theweatheroutlook

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ballamar
10 December 2023 08:24:13
All a bit disappointing now for cold, looks like the small window of opportunity might have gone now. 
Gandalf The White
10 December 2023 08:38:06

All a bit disappointing now for cold, looks like the small window of opportunity might have gone now. 

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



The trend over several days has been for the pattern to flatten out, with diminishing signs of high latitude blocking. The evidence in the ensemble suite is pretty stark. High pressure looks like offering a much needed drier, calmer interlude but its position has been trending south and the retrogression has gone.

We will have to wait patiently for renewed signs of a significant pattern change.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
10 December 2023 08:42:11
WX temp charts show the coldest weather progressively shrinking away to the NE, and the ultra cold weather over Siberia fading entirely. In contrast, W Europe is quite mild in week 1 but cools down to a seasonal norm in week 2 with colder patches in mountainous areas. Rain in much of Europe in week 1 with the heaviest localised along an axis from S France to Hungary, the  rain moving south in week 2 and creating a dry area in those places, plus England. There's also rain in the N Atlantic Iceland/N Scotland/ Norway in week 2.

GFS Op - current LP moving E-wards replaced by another 995mb Irish Sea Tue 12th, both finishing up as a single centre in SE Europe by Fri 15th. There follows a period with HP over or close to Britain and LP over or close to Scandinavia ; when the HP is dominant, Britain is calm and settled (Sat 16th and Tue 26th) but conversely when LP is dominant (Sat 23rd) there are cold and strong N/NW-ly winds. Major retrogression of the HP to mid-Atlantic as shown on some charts yesterday is absent.

ECM - the HP  is placed over England so Scotland is breezier Sat 16th, and then does retrogress so by Wed 20th a colder N-ly flow is beginning.

GEM - between the above, perhaps closer to ECM

GEFS - some rain at first with temps near norm; mild or v mild and dry Sat 16th - Tue 19th after which temps decrease sharply. Ens members then disagree on whether it goes back to mild or stays cool though most remain dry except for the far NW
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
Brian Gaze
10 December 2023 08:58:12

I know that you are the only person on my own official list of YouTubers (which also includes Gavin P. and Mark Vogan) to have gone for a milder than average winter, but I also know that this wasn't by a very big margin.

Meanwhile, everyone else on that list has gone for an average or slightly colder than average winter which means that if this winter does end up with any overall extremes in temperatures, everybody's forecast for that is then going to be a complete bust regardless of whether it ends up being extremely cold overall, or extremely mild overall.

It might be more interesting to see what the cnce are of that happening.

 

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 



I strongly factor in recent climatology. We have only had one month below the  61-90 CET since 2021 and that was last December. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
ballamar
10 December 2023 11:12:35
Small glimmer of hope for a white Xmas on GFS op run! Prob worth a screenshot 😂
Brian Gaze
10 December 2023 11:45:33
Here's a static of it.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+1
ballamar
10 December 2023 12:01:34

Here's a static of it.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



can do a great test on the one op run showing a decent set up and how accurate it is! So 15 degrees and sunny is my prediction 😂
CField
10 December 2023 12:04:00

Here's a static of it.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

look forward to seeing the slush on my wiper blades 
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Gandalf The White
10 December 2023 14:04:57

look forward to seeing the slush on my wiper blades 

Originally Posted by: CField 



Are you planning to out and about in the evening of Christmas Day ?  😉
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


CField
10 December 2023 15:12:42

Are you planning to out and about in the evening of Christmas Day ?  😉

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

lol I'm.actually a Kent County Council gritter driver....might pick up a few runs before Xmas....worse case was this time last year Tunbridge Wells  got 6 inches ...Town centre was full of Xmas shoppers who didn't take heed of the Met Office warning...the shout was too late and the result was gridlock chaos and roads like skating rinks...cars were literally sliding down the hill....
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Roger Parsons
10 December 2023 15:59:36

lol I'm.actually a Kent County Council gritter driver....might pick up a few runs before Xmas....worse case was this time last year Tunbridge Wells  got 6 inches ...Town centre was full of Xmas shoppers who didn't take heed of the Met Office warning...the shout was too late and the result was gridlock chaos and roads like skating rinks...cars were literally sliding down the hill....

Originally Posted by: CField 

This gets my "Reply of the year!" award. Respect!
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+2
White Meadows
10 December 2023 16:05:25
Quite a few signs Uncle Barty coming home to roost on the last few runs. 
Gandalf The White
10 December 2023 16:06:09

lol I'm.actually a Kent County Council gritter driver....might pick up a few runs before Xmas....worse case was this time last year Tunbridge Wells  got 6 inches ...Town centre was full of Xmas shoppers who didn't take heed of the Met Office warning...the shout was too late and the result was gridlock chaos and roads like skating rinks...cars were literally sliding down the hill....

Originally Posted by: CField 



Wow, I certainly don’t envy you in that role.  I guess it’s OK when the roads are quiet; must be a nightmare in the situation you describe.

I remember after the thunder snow about 20 years back it was similar - the snow was unexpectedly heavy and the main roads just became gridlocked.  I used the back roads, which although slippery were almost empty.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
Gandalf The White
10 December 2023 16:07:48

Quite a few signs Uncle Barty coming home to roost on the last few runs. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



The charts are not showing a Bartlett set-up.  A Euro high is not a Bartlett, nor is a mid-Atlantic block…
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Ally Pally Snowman
10 December 2023 16:36:02
Much better northerly on the GFS 12z by day 10. GEM 12z not interested in the slightest though.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
10 December 2023 17:57:33
UKM Global going very mild next weekend.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
White Meadows
10 December 2023 19:31:01

UKM Global going very mild next weekend.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



With the current output, we could be staring down the barrel of an all time mildest pre Christmas period of all time.
To rub salt into the wounds ECM continues to inflate/ deflate/ repeat Eurotrash high which supports many of this evening’s GFS members 🤢🤢🤢
doctormog
10 December 2023 20:05:09
Under anticyclonic conditions it looks nowhere close to the mildest pre-Christmas period and that is before we consider any cold incursion from the north.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
David M Porter
10 December 2023 20:10:38

Under anticyclonic conditions it looks nowhere close to the mildest pre-Christmas period and that is before we consider any cold incursion from the north.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



There certainly wasn't any mention on the BBC week ahead forecasts I saw at lunchtime today and then during Countryfile of any exceptionally mild temperatures being predicted. A little bit above average quite possibly, but nothing that threatens any records.

Were the models showing a long-fetch SW airflow developing, then perhaps, but as far as I can see none of them are showing this kind of set-up.
 
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Gandalf The White
10 December 2023 20:28:58

With the current output, we could be staring down the barrel of an all time mildest pre Christmas period of all time.
To rub salt into the wounds ECM continues to inflate/ deflate/ repeat Eurotrash high which supports many of this evening’s GFS members 🤢🤢🤢

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



ECM midday temperatures for the Northern Home Counties from next Saturday through to Wednesday: 9, 9, 11, 11, 4…
6am values: 4, 7, 8, 11, 3…

I’d say that overall that was average to slightly mild, trending cold.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
doctormog
10 December 2023 20:40:16

ECM midday temperatures for the Northern Home Counties from next Saturday through to Wednesday: 9, 9, 11, 11, 4…
6am values: 4, 7, 8, 11, 3…

I’d say that overall that was average to slightly mild, trending cold.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



Yes, and I think those temperatures are quite representative of the model output overall. To be honest I will welcome the break from the incessant rain. We are already at over 120% of the average monthly total and there’s a warning out for rain here on Tuesday and Wednesday too.

Bring this on, it may not be really mild or really cold but it looks dry! https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_150_1.png 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
ballamar
10 December 2023 20:55:10
If the HP settle a at all over the UK then fog could become a problem and it would be cold, even if the uppers are warm. People tend to remember the temperature at sea level not in the upper levels!
Brian Gaze
10 December 2023 21:45:03
ECM ENS 50 + control run MSLP stamps for Christmas Day are available in the X below or to members from the link.

Wrt the mid latitude block, I'm generally not at all keen on them. To deliver cold surface conditions there isn't much scope for error and more often than not we end up with mild weather. 


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwfens.aspx 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Lionel Hutz
10 December 2023 21:48:20

ECM midday temperatures for the Northern Home Counties from next Saturday through to Wednesday: 9, 9, 11, 11, 4…
6am values: 4, 7, 8, 11, 3…

I’d say that overall that was average to slightly mild, trending cold.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



Suits me, I have a weekend in London coming up next weekend. The last thing I want is to be away from home for a cold spell, so mild next weekend is fine by me. But talk from some(not you, GtW) of a mild Christmas is extremely premature. It seems we'll be into a High Pressure regime next weekend. Where we go thereafter is anybody's guess. The HP could drift South, in which case, mild it will be. Equally, it may drift North, in which case it's game on. Either way, beyond 144, it really is guesswork 
Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



CField
11 December 2023 05:34:30
Except for the slight mid Atlantic loop at 384hrs 0z run that's got to be the longest flat long fetch south westerly I've ever seen....from New York to Vladivostock.....
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius

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