wetter than average year here, but even that is a massive change from not all that long ago when we were in a water scarcity situation according to SEPA and looking almost certain to end up with what would be our second back to back drier than average year.
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
28 October 2023 07:32:14
WX temp charts relax the colder outlook compared to yesterday. Week 1 much as before, cold in far NE Europe, both absolutely and compared to average, warm in Balkans again both absolutely and compared to average, and more or less normal for the time of year in between. In week 2, the freezing area retreats E-wards rather than expanding as had been predicted and although the rest of Europe cools (and the Balkans cool a lot) there isn't so sharp a change there. The rainfall pattern has also changed for week 2; the Rain sticks with Atlantic coastal countries incl Britain for both weeks instead of moving south, though N Italy does have some heavy rain in week 1.

GFS Op - LP moving E across Britain, to 980mb stretching from SW Ireland to Firth of Forth. This fills, and the new storm commented on above arrives 960mb Brittany Thu 2nd with S-ly extreme gales affecting all except the far N (formerly charts put it over Dorset). The following day it has moved to E Anglia 970mb and the gales are NW-ly.  By Sat 4th there is a new deep LP 950mb sited in a more usual position off N Ireland. The following week sees the return of the westerlies with LP near Iceland and HP near Spain, often with SW-ly gales, until the Icelandic LP moves SE-ly to the N Sea 1000mb Sun 12th with N-lies following behind.

ECM - makes Thursday's storm even deeper 955mb SW Ireland with the W of Britain more affected by the gales. By Sun 5th it has filled somewhat and has moved to 965mb English Channel; then slowly moving NE-wards bringing NE-ly winds behind it, with (very unlike GFS) pressure rising on the Atlantic.

GEFS - temps close to or a little below norm with good ens agreement until about Thu 9th when a spread either side of norm develops. Plenty of rain throughout, more in S & W, less in N & E esp later (contrary to MetO which is forecasting particularly heavy rain for E Scotland)
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
28 October 2023 07:59:16
Uncertainty about where it lands but the low does look potent for Thursday. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=120&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
The Beast from the East
28 October 2023 08:29:13

Uncertainty about where it lands but the low does look potent for Thursday. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=120&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Lets just hope it trends further west like the one before and hit ireland. Still time for a change in track but this does look ominous. 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President

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