theweatheroutlook

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Ally Pally Snowman
30 November 2023 18:51:17
Decent snow event for central England on the ECM 12z for Saturday night. 
And another day 9 easterly
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Polar Low
30 November 2023 18:58:10
Tremendous fight from the block ecm very cold air digging in Eastern Europe.
very encouraging for cold weather fans
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=0&map=0&type=0&archive=0 
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0 
 
nsrobins
30 November 2023 19:05:03

Tremendous fight from the block ecm very cold air digging in Eastern Europe.
very encouraging for cold weather fans
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=0&map=0&type=0&archive=0 
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0 
 

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Agreed - ECM is a knats slider away from being a  Cobra run. Interesting.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Heavy Weather 2013
30 November 2023 19:15:36

Agreed - ECM is a knats slider away from being a  Cobra run. Interesting.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Indeed.I said this morning that we shouldn’t be down. So much potential in the outlook. I was also happy with the 12z GFS in the medium term, it had potential. Let’s see how things go over next few days. If signal remain into tomorrows runs I’ll be getting excited.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
CField
30 November 2023 20:01:40
Great contest this Modern era  versus Old School ...
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Ally Pally Snowman
30 November 2023 20:04:45
ECM ensembles look very interesting the Op is one of the mildest with plenty going cold by the 6th.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Polar Low
30 November 2023 20:19:24
Control run was a corker severe cold heading west’ successful undercutting with monster beast.
https://www.weerplaza.nl/gdata/eps/eps_pluim_tt_06260.png 
 
ballamar
30 November 2023 20:28:28

Control run was a corker severe cold heading west’ successful undercutting with monster beast.
https://www.weerplaza.nl/gdata/eps/eps_pluim_tt_06260.png 
 

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


outlier but not on its own 

Just to add thinks someone made a comparison to last year - completely different. Potential to tap into some real cold only low percentage but tantalisingly close. Could be some rascal ls in the ENS over next few days
Rob K
30 November 2023 20:38:01

Control run was a corker severe cold heading west’ successful undercutting with monster beast.
https://www.weerplaza.nl/gdata/eps/eps_pluim_tt_06260.png 
 

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


One eyebrow raised 🤨
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Polar Low
30 November 2023 20:45:40
Brian has noted
 
ECM 12Z also looks very favourable for a continuation of cold weather as we head towards the middle of December. In fact, a bitterly cold spell could quickly develop *if* the evolution it shows is correct
Polar Low
30 November 2023 20:56:01
Brian Gaze
30 November 2023 21:18:37
ECM ENS still supports average to mild weather in the south > 07/12. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/ecm-tables.aspx?run=12&fv=tmp2m&loc=london&lat=51.5&lon=0&p=&cty= 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
squish
30 November 2023 21:31:43
18z ICON again consistent in lows trending towards undercutting 
https://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/archives/2023113018/iconnh-0-120.png?18 

at +120 even the low off Newfoundland is starting to undercut the cold airmass that extends across the North Atlantic 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Russwirral
30 November 2023 21:51:24
Alot of cold building up towards siberia on all models today... possibly record breaking.

Something very cold brewing

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
doctormog
30 November 2023 21:56:13
If the GFS 18z run follows the earlier ensembles it will show much milder across all parts by the 7th. If it doesn’t it will be an interesting sign.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Gusty
30 November 2023 22:04:29
Its shaping up to be a fairly volatile spell of the weather next week. Sharp boundaries between cold air across the north of the UK and milder air across the south. 
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



White Meadows
30 November 2023 22:25:42
Lots of high lat blocking showing it’s hand around the globe, notibly so over northern Canada, polar vortex goes awol but still the Atlantic lows barrel up to Iceland relentlessly keeping the cold locked over mainland Europe. 
 
Rob K
30 November 2023 22:32:12
18Z GFS says sorry, not this time!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
ballamar
30 November 2023 22:48:53

18Z GFS says sorry, not this time!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


just the op run I think there might be a few teasers in the ENS
Gandalf The White
30 November 2023 23:30:08

18Z GFS says sorry, not this time!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



GFS says sorry, FI starts this weekend….
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


CField
01 December 2023 03:43:19
Isolated piece of polar vortex over Canada...this could curve the remaining arm towards eastern Iceland(hopefully)....a renewed surge of WAA mid Atlantic could see a really cold northerly set up which could really kick start winter in our neck of woods....on the other hand...
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
White Meadows
01 December 2023 04:44:14
00z looking very wet in the west. Flooding a distinct possibility.
 
Heavy Weather 2013
01 December 2023 05:42:33
The 0z GFS is loaded with potential down the line. Lots to be resolved. Looking at the ensembles there is now a clear possibility into middle next week that it continues cold.

Longer term it was at the top of the pack, but looking at the pressure patterns there is a lot to play for, as the ensembles equally show anything could happen.

Fasinating. 
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
+1
Heavy Weather 2013
01 December 2023 06:57:27
ECM 0z is very progressive and not a great run. Will be interesting to see where this sits.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
doctormog
01 December 2023 07:06:46

It is weird how the 0z runs have been more progressive recently, but ones later in the day go the other way. It's been mentioned a few times, but I've not paid any attention as it's not logical with the way the models work.  However it keeps happening and it's getting to the stage where it might be more than a statistical anomaly.

Originally Posted by: overland 



Bump.

Coincidence? I guess we may find out later!
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 

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