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Saint Snow
04 December 2023 17:38:43


Looking at today's 12Z output, both GFS and GEM are suggesting high pressure taking up residence over the UK, which would be quite welcome tbh.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 




Yay! 'Faux' Cold.

😉

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
tierradelfuego
04 December 2023 18:33:03

Looking at today's 12Z output, both GFS and GEM are suggesting high pressure taking up residence over the UK, which would be quite welcome tbh.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



An interesting turnaround, I can't remember that been shown as an option on the Op at least recently. Will be interesting to see where it is in the GEFS when I get a chance to look.

I'd take "faux" cold over mild rubbish SS. As much as breaking 1000mm in year down here for the first time in my records would be noteworthy, I'd prefer not to...😎

Edit - looks like pretty much top of the pack from a MLSP perspective, so unlikely but who knows. Pressure does look to rise across the runs but not as much as the 12z in general.
Bucklebury
West Berkshire Downs AONB
135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS
Rainfall collector separated at ground level
Anemometer separated above roof level
WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Weather)
Saint Snow
04 December 2023 19:32:16

.

I'd take "faux" cold over mild rubbish SS.

Originally Posted by: tierradelfuego 



Oh, me too! 😀

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
ballamar
04 December 2023 19:33:07
Would welcome cold under a static HP makes it feel festive with frost potentially persisting with fog early and late sometimes persisting. Unless it full of trapped cloud!
Saint Snow
04 December 2023 22:13:22
ECM looks best of the 12z runs at the end. 

Heights to our SW still our nemesis, though.

One aspect of the Dec 2010 spell was that the AH kept sodding off a few thousand miles eastwards and was closer to the Caribbean than Cornwall (or, if you prefer, moved northwards to sit either over the UK or up over Greenland... whatever, it was not hovering to our SW like an unwanted smell)

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
DPower
04 December 2023 22:45:33

Someone mentioned something about a possible stratospheric warming over Canada later this month a week or so back in the last thread IIRC, Brian. I don't think much if anything has been said about it since, though.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


That might of been me. I posted last week about a Canadian warming that would weaken the spv and may help to promote a ssw further down the line. Even a weakened spv with greatly reduced zonal winds can deliver the goods ( if its cold your after) to the UK and Europe. 
The holy grail would be a ssw causing a split vortex with a core of the vortex down into northern Europe and cross polar geopotential  heights from the northern Atlantic over to the Pacific. Unfortunately we all know from experience that even a ssw does not always produce the goods, take the ssw in early Jan of 2019. All the teleconnection so called experts with the mjo in a highly amplified phase 8 along with strat enthusiasts were eagerly anticipating the arrival of winter nirvana, hell even the met were onboard. The result was zilch, nada. The ssw did not downwell into the troposphere and the mjo did not produce either. 
There are no guarantees with the weather as most on here are aware. The other forum are making a lot of noise about the upcoming next mjo wave of westerly wind bursts into the Pacific in about 10 to 15 days time starting to coincide with a much reduced stratosphere zonal winds in time for Christmas and the holidays, but again I have seen these fail so many times that caution is required. 
There are signs that this could be one of the most exciting winters for many years. It will be very interesting to see how it unfolds.
+1
ballamar
04 December 2023 23:00:33
GFS Op looks like it’s about to get interesting with a bit of retrogression after a week of blocking high
Gandalf The White
04 December 2023 23:09:48

GFS Op looks like it’s about to get interesting with a bit of retrogression after a week of blocking high

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



A bit of an understatement, since we look like ending up in the firing line for a broad, cold northerly just in time for Xmas.

What’s the expression….  More runs….
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


tallyho_83
04 December 2023 23:50:44

A bit of an understatement, since we look like ending up in the firing line for a broad, cold northerly just in time for Xmas.

What’s the expression….  More runs….

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



1085mb must be a record haha!> If only....? it was 24hrs away??

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_348_1.png 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


ballamar
04 December 2023 23:54:35

A bit of an understatement, since we look like ending up in the firing line for a broad, cold northerly just in time for Xmas.

What’s the expression….  More runs….

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Have to start somewhere definitely an extreme run though !
CField
05 December 2023 05:30:09
Heights to the south seem to be in full control on latest 0z run...looking like cool at best
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
nsrobins
05 December 2023 07:20:15
The GEFS have settled into the sort of sinusoidal noise that doesn’t bode well for anyone wanting a cold, settled Christmas.
I’ll come back and check in a week.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Ally Pally Snowman
05 December 2023 07:32:15

The GEFS have settled into the sort of sinusoidal noise that doesn’t bode well for anyone wanting a cold, settled Christmas.
I’ll come back and check in a week.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Yes its not looking good atm. Over on NW lots of talk about favourable teleconnections for 2nd half of December/early January.  But we hear this every year and it rarely delivers. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Heavy Weather 2013
05 December 2023 07:32:23

The GEFS have settled into the sort of sinusoidal noise that doesn’t bode well for anyone wanting a cold, settled Christmas.
I’ll come back and check in a week.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



They’re a few crumbs, but that it’s. The PV has taken up residence near Canada and no stability in any blocking. 

