Given the wild swings in GFS and other outputs yesterday, the charts described here are 'as is' - or as Groucho Marx nearly said "If you don't like my forecasts, I have others" . Just come back later ...
WX temp charts - in week 1 France, Spain and Britain are near norm, around the Aegean is above norm, while the rest of Europe is definitely cold. In week 2 the milder air spreads further E-wards, to Poland, while the tongue of ultra-cold air from the NE recedes, forming a larger but broader mass covering all of Russia from Moscow E-wards. Pptn much as yesterday, i.e. for both weeks affecting Atlantic coastal countries with an extension through the Alps to the Aegean, the extension becoming more prominent in week 2.
GFS Op - Light N-ly drift to start with before HP over S Russia 1050mb preventing Atlantic LPs making inland progress, the first of these Tue 5th reaches Kent 995mb before filling in situ. The next two LPs 970mb Fri 8th N England, 985mb Tue 12th Ireland, tend to drift up the coast of Norway, then an LP 985 mb Thu 14th Cornwall heading SE-wards, yet another 990 mb Orkney Sun 17th heading NE-wards. Wind directions most often from the S but plenty of interludes with variations from all points of the compass.
ECM - similar to GFS though LPs tending to be deeper with stronger winds/gales from the SW.
GEM has little to add to the above
GEFS - briefly wet and almost mild in the S Wed 4th otherwise dry but everywhere recovering from cold to norm by Thu 7th with good ens agreement. Then the mean and most runs stay close to or a little below norm but a significant number (jncl control) dip deeply on the cold side. Rain everywhere from the 7th, very heavy in SW, small chances of snow in the far N.
Edited by user
01 December 2023 07:51:50
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Reason: Not specified
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