Background signals do suggest end of December. I said last week, I’d want to be seeing something by the end of this week. I am still hoping, but I do fear the long awaited Christmas snow may pass us by for another year.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Brian Gaze
05 December 2023 07:39:37
The ideas doing the rounds are:

1) A major cold spell is on the way from 20/12
2) An SSW is expected in early Jan

On point 1, there is no real evidence in the available model output. Unless GloSea, which I've not seen, suggests it. I assume the idea is entirely teleconnection based. It's risky putting all eggs in that basket

On point 2, I think there is a chance of a major SSW in early Jan, but it is far from certain. Even if it happens we may not feel the effects until February, if at all. If we do they don't assure cold weather, just increase the possibility. 

With the above said, the GEFS stamps don't look especially mild at longer range and some show a slower Atlantic. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
05 December 2023 07:39:38
WX temps looks like yesterday with its prediction of a retreat of cold air back towards the east. Week 1 has W Europe with temps not far from norm for the time of year, ranging from above in Spain to just below in Poland, and then in week 2 the area which is freezing pulls back well into Russia and the ultra-freezing virtually disappears  Rain a little different near the Atlantic week 1, heaviest around Britain and  France, bigger difference in week 2 as rain moves to the SE, not NE, with the wet area mainly from C Europe to the Black Sea

GFS Op - week 1 LPs moving over or near Britain and off to the NE being diverted by blocking LP over S Russia (deepest LPs; today 1000mb Dover, 965mb Fri 8th W Ireland but rain preceding this across England, 985mb Mon 11th Shetland). Week 2 pressure rises to the S which with LP near Iceland gives a strong zonal W-ly flow from Thu 14th (highest pressure; 1040mb Sun 17th Cornwall)

ECM - similar to GFS; the LP Mon 11th over Scottish border rather than Shetland, persisting; and when the zonal flow starts up, it's more of s SW-ly with a ridge forming to N Norway

GEFS - becoming milder around Sun 10th  (in the S, really mild) before settling on seasonal norm a couple of days later, all with fair agreement, then a lot of variation either side of norm. Rain from time to time in most places, suggestion of a drier period near Fri 15th esp in S & E. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
nsrobins
05 December 2023 08:03:59
And the data - here is the link to the ECM zonal wind forecast ensemble. I’m an advocate for taking the mean when you’re presented with such a large helping of bolognese, and on that basis there is no SSW (reversal at 10HPa) forecast. As Darren explained yesterday, there is a trend for a significant reduction, but only about 20% go for technical SSW.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=20231204000 0

At the moment it’s looking like another year when we’re already clutching at the teleconnections and SSW straws. 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
+1
Brian Gaze
05 December 2023 08:16:02
Here's the GEFS35 10hPa zonal wind speed data. There is a huge spread by early January, albeit with the mean showing a notable slowdown.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
The Beast from the East
05 December 2023 09:45:02



At the moment it’s looking like another year when we’re already clutching at the teleconnections and SSW straws. 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Feels like Deja vu from a year ago. But a week earlier. Models flirted with blocking at day 10 range but never came and the jet raged on all winter.  At least some in the north got to see some snow and at least we had a few sharp frosts down south. But this could well be it at we get stuck in the usual rut 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Saint Snow
05 December 2023 10:21:47
Even the straws are deserting us!

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Quantum
05 December 2023 10:35:14

Even the straws are deserting us!

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



Scandanavia is still very cold for the time of year, as is siberia. MJO is looking favourable in a few weeks.

And the models can flip pretty quickly. We might see some tasty charts at the 144h mark by tonight; certainly crazier things have happened.
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
+1
Heavy Weather 2013
05 December 2023 11:01:27
Starting to feel the enthusiasm drain away. Of course it’s not wise to say Winter is over. But I’ve seen this script before.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
nsrobins
05 December 2023 11:17:01

Starting to feel the enthusiasm drain away. Of course it’s not wise to say Winter is over. But I’ve seen this script before.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


‘Now is the winter of our discontent, 
. . . And all the clouds that lour'd upon our house
In the deep bosom of the ocean buried.’

That’s a forecast for a typical Atlantic-driven winter if ever there was. Clever chap that Shakespeare 🙂
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
+1
Gandalf The White
05 December 2023 11:23:11

‘Now is the winter of our discontent, 
. . . And all the clouds that lour'd upon our house
In the deep bosom of the ocean buried.’

That’s a forecast for a typical Atlantic-driven winter if ever there was. Clever chap that Shakespeare

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



”… is that a jet stream I see before me, its core towards these shores?….”

He was indeed… 😉
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+2
cultman1
05 December 2023 11:32:13
John Hammond on LBC radio this morning remarked that the second half of the month could turn drier and somewhat colder and implied  large areas of Europe are experiencing exceptional cold and this may impact our climate moving forward? 

